Touchline, Saturday 12 September 2026

Today at a glance

Matches priced307 leagues

Published picks21cleared the Value bar

Tracked only9recorded, not sold

Kickoffs15:00–22:15Vienna time

Value 21 Stale 5 Lean 3 Pass 1

Published picks

Only fixtures that cleared the Value bar against a de-vigged Pinnacle price in a liquid market. Everything else on the board is tracked, not sold.

Sat 12 Sep, 16:00Premier League
Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest
Bet: Nottingham Forest +0.75 (AH) @ 3.90
Bet365
3.90 Real
Fair
2.31 Model
Edge
+68.7% Model
Bet365 3.90 vs Pinnacle fair 2.31 on Nottingham Forest +0.75 (AH): EV +68.7%. The gap clears the Value bar and Pinnacle's margin is tight enough to trust the reference. Prices imply 1.46 goals for Aston Villa and 1.15 for Nottingham Forest.
Sat 12 Sep, 16:00Premier League
Bournemouth vs Brentford
Bet: Brentford +1 (AH) @ 4.25
Bet365
4.25 Real
Fair
2.09 Model
Edge
+103.3% Model
Bet365 4.25 vs Pinnacle fair 2.09 on Brentford +1 (AH): EV +103.3%. The gap clears the Value bar and Pinnacle's margin is tight enough to trust the reference. Prices imply 1.59 goals for Bournemouth and 1.48 for Brentford.
Sat 12 Sep, 16:00Premier League
Crystal Palace vs Ipswich
Bet: Ipswich +0.5 (AH) @ 3.70
Bet365
3.70 Real
Fair
2.69 Model
Edge
+37.4% Model
Bet365 3.70 vs Pinnacle fair 2.69 on Ipswich +0.5 (AH): EV +37.4%. The gap clears the Value bar and Pinnacle's margin is tight enough to trust the reference. Prices imply 1.77 goals for Crystal Palace and 1.14 for Ipswich.
Sat 12 Sep, 18:30Premier League
Tottenham vs Everton
Bet: Everton +0.5 (AH) @ 3.45
Bet365
3.45 Real
Fair
2.54 Model
Edge
+35.9% Model
Bet365 3.45 vs Pinnacle fair 2.54 on Everton +0.5 (AH): EV +35.9%. The gap clears the Value bar and Pinnacle's margin is tight enough to trust the reference. Prices imply 1.74 goals for Tottenham and 1.22 for Everton.
Sat 12 Sep, 15:30Bundesliga
1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart
Bet: 1899 Hoffenheim -1 (AH) @ 3.45
Bet365
3.45 Real
Fair
1.88 Model
Edge
+83.8% Model
Bet365 3.45 vs Pinnacle fair 1.88 on 1899 Hoffenheim -1 (AH): EV +83.8%. The gap clears the Value bar and Pinnacle's margin is tight enough to trust the reference. Prices imply 1.99 goals for 1899 Hoffenheim and 1.77 for VfB Stuttgart.
Sat 12 Sep, 15:30Bundesliga
FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen
Bet: FC Augsburg -0.5 (AH) @ 3.55
Bet365
3.55 Real
Fair
2.61 Model
Edge
+36.2% Model
Bet365 3.55 vs Pinnacle fair 2.61 on FC Augsburg -0.5 (AH): EV +36.2%. The gap clears the Value bar and Pinnacle's margin is tight enough to trust the reference. Prices imply 1.47 goals for FC Augsburg and 2.09 for Bayer Leverkusen.
Sat 12 Sep, 15:30Bundesliga
FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt
Bet: Eintracht Frankfurt +0.75 (AH) @ 4.25
Bet365
4.25 Real
Fair
2.60 Model
Edge
+63.8% Model
Bet365 4.25 vs Pinnacle fair 2.60 on Eintracht Frankfurt +0.75 (AH): EV +63.8%. The gap clears the Value bar and Pinnacle's margin is tight enough to trust the reference. Prices imply 2.07 goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.34 for Eintracht Frankfurt.
Sat 12 Sep, 18:30Bundesliga
1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen
Bet: Werder Bremen +0.75 (AH) @ 4.00
Bet365
4.00 Real
Fair
2.42 Model
Edge
+65.0% Model
Bet365 4.00 vs Pinnacle fair 2.42 on Werder Bremen +0.75 (AH): EV +65.0%. The gap clears the Value bar and Pinnacle's margin is tight enough to trust the reference. Prices imply 1.83 goals for 1. FC Köln and 1.39 for Werder Bremen.
Sat 12 Sep, 16:15La Liga
Osasuna vs Espanyol
Bet: Espanyol +0.75 (AH) @ 4.25
Bet365
4.25 Real
Fair
2.29 Model
Edge
+86.0% Model
Bet365 4.25 vs Pinnacle fair 2.29 on Espanyol +0.75 (AH): EV +86.0%. The gap clears the Value bar and Pinnacle's margin is tight enough to trust the reference. Prices imply 1.28 goals for Osasuna and 1.01 for Espanyol.
Sat 12 Sep, 18:30La Liga
Athletic Club vs Elche
Bet: Elche +0.25 (AH) @ 6.25
Bet365
6.25 Real
Fair
4.51 Model
Edge
+38.4% Model
Bet365 6.25 vs Pinnacle fair 4.51 on Elche +0.25 (AH): EV +38.4%. The gap clears the Value bar and Pinnacle's margin is tight enough to trust the reference. Prices imply 2.19 goals for Athletic Club and 0.79 for Elche.
Sat 12 Sep, 15:00Serie A
Genoa vs Frosinone
Bet: Genoa -0.75 (AH) @ 2.60
Bet365
2.60 Real
Fair
1.76 Model
Edge
+47.3% Model
Bet365 2.60 vs Pinnacle fair 1.76 on Genoa -0.75 (AH): EV +47.3%. The gap clears the Value bar and Pinnacle's margin is tight enough to trust the reference. Prices imply 1.55 goals for Genoa and 1.24 for Frosinone.
Sat 12 Sep, 18:00Serie A
Lazio vs AC Milan
Bet: Lazio -1 (AH) @ 7.00
Bet365
7.00 Real
Fair
2.28 Model
Edge
+207.6% Model
Bet365 7.00 vs Pinnacle fair 2.28 on Lazio -1 (AH): EV +207.6%. The gap clears the Value bar and Pinnacle's margin is tight enough to trust the reference. Prices imply 0.97 goals for Lazio and 1.40 for AC Milan.
Sat 12 Sep, 20:45Serie A
Atalanta vs Cagliari
Bet: Cagliari +0.25 (AH) @ 4.25
Bet365
4.25 Real
Fair
3.54 Model
Edge
+20.1% Model
Bet365 4.25 vs Pinnacle fair 3.54 on Cagliari +0.25 (AH): EV +20.1%. The gap clears the Value bar and Pinnacle's margin is tight enough to trust the reference. Prices imply 1.77 goals for Atalanta and 0.90 for Cagliari.
Sat 12 Sep, 17:15Ligue 1
Strasbourg vs Monaco
Bet: Strasbourg -0.75 (AH) @ 4.10
Bet365
4.10 Real
Fair
2.40 Model
Edge
+71.0% Model
Bet365 4.10 vs Pinnacle fair 2.40 on Strasbourg -0.75 (AH): EV +71.0%. The gap clears the Value bar and Pinnacle's margin is tight enough to trust the reference. Prices imply 1.40 goals for Strasbourg and 1.82 for Monaco.
Sat 12 Sep, 20:45Ligue 1
Lorient vs Toulouse
Bet: Toulouse +1 (AH) @ 5.25
Bet365
5.25 Real
Fair
2.11 Model
Edge
+148.7% Model
Bet365 5.25 vs Pinnacle fair 2.11 on Toulouse +1 (AH): EV +148.7%. The gap clears the Value bar and Pinnacle's margin is tight enough to trust the reference. Prices imply 1.43 goals for Lorient and 1.31 for Toulouse.
Sat 12 Sep, 20:45Ligue 1
Paris FC vs Lyon
Bet: Paris FC -1 (AH) @ 4.10
Bet365
4.10 Real
Fair
1.99 Model
Edge
+106.5% Model
Bet365 4.10 vs Pinnacle fair 1.99 on Paris FC -1 (AH): EV +106.5%. The gap clears the Value bar and Pinnacle's margin is tight enough to trust the reference. Prices imply 1.58 goals for Paris FC and 1.56 for Lyon.
Sat 12 Sep, 17:00Bundesliga
SCR Altach vs Grazer AK
Bet: Grazer AK +0.75 (AH) @ 4.00
Bet365
4.00 Real
Fair
2.39 Model
Edge
+67.7% Model
Bet365 4.00 vs Pinnacle fair 2.39 on Grazer AK +0.75 (AH): EV +67.7%. The gap clears the Value bar and Pinnacle's margin is tight enough to trust the reference. Prices imply 1.51 goals for SCR Altach and 1.13 for Grazer AK.
Sat 12 Sep, 19:30Bundesliga
Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna
Bet: Wolfsberger AC -0.25 (AH) @ 4.50
Bet365
4.50 Real
Fair
3.73 Model
Edge
+20.7% Model
Bet365 4.50 vs Pinnacle fair 3.73 on Wolfsberger AC -0.25 (AH): EV +20.7%. The gap clears the Value bar and Pinnacle's margin is tight enough to trust the reference. Prices imply 1.13 goals for Wolfsberger AC and 2.26 for Rapid Vienna.
Sat 12 Sep, 17:30Primera División
Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs FC Cajamarca
Bet: FC Cajamarca +0.25 (AH) @ 3.45
Bet365
3.45 Real
Fair
2.80 Model
Edge
+23.4% Model
Bet365 3.45 vs Pinnacle fair 2.80 on FC Cajamarca +0.25 (AH): EV +23.4%. The gap clears the Value bar and Pinnacle's margin is tight enough to trust the reference. Prices imply 1.79 goals for Club Deportivo Los Chankas and 1.19 for FC Cajamarca.
Sat 12 Sep, 20:00Primera División
Comerciantes Unidos vs Sport Huancayo
Bet: Sport Huancayo +0.75 (AH) @ 3.70
Bet365
3.70 Real
Fair
2.17 Model
Edge
+70.1% Model
Bet365 3.70 vs Pinnacle fair 2.17 on Sport Huancayo +0.75 (AH): EV +70.1%. The gap clears the Value bar and Pinnacle's margin is tight enough to trust the reference. Prices imply 1.48 goals for Comerciantes Unidos and 1.21 for Sport Huancayo.
Sat 12 Sep, 22:15Primera División
UCV Moquegua vs Sporting Cristal
Bet: UCV Moquegua -0.25 (AH) @ 4.10
Bet365
4.10 Real
Fair
2.89 Model
Edge
+41.9% Model
Bet365 4.10 vs Pinnacle fair 2.89 on UCV Moquegua -0.25 (AH): EV +41.9%. The gap clears the Value bar and Pinnacle's margin is tight enough to trust the reference. Prices imply 1.07 goals for UCV Moquegua and 1.69 for Sporting Cristal.

Featured match, Premier League, Sat 12 Sep, 16:00

Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest

Aston Villafair 2.31−4.7%

Drawfair 3.58−4.9%

Nottingham Forestfair 3.48−5.2%

Bet365 Real fair and EV vs Pinnacle Model

1.46 – 1.15 implied goals Model

Bet: Nottingham Forest +0.75 (AH) @ 3.90

Published pick

Bet365 3.90 vs Pinnacle fair 2.31 on Nottingham Forest +0.75 (AH): EV +68.7%. The gap clears the Value bar and Pinnacle's margin is tight enough to trust the reference. Prices imply 1.46 goals for Aston Villa and 1.15 for Nottingham Forest. Aston Villa are without L. Goretzka, Joao Gomes, B. Madjo, A. Onana. Nottingham Forest are without N. Savona. The exact-score market's shortest price is 1-1 at 7.00. Referee: not in feed.

Risk A one-goal swing inside the handicap.

Every market for this match

Head to head Real

2026-05-07	Aston Villa 4-0 Nottingham Forest	UEFA Europa League
2026-04-30	Nottingham Forest 1-0 Aston Villa	UEFA Europa League
2026-04-12	Nottingham Forest 1-1 Aston Villa	Premier League
2026-01-03	Aston Villa 3-1 Nottingham Forest	Premier League
2025-04-05	Aston Villa 2-1 Nottingham Forest	Premier League

1X2

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Aston Villa to win	2.26	2.31	−4.7%
Draw	3.46	3.58	−4.9%
Nottingham Forest to win	3.37	3.48	−5.2%

Double chance

Bet365 Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Fair	EV
Aston Villa or draw	1.40	−5.2%
Aston Villa or Nottingham Forest	1.39	−4.2%
Nottingham Forest or draw	1.76	−11.0%

Asian handicap

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Nottingham Forest 0 (AH)	2.44	2.52	−6.7%
Aston Villa 0 (AH)	1.63	1.66	−4.7%
Nottingham Forest +0.25 (AH)	2.90	2.38	+15.4%
Nottingham Forest -0.25 (AH)	1.97	2.48	−22.6%
Aston Villa +0.25 (AH)	1.47	1.68	−15.2%
Aston Villa -0.25 (AH)	1.95	1.72	+11.4%
Nottingham Forest +0.5 (AH)	3.34	2.31	+34.1%
Nottingham Forest -0.5 (AH)	1.72	2.46	−32.9%
Aston Villa +0.5 (AH)	1.37	1.69	−19.9%
Aston Villa -0.5 (AH)	2.26	1.76	+24.8%
Nottingham Forest +0.75 (AH)	4.30	2.31	+68.7%
Nottingham Forest -0.75 (AH)	1.53	2.56	−42.3%
Aston Villa +0.75 (AH)	1.25	1.64	−24.3%
Aston Villa -0.75 (AH)	2.68	1.76	+47.5%
Nottingham Forest +1 (AH)	—	2.28 soft	—
Nottingham Forest -1 (AH)	1.34	2.70 soft	—
Aston Villa +1 (AH)	—	1.59 soft	—
Aston Villa -1 (AH)	3.53	1.78 soft	—
Nottingham Forest +1.25 (AH)	—	2.26 soft	—
Nottingham Forest -1.25 (AH)	1.28	2.60 soft	—
Aston Villa +1.25 (AH)	—	1.62 soft	—
Aston Villa -1.25 (AH)	4.00	1.80 soft	—
Nottingham Forest +1.5 (AH)	—	2.21 soft	—
Nottingham Forest -1.5 (AH)	1.27	2.62 soft	—
Aston Villa +1.5 (AH)	—	1.62 soft	—
Aston Villa -1.5 (AH)	3.83	1.82 soft	—
Nottingham Forest -1.75 (AH)	—	—	—
Aston Villa -1.75 (AH)	—	—	—
Nottingham Forest -2 (AH)	—	—	—
Aston Villa -2 (AH)	—	—	—
Nottingham Forest -2.25 (AH)	—	—	—
Aston Villa -2.25 (AH)	—	—	—
Nottingham Forest -2.5 (AH)	—	—	—
Aston Villa -2.5 (AH)	—	—	—

Goals over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 0.5 goals	—	1.06 soft	—
Under 0.5 goals	—	17.63 soft	—
Over 1.5 goals	1.30	1.32	−3.4%
Under 1.5 goals	3.71	4.08	−8.1%
Over 2.5 goals	2.00	2.05	−6.8%
Under 2.5 goals	1.91	1.95	−2.2%
Over 3.5 goals	3.41	3.67	−12.8%
Under 3.5 goals	1.35	1.38	−1.1%
Over 4.5 goals	—	8.08 soft	—
Under 4.5 goals	—	1.14 soft	—
Over 5.5 goals	—	21.74 soft	—
Under 5.5 goals	—	1.05 soft	—
Over 6.5 goals	—	76.09 soft	—
Under 6.5 goals	—	1.01 soft	—
Over 7.5 goals	—	—	—

Both teams to score

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
Both teams to score: Yes		1.81 soft
Both teams to score: No		2.23 soft

1st half winner

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
1st half: Aston Villa to win	2.88	2.98	−3.4%
1st half: draw	2.29	2.35	−6.5%
1st half: Nottingham Forest to win	3.99	4.17	−13.8%

1st half over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
1st half: Over 0.5 goals	1.39	1.43	−4.6%
1st half: Under 0.5 goals	3.08	3.35	−10.5%
1st half: Over 1.5 goals	2.91	3.14	−12.4%
1st half: Under 1.5 goals	1.43	1.47	−4.6%
1st half: Over 2.5 goals	—	9.55 soft	—
1st half: Under 2.5 goals	—	1.12 soft	—
1st half: Over 3.5 goals	—	72.04 soft	—
1st half: Under 3.5 goals	—	1.01 soft	—

2nd half winner

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
2nd half: Aston Villa to win		2.80 soft
2nd half: draw		2.68 soft
2nd half: Nottingham Forest to win		3.70 soft

2nd half over/under

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
2nd half: Over 0.5 goals		1.26 soft
2nd half: Under 0.5 goals		4.90 soft
2nd half: Over 1.5 goals		2.29 soft
2nd half: Under 1.5 goals		1.77 soft
2nd half: Over 2.5 goals		5.72 soft
2nd half: Under 2.5 goals		1.21 soft
2nd half: Over 3.5 goals		17.63 soft
2nd half: Under 3.5 goals		1.06 soft

Exact score

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Exact score 1:1	6.00	8.53	−18.0%
Exact score 1:0	8.00	12.04	−25.2%
Exact score 2:1	8.50	12.95	−22.8%
Exact score 0:0	10.00	15.72	−30.0%
Exact score 2:0	9.50	14.79	−18.9%
Exact score 0:1	9.00	13.86	−13.4%
Exact score 1:2	9.50	14.79	−12.1%
Exact score 2:2	12.00	19.56	−23.3%
Exact score 3:1	14.00	23.52	−19.2%
Exact score 0:2	14.00	23.52	−19.2%

28 more not shown

Corners over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 9.5 corners	1.76	1.84	−5.8%
Under 9.5 corners	2.08	2.20	−8.9%
Over 10 corners	1.98	2.06	−5.5%
Under 10 corners	1.87	1.94	−4.7%

Cards over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Bet365	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 3.5 cards		1.76	1.83	−1.7%
Under 3.5 cards		2.09	2.20	−13.3%

Anytime scorer

Bet365 Real
Selection	Bet365
Tammy Abraham anytime scorer
Nicolas Jackson anytime scorer
Brian Madjo anytime scorer
Chris Wood anytime scorer
Liam Delap anytime scorer
Arnaud Kalimuendo anytime scorer
Morgan Gibbs-White anytime scorer
Igor Jesus anytime scorer
Emiliano Buendia anytime scorer
Ibrahim Mbaye anytime scorer
Alysson Edward anytime scorer
Alejandro Garnacho anytime scorer

32 more not shown

Total fouls, Goals by 15-minute window

Empty not priced by this bookmaker

The board

By league, kickoff order, Vienna time. Every match carries one tracked pick. Prices are Bet365 Real; fair prices and EV against de-vigged Pinnacle are Model.

Serie A3 matches

15:00

Genoa v Frosinone

Serie A, Regular Season - 4

Published pick

Genoafair 2.34−6.0%

Drawfair 3.45−4.3%

Frosinonefair 3.53−6.6%

1.55 – 1.24 implied goals Model

Bet365 2.60 vs Pinnacle fair 1.76 on Genoa -0.75 (AH): EV +47.3%. The gap clears the Value bar and Pinnacle's margin is tight enough to trust the reference. Prices imply 1.55 goals for Genoa and 1.24 for Frosinone.

Risk A one-goal swing inside the handicap.

Bet: Genoa -0.75 (AH) @ 2.60

All markets, availability and referee

Availability Real

Genoa — out: E. Havel (Ankle Injury), L. Venturino (Knee Injury)

Frosinone — out: none listed

Referee: A. Rapuano Real

Prices as of Bet365 11:24, Pinnacle 11:24 (Vienna). Bet365 1X2 margin 6.1%, Pinnacle 2.9% Model

Double chance

Bet365 Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Fair	EV
Genoa or draw	1.40	−4.6%
Genoa or Frosinone	1.41	−5.6%
Frosinone or draw	1.75	−7.2%

Asian handicap

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Frosinone 0 (AH)	2.44	2.52	−6.7%
Genoa 0 (AH)	1.63	1.66	−4.7%
Frosinone +0.25 (AH)	2.92	2.37	+15.9%
Frosinone -0.25 (AH)	1.95	2.48	−22.7%
Genoa +0.25 (AH)	1.46	1.67	−15.2%
Genoa -0.25 (AH)	1.97	1.73	+11.1%
Frosinone +0.5 (AH)	3.39	2.31	+43.0%
Frosinone -0.5 (AH)	1.70	2.46	−32.9%
Genoa +0.5 (AH)	1.36	1.69	−21.6%
Genoa -0.5 (AH)	2.29	1.76	+24.7%
Frosinone -0.75 (AH)	1.52	2.55	−41.9%
Genoa -0.75 (AH)	2.72	1.76	+47.3%
Frosinone +1 (AH)	—	2.28 soft	—
Frosinone -1 (AH)	1.33	2.70 soft	—
Genoa +1 (AH)	—	1.59 soft	—
Genoa -1 (AH)	3.55	1.78 soft	—
Frosinone +1.25 (AH)	—	2.27 soft	—
Frosinone -1.25 (AH)	1.28	2.64 soft	—
Genoa +1.25 (AH)	—	1.61 soft	—
Genoa -1.25 (AH)	4.01	1.78 soft	—
Frosinone +1.5 (AH)	—	2.23 soft	—
Frosinone -1.5 (AH)	1.29	2.67 soft	—
Genoa +1.5 (AH)	—	1.60 soft	—
Genoa -1.5 (AH)	3.85	1.81 soft	—
Frosinone -1.75 (AH)	—	—	—
Genoa -1.75 (AH)	—	—	—
Frosinone -2 (AH)	—	—	—
Genoa -2 (AH)	—	—	—
Frosinone -2.25 (AH)	—	—	—
Genoa -2.25 (AH)	—	—	—
Frosinone -2.5 (AH)	—	—	—
Genoa -2.5 (AH)	—	—	—

Goals over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 0.5 goals	—	1.07 soft	—
Under 0.5 goals	—	15.07 soft	—
Over 1.5 goals	1.25	1.27	+0.7%
Under 1.5 goals	4.19	4.68	−19.9%
Over 2.5 goals	1.84	1.88	+1.6%
Under 2.5 goals	2.08	2.13	−10.6%
Over 3.5 goals	3.01	3.22	+5.6%
Under 3.5 goals	1.42	1.45	−8.3%
Over 4.5 goals	—	8.08 soft	—
Under 4.5 goals	—	1.14 soft	—
Over 5.5 goals	—	21.74 soft	—
Under 5.5 goals	—	1.05 soft	—
Over 6.5 goals	—	76.09 soft	—
Under 6.5 goals	—	1.01 soft	—
Over 7.5 goals	—	—	—

Both teams to score

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
Both teams to score: Yes		1.81 soft
Both teams to score: No		2.23 soft

1st half winner

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
1st half: Genoa to win	2.86	2.96	−2.6%
1st half: draw	2.33	2.39	−8.1%
1st half: Frosinone to win	3.92	4.09	−8.4%

1st half over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
1st half: Over 0.5 goals	1.36	1.40	−2.5%
1st half: Under 0.5 goals	3.20	3.53	−15.0%
1st half: Over 1.5 goals	2.78	3.00	−8.2%
1st half: Under 1.5 goals	1.46	1.50	−6.7%
1st half: Over 2.5 goals	—	9.55 soft	—
1st half: Under 2.5 goals	—	1.12 soft	—
1st half: Over 3.5 goals	—	72.04 soft	—
1st half: Under 3.5 goals	—	1.01 soft	—

2nd half winner

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
2nd half: Genoa to win		2.62 soft
2nd half: draw		2.74 soft
2nd half: Frosinone to win		3.96 soft

2nd half over/under

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
2nd half: Over 0.5 goals		1.26 soft
2nd half: Under 0.5 goals		4.90 soft
2nd half: Over 1.5 goals		2.18 soft
2nd half: Under 1.5 goals		1.85 soft
2nd half: Over 2.5 goals		5.32 soft
2nd half: Under 2.5 goals		1.23 soft
2nd half: Over 3.5 goals		17.63 soft
2nd half: Under 3.5 goals		1.06 soft

Exact score

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
Exact score 1:1		7.44 soft
Exact score 1:0		10.98 soft
Exact score 2:1		11.71 soft
Exact score 0:0		13.18 soft
Exact score 2:0		14.66 soft
Exact score 0:1		14.66 soft
Exact score 1:2		16.16 soft
Exact score 2:2		17.68 soft
Exact score 3:1		23.87 soft
Exact score 0:2		23.87 soft

30 more not shown

Corners over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Bet365	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 9.5 corners		1.95	2.03	−11.2%
Under 9.5 corners		1.90	1.97	−3.2%

Cards over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Bet365	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 4.5 cards		1.93	2.02	−14.5%
Under 4.5 cards		1.89	1.98	+1.1%

Anytime scorer

Bet365 Real
Selection	Bet365
Milutin Osmajic anytime scorer
Joi Nuredini anytime scorer
Adam Zulevic anytime scorer
Vitinha anytime scorer
Tomas Bobcek anytime scorer
Elias Havel anytime scorer
Antonio Raimondo anytime scorer
Lorenzo Colombo anytime scorer
Daniel Birligea anytime scorer
Junior Messias anytime scorer
Alejandro Cichero anytime scorer
Tommaso Baldanzi anytime scorer

44 more not shown

Total fouls, Goals by 15-minute window

Empty not priced by this bookmaker

18:00

Lazio v AC Milan

Serie A, Regular Season - 4

Published pick

Laziofair 4.07−9.1%

Drawfair 3.33−2.4%

AC Milanfair 2.20−4.7%

0.97 – 1.40 implied goals Model

Bet365 7.00 vs Pinnacle fair 2.28 on Lazio -1 (AH): EV +207.6%. The gap clears the Value bar and Pinnacle's margin is tight enough to trust the reference. Prices imply 0.97 goals for Lazio and 1.40 for AC Milan.

Risk A one-goal swing inside the handicap.

Bet: Lazio -1 (AH) @ 7.00

All markets, availability and referee

Availability Real

Lazio — out: D. Cataldi (Groin Injury), A. Furlanetto (Knee Injury), Patric (Ankle Injury), L. Pellegrini (Injury), N. Rovella (Injury); doubtful: F. Dele-Bashiru (Muscle Injury), A. Marusic (Muscle Injury)

AC Milan — out: none listed

Referee: M. Marcenaro Real

Prices as of Bet365 11:24, Pinnacle 11:24 (Vienna). Bet365 1X2 margin 5.4%, Pinnacle 2.7% Model

Double chance

Bet365 Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Fair	EV
Lazio or draw	1.83	−8.8%
Lazio or AC Milan	1.43	−4.9%
AC Milan or draw	1.33	−3.5%

Asian handicap

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
AC Milan 0 (AH)	1.51	1.53	−3.5%
Lazio 0 (AH)	2.76	2.87	−9.4%
AC Milan +0.25 (AH)	1.84	1.62	+10.9%
AC Milan -0.25 (AH)	1.37	1.55	−13.0%
Lazio +0.25 (AH)	2.10	2.81	−27.2%
Lazio -0.25 (AH)	3.34	2.60	+19.0%
AC Milan +0.5 (AH)	2.15	1.67	+24.4%
AC Milan -0.5 (AH)	1.29	1.57	−18.9%
Lazio +0.5 (AH)	1.78	2.76	−37.8%
Lazio -0.5 (AH)	3.89	2.49	+42.6%
AC Milan +0.75 (AH)	2.56	1.68	+44.4%
AC Milan -0.75 (AH)	1.19	1.52	−22.1%
Lazio +0.75 (AH)	1.57	2.94	−48.3%
Lazio -0.75 (AH)	5.22	2.48	+87.6%
AC Milan +1 (AH)	3.37	1.78	+85.0%
AC Milan -1 (AH)	1.15	1.58	−30.3%
Lazio +1 (AH)	1.36	2.73	−51.6%
Lazio -1 (AH)	5.62	2.28	+207.6%
AC Milan +1.25 (AH)	3.87	1.70 soft	—
AC Milan -1.25 (AH)	—	1.45 soft	—
Lazio +1.25 (AH)	1.29	3.20 soft	—
Lazio -1.25 (AH)	—	2.43 soft	—
AC Milan +1.5 (AH)	—	1.80 soft	—
AC Milan -1.5 (AH)	—	1.58 soft	—
Lazio +1.5 (AH)	—	2.71 soft	—
Lazio -1.5 (AH)	—	2.25 soft	—
AC Milan +1.75 (AH)	—	—	—
Lazio +1.75 (AH)	—	—	—

Goals over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 0.5 goals	—	1.12 soft	—
Under 0.5 goals	—	9.55 soft	—
Over 1.5 goals	1.39	1.43	+1.1%
Under 1.5 goals	3.08	3.35	−18.0%
Over 2.5 goals	2.24	2.34	+1.8%
Under 2.5 goals	1.70	1.75	−10.2%
Over 3.5 goals	—	5.41 soft	—
Under 3.5 goals	—	1.23 soft	—
Over 4.5 goals	—	15.07 soft	—
Under 4.5 goals	—	1.07 soft	—
Over 5.5 goals	—	72.04 soft	—
Under 5.5 goals	—	1.01 soft	—
Over 6.5 goals	—	—	—

Both teams to score

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
Both teams to score: Yes		2.16 soft
Both teams to score: No		1.86 soft

1st half winner

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
1st half: Lazio to win	4.40	4.62	−6.4%
1st half: draw	2.16	2.22	−7.5%
1st half: AC Milan to win	2.90	3.01	−8.5%

1st half over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
1st half: Over 0.5 goals	1.47	1.51	−4.7%
1st half: Under 0.5 goals	2.75	2.96	−11.4%
1st half: Over 1.5 goals	3.33	3.68	−11.7%
1st half: Under 1.5 goals	1.34	1.37	−3.1%
1st half: Over 2.5 goals	—	15.07 soft	—
1st half: Under 2.5 goals	—	1.07 soft	—
1st half: Over 3.5 goals	—	76.09 soft	—
1st half: Under 3.5 goals	—	1.01 soft	—

2nd half winner

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
2nd half: Lazio to win		3.92 soft
2nd half: draw		2.47 soft
2nd half: AC Milan to win		2.93 soft

2nd half over/under

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
2nd half: Over 0.5 goals		1.34 soft
2nd half: Under 0.5 goals		3.93 soft
2nd half: Over 1.5 goals		2.64 soft
2nd half: Under 1.5 goals		1.61 soft
2nd half: Over 2.5 goals		8.08 soft
2nd half: Under 2.5 goals		1.14 soft
2nd half: Over 3.5 goals		39.44 soft
2nd half: Under 3.5 goals		1.03 soft

Exact score

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
Exact score 1:1		7.41 soft
Exact score 0:1		8.80 soft
Exact score 0:0		9.51 soft
Exact score 1:0		11.66 soft
Exact score 0:2		12.39 soft
Exact score 1:2		12.39 soft
Exact score 2:1		17.59 soft
Exact score 2:0		20.64 soft
Exact score 2:2		23.74 soft
Exact score 0:3		26.88 soft

26 more not shown

Corners over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Bet365	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 8.5 corners		1.98	2.06	−6.9%
Under 8.5 corners		1.87	1.94	−3.1%

Cards over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Bet365	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 4.5 cards		1.97	2.07	−11.6%
Under 4.5 cards		1.85	1.94	−5.4%

Anytime scorer

Bet365 Real
Selection	Bet365
Christian Pulisic anytime scorer
Goncalo Ramos anytime scorer
Francesco Camarda anytime scorer
Andrea Pinamonti anytime scorer
Alphadjo Cisse anytime scorer
Gustav Isaksen anytime scorer
Ruben Loftus-Cheek anytime scorer
Matteo Cancellieri anytime scorer
Federico Serra anytime scorer
Albert Gudmundsson anytime scorer
Samuel Chukwueze anytime scorer
Mattia Zaccagni anytime scorer

41 more not shown

Total fouls, Goals by 15-minute window

Empty not priced by this bookmaker

20:45

Atalanta v Cagliari

Serie A, Regular Season - 4

Published pick

Atalantafair 1.75−3.0%

Drawfair 3.94−4.9%

Cagliarifair 5.70−12.2%

1.77 – 0.90 implied goals Model

Bet365 4.25 vs Pinnacle fair 3.54 on Cagliari +0.25 (AH): EV +20.1%. The gap clears the Value bar and Pinnacle's margin is tight enough to trust the reference. Prices imply 1.77 goals for Atalanta and 0.90 for Cagliari.

Risk A one-goal swing inside the handicap.

Bet: Cagliari +0.25 (AH) @ 4.25

All markets, availability and referee

Availability Real

Atalanta — out: G. Gaetano (Red Card), I. Hien (Muscle Injury), K. Sulemana (Knee Injury)

Cagliari — out: M. Felici (Knee Injury), R. Idrissi (Knee Injury), M. Nzola (Lacking Match Fitness), Y. Trepy (Injury)

Referee: A. Arena Real

Prices as of Bet365 11:24, Pinnacle 11:24 (Vienna). Bet365 1X2 margin 5.5%, Pinnacle 3.2% Model

Double chance

Bet365 Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Fair	EV
Atalanta or draw	1.21	−3.5%
Atalanta or Cagliari	1.34	−6.7%
Cagliari or draw	2.33	−12.0%

Asian handicap

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Cagliari 0 (AH)	4.02	4.35	−15.0%
Atalanta 0 (AH)	1.28	1.30	−2.9%
Cagliari +0.25 (AH)	4.68	3.54	+20.1%
Cagliari -0.25 (AH)	2.78	4.14	−37.2%
Atalanta +0.25 (AH)	1.22	1.32	−8.2%
Atalanta -0.25 (AH)	1.50	1.39	+6.2%
Cagliari +0.5 (AH)	—	3.16 soft	—
Cagliari -0.5 (AH)	2.25	3.91 soft	—
Atalanta +0.5 (AH)	—	1.34 soft	—
Atalanta -0.5 (AH)	1.72	1.46 soft	—
Cagliari +0.75 (AH)	—	3.12 soft	—
Cagliari -0.75 (AH)	1.99	4.67 soft	—
Atalanta +0.75 (AH)	—	1.27 soft	—
Atalanta -0.75 (AH)	1.93	1.47 soft	—
Cagliari -1 (AH)	1.69	—	—
Atalanta -1 (AH)	2.29	—	—
Cagliari -1.25 (AH)	1.53	—	—
Atalanta -1.25 (AH)	2.66	—	—
Cagliari -1.5 (AH)	1.43	—	—
Atalanta -1.5 (AH)	3.02	—	—
Cagliari -1.75 (AH)	1.31	—	—
Atalanta -1.75 (AH)	3.77	—	—
Cagliari -2 (AH)	1.21	—	—
Atalanta -2 (AH)	4.79	—	—
Cagliari -2.25 (AH)	—	—	—
Atalanta -2.25 (AH)	—	—	—
Cagliari -2.5 (AH)	—	—	—
Atalanta -2.5 (AH)	—	—	—
Cagliari -2.75 (AH)	—	—	—
Atalanta -2.75 (AH)	—	—	—

Goals over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 0.5 goals	—	1.07 soft	—
Under 0.5 goals	—	15.07 soft	—
Over 1.5 goals	1.30	1.32	−3.2%
Under 1.5 goals	3.76	4.10	−8.6%
Over 2.5 goals	1.94	1.99	−4.0%
Under 2.5 goals	1.96	2.01	−5.0%
Over 3.5 goals	3.29	3.57	−4.8%
Under 3.5 goals	1.36	1.39	−4.2%
Over 4.5 goals	—	8.08 soft	—
Under 4.5 goals	—	1.14 soft	—
Over 5.5 goals	—	21.74 soft	—
Under 5.5 goals	—	1.05 soft	—
Over 6.5 goals	—	76.09 soft	—
Under 6.5 goals	—	1.01 soft	—
Over 7.5 goals	—	—	—

Both teams to score

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
Both teams to score: Yes		2.00 soft
Both teams to score: No		2.00 soft

1st half winner

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
1st half: Atalanta to win	2.33	2.40	−6.1%
1st half: draw	2.38	2.45	−8.1%
1st half: Cagliari to win	5.43	5.74	−12.9%

1st half over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
1st half: Over 0.5 goals	1.38	1.42	−3.9%
1st half: Under 0.5 goals	3.12	3.41	−12.0%
1st half: Over 1.5 goals	2.87	3.12	−11.9%
1st half: Under 1.5 goals	1.43	1.47	−4.9%
1st half: Over 2.5 goals	—	9.55 soft	—
1st half: Under 2.5 goals	—	1.12 soft	—
1st half: Over 3.5 goals	—	72.04 soft	—
1st half: Under 3.5 goals	—	1.01 soft	—

2nd half winner

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
2nd half: Atalanta to win		2.11 soft
2nd half: draw		2.78 soft
2nd half: Cagliari to win		6.03 soft

2nd half over/under

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
2nd half: Over 0.5 goals		1.26 soft
2nd half: Under 0.5 goals		4.90 soft
2nd half: Over 1.5 goals		2.29 soft
2nd half: Under 1.5 goals		1.77 soft
2nd half: Over 2.5 goals		5.72 soft
2nd half: Under 2.5 goals		1.21 soft
2nd half: Over 3.5 goals		21.74 soft
2nd half: Under 3.5 goals		1.05 soft

Exact score

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Exact score 1:0	6.50	9.31	−24.8%
Exact score 1:1	6.75	9.74	−28.1%
Exact score 2:0	7.00	10.17	−21.4%
Exact score 2:1	8.00	11.93	−28.7%
Exact score 0:0	10.50	16.50	−39.4%
Exact score 3:0	12.00	19.34	−32.8%
Exact score 3:1	11.50	18.39	−29.3%
Exact score 0:1	12.00	19.34	−32.8%
Exact score 2:2	14.00	23.24	−35.5%
Exact score 1:2	13.00	21.28	−20.1%

29 more not shown

Corners over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Bet365	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 9.5 corners		1.98	2.08	−8.0%
Under 9.5 corners		1.85	1.93	−6.7%

Cards over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 2.5 cards	1.62	1.69	+6.7%
Under 2.5 cards	2.29	2.46	−22.2%
Over 3.5 cards	2.54	2.76	−20.4%
Under 3.5 cards	1.51	1.57	+3.4%
Over 4.5 cards	3.32	3.89	−43.5%
Under 4.5 cards	1.30	1.35	+20.4%

Anytime scorer

Bet365 Real
Selection	Bet365
Nikola Krstovic anytime scorer
Gianluca Scamacca anytime scorer
Giacomo Raspadori anytime scorer
Jonathan Rowe anytime scorer
Eljif Elmas anytime scorer
Charles De Ketelaere anytime scorer
Nicola Zalewski anytime scorer
Mario Pasalic anytime scorer
Kamaldeen Sulemana anytime scorer
M'Bala Nzola anytime scorer
Kingstone Mutandwa anytime scorer
Paul Mendy anytime scorer

39 more not shown

Total fouls, Goals by 15-minute window

Empty not priced by this bookmaker

Bundesliga8 matches

15:30

Borussia Dortmund v SC Paderborn 07

Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3

No bet, lean tracked

Borussia Dortmundfair 1.25−2.3%

Drawfair 8.12−13.8%

SC Paderborn 07fair 13.10−23.6%

2.96 – 0.84 implied goals Model

Bet365 2.10 vs Pinnacle fair 1.98 on Under 3.5 cards: EV +6.2%. Flat to slightly positive but under the Value bar: tracked, not sold. Prices imply 2.96 goals for Borussia Dortmund and 0.84 for SC Paderborn 07.

Risk Single-match variance.

Bet: No bet — tracked: Under 3.5 cards @ 2.10

All markets, availability and referee

Availability Real

Borussia Dortmund — out: E. Can (Knee Injury), S. Inacio (Red Card), M. Kaba (Injury), K. Karetsas (Health problems), G. Konstantelias (Knee Injury), J. Lerma (Muscle Injury), F. Mane (Muscle Injury)

SC Paderborn 07 — out: N. Awortwie-Grant (Knee Injury), L. Eickel (Back Injury), T. Gayret (Knee Injury), S. Klaas (Muscle Injury), S. Michel (Muscle Injury)

Referee: not in feed.

Prices as of Bet365 08:39, Pinnacle 08:39 (Vienna). Bet365 1X2 margin 6.2%, Pinnacle 4.7% Model

Double chance

Bet365 Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Fair	EV
Borussia Dortmund or draw	1.08	−2.1%
Borussia Dortmund or SC Paderborn 07	1.14	−3.5%
SC Paderborn 07 or draw	5.01	−20.2%

Asian handicap

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real
Selection	Bet365	Pinnacle
SC Paderborn 07 -0.25 (AH)		—
Borussia Dortmund -0.25 (AH)		—
SC Paderborn 07 -0.5 (AH)		—
Borussia Dortmund -0.5 (AH)		—
SC Paderborn 07 -0.75 (AH)		4.07
Borussia Dortmund -0.75 (AH)		1.26
SC Paderborn 07 -1 (AH)		3.58
Borussia Dortmund -1 (AH)		1.31
SC Paderborn 07 -1.25 (AH)		2.75
Borussia Dortmund -1.25 (AH)		1.47
SC Paderborn 07 -1.5 (AH)		2.33
Borussia Dortmund -1.5 (AH)		1.64
SC Paderborn 07 -1.75 (AH)		2.08
Borussia Dortmund -1.75 (AH)		1.79
SC Paderborn 07 -2 (AH)		1.85
Borussia Dortmund -2 (AH)		2.05
SC Paderborn 07 -2.25 (AH)		1.65
Borussia Dortmund -2.25 (AH)		2.30
SC Paderborn 07 -2.5 (AH)		1.54
Borussia Dortmund -2.5 (AH)		2.58
SC Paderborn 07 -2.75 (AH)		1.40
Borussia Dortmund -2.75 (AH)		3.03
SC Paderborn 07 -3 (AH)		1.27
Borussia Dortmund -3 (AH)		3.88
SC Paderborn 07 -3.25 (AH)		—
Borussia Dortmund -3.25 (AH)		—
SC Paderborn 07 -3.5 (AH)		—
Borussia Dortmund -3.5 (AH)		—
SC Paderborn 07 -3.75 (AH)		—
Borussia Dortmund -3.75 (AH)		—
SC Paderborn 07 -4 (AH)		—
Borussia Dortmund -4 (AH)		—

Goals over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 0.5 goals	—	1.01 soft	—
Under 0.5 goals	—	73.77 soft	—
Over 1.5 goals	—	1.12 soft	—
Under 1.5 goals	—	9.55 soft	—
Over 2.5 goals	1.33	1.37	−2.8%
Under 2.5 goals	3.30	3.72	−8.5%
Over 3.5 goals	1.89	1.96	−2.4%
Under 3.5 goals	1.97	2.04	−6.6%
Over 4.5 goals	3.00	3.31	−9.5%
Under 4.5 goals	1.39	1.43	−2.2%
Over 5.5 goals	—	6.16 soft	—
Under 5.5 goals	—	1.19 soft	—
Over 6.5 goals	—	15.07 soft	—
Under 6.5 goals	—	1.07 soft	—
Over 7.5 goals	—	40.64 soft	—
Under 7.5 goals	—	1.02 soft	—
Over 8.5 goals	—	78.14 soft	—
Under 8.5 goals	—	1.01 soft	—

Both teams to score

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
Both teams to score: Yes		1.86 soft
Both teams to score: No		2.16 soft

1st half winner

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
1st half: Borussia Dortmund to win	1.57	1.61	−2.5%
1st half: draw	3.30	3.53	−12.2%
1st half: SC Paderborn 07 to win	9.18	10.41	−18.4%

1st half over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
1st half: Over 0.5 goals	—	1.21 soft	—
1st half: Under 0.5 goals	—	5.72 soft	—
1st half: Over 1.5 goals	1.96	2.06	−11.1%
1st half: Under 1.5 goals	1.86	1.95	−5.9%
1st half: Over 2.5 goals	—	4.47 soft	—
1st half: Under 2.5 goals	—	1.29 soft	—
1st half: Over 3.5 goals	—	15.07 soft	—
1st half: Under 3.5 goals	—	1.07 soft	—
1st half: Over 4.5 goals	—	73.77 soft	—
1st half: Under 4.5 goals	—	1.01 soft	—

2nd half winner

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
2nd half: Borussia Dortmund to win		1.52 soft
2nd half: draw		4.17 soft
2nd half: SC Paderborn 07 to win		9.95 soft

2nd half over/under

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
2nd half: Over 0.5 goals		1.13 soft
2nd half: Under 0.5 goals		8.77 soft
2nd half: Over 1.5 goals		1.61 soft
2nd half: Under 1.5 goals		2.64 soft
2nd half: Over 2.5 goals		2.96 soft
2nd half: Under 2.5 goals		1.51 soft
2nd half: Over 3.5 goals		7.13 soft
2nd half: Under 3.5 goals		1.16 soft
2nd half: Over 4.5 goals		21.74 soft
2nd half: Under 4.5 goals		1.05 soft

Exact score

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Exact score 2:0	6.50	9.77	−13.0%
Exact score 3:0	8.00	12.58	−32.4%
Exact score 2:1	9.00	14.52	−34.5%
Exact score 3:1	9.50	15.50	−35.5%
Exact score 1:0	8.50	13.54	−18.8%
Exact score 4:0	11.00	18.53	−35.2%
Exact score 4:1	13.00	22.71	−42.8%
Exact score 1:1	9.50	15.50	−16.2%
Exact score 5:0	12.00	20.60	−7.8%
Exact score 3:2	13.00	22.71	−7.5%

32 more not shown

Corners over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Bet365	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 9.5 corners		1.82	1.90	−1.0%
Under 9.5 corners		2.01	2.11	−9.1%

Cards over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Bet365	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 3.5 cards		1.93	2.02	−17.4%
Under 3.5 cards		1.89	1.98	+6.2%

Anytime scorer

Bet365 Real
Selection	Bet365
Serhou Guirassy anytime scorer
Mathis Albert anytime scorer
Samuele Inacio anytime scorer
Fabio Silva anytime scorer
Maximilian Beier anytime scorer
Ethan Nwaneri anytime scorer
Konstantinos Karetsas anytime scorer
Carney Chukwuemeka anytime scorer
Felix Nmecha anytime scorer
Ramy Bensebaini anytime scorer
Justin Lerma anytime scorer
Joey Veerman anytime scorer

34 more not shown

Total fouls, Goals by 15-minute window

Empty not priced by this bookmaker

15:30

1899 Hoffenheim v VfB Stuttgart

Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3

Published pick

1899 Hoffenheimfair 2.35−6.4%

Drawfair 4.22−2.9%

VfB Stuttgartfair 2.96−5.4%

1.99 – 1.77 implied goals Model

Bet365 3.45 vs Pinnacle fair 1.88 on 1899 Hoffenheim -1 (AH): EV +83.8%. The gap clears the Value bar and Pinnacle's margin is tight enough to trust the reference. Prices imply 1.99 goals for 1899 Hoffenheim and 1.77 for VfB Stuttgart.

Risk A one-goal swing inside the handicap.

Bet: 1899 Hoffenheim -1 (AH) @ 3.45

All markets, availability and referee

Availability Real

1899 Hoffenheim — out: A. Prass (Muscle Injury); doubtful: K. Machida (Lacking Match Fitness)

VfB Stuttgart — out: L. Assignon (Shoulder Injury), J. Diehl (Muscle Injury), N. Nartey (Thigh Injury), D. Seimen (Thigh Injury), T. Tomas (Muscle Injury), D. Zagadou (Muscle Injury); doubtful: L. Jaquez (Muscle Injury)

Referee: not in feed.

Prices as of Bet365 12:36, Pinnacle 12:36 (Vienna). Bet365 1X2 margin 5.6%, Pinnacle 2.8% Model

Double chance

Bet365 Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Fair	EV
1899 Hoffenheim or draw	1.51	−4.6%
1899 Hoffenheim or VfB Stuttgart	1.31	−6.9%
VfB Stuttgart or draw	1.74	−9.8%

Asian handicap

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
VfB Stuttgart 0 (AH)	2.19	2.26	−9.4%
1899 Hoffenheim 0 (AH)	1.75	1.79	+0.5%
VfB Stuttgart +0.25 (AH)	2.53	2.20	+2.2%
VfB Stuttgart -0.25 (AH)	1.89	2.26	−23.8%
1899 Hoffenheim +0.25 (AH)	1.58	1.79	−9.8%
1899 Hoffenheim -0.25 (AH)	2.04	1.83	+13.5%
VfB Stuttgart +0.5 (AH)	2.85	2.18	+14.9%
VfB Stuttgart -0.5 (AH)	1.69	2.24	−29.4%
1899 Hoffenheim +0.5 (AH)	1.47	1.81	−17.0%
1899 Hoffenheim -0.5 (AH)	2.29	1.85	+27.0%
VfB Stuttgart +0.75 (AH)	3.44	2.18	+37.9%
VfB Stuttgart -0.75 (AH)	1.54	2.29	−36.6%
1899 Hoffenheim +0.75 (AH)	1.35	1.78	−22.3%
1899 Hoffenheim -0.75 (AH)	2.66	1.85	+44.8%
VfB Stuttgart +1 (AH)	4.19	2.14	+77.5%
VfB Stuttgart -1 (AH)	1.38	2.26	−42.4%
1899 Hoffenheim +1 (AH)	1.26	1.79	−30.3%
1899 Hoffenheim -1 (AH)	3.27	1.88	+83.8%
VfB Stuttgart +1.25 (AH)	—	2.06 soft	—
VfB Stuttgart -1.25 (AH)	1.32	2.11 soft	—
1899 Hoffenheim +1.25 (AH)	—	1.90 soft	—
1899 Hoffenheim -1.25 (AH)	3.62	1.94 soft	—
VfB Stuttgart +1.5 (AH)	—	2.05 soft	—
VfB Stuttgart -1.5 (AH)	—	2.09 soft	—
1899 Hoffenheim +1.5 (AH)	—	1.92 soft	—
1899 Hoffenheim -1.5 (AH)	—	1.96 soft	—
VfB Stuttgart +1.75 (AH)	—	2.04 soft	—
VfB Stuttgart -1.75 (AH)	—	2.09 soft	—
1899 Hoffenheim +1.75 (AH)	—	1.92 soft	—
1899 Hoffenheim -1.75 (AH)	—	1.96 soft	—
VfB Stuttgart -2 (AH)	—	—	—
1899 Hoffenheim -2 (AH)	—	—	—

Goals over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 0.5 goals	—	1.01 soft	—
Under 0.5 goals	—	78.14 soft	—
Over 1.5 goals	—	1.09 soft	—
Under 1.5 goals	—	11.55 soft	—
Over 2.5 goals	1.34	1.37	−5.4%
Under 2.5 goals	3.31	3.67	−4.7%
Over 3.5 goals	1.78	1.83	−1.8%
Under 3.5 goals	2.12	2.20	−9.2%
Over 4.5 goals	2.67	2.85	−3.5%
Under 4.5 goals	1.50	1.54	−6.5%
Over 5.5 goals	—	5.41 soft	—
Under 5.5 goals	—	1.23 soft	—
Over 6.5 goals	—	11.55 soft	—
Under 6.5 goals	—	1.09 soft	—
Over 7.5 goals	—	28.00 soft	—
Under 7.5 goals	—	1.04 soft	—
Over 8.5 goals	—	78.14 soft	—
Under 8.5 goals	—	1.01 soft	—
Over 9.5 goals	—	—	—

Both teams to score

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
Both teams to score: Yes		1.34 soft
Both teams to score: No		3.93 soft

1st half winner

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
1st half: 1899 Hoffenheim to win	2.74	2.82	−7.9%
1st half: draw	2.86	2.95	−6.8%
1st half: VfB Stuttgart to win	3.15	3.26	−8.0%

1st half over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
1st half: Over 0.5 goals	—	1.21 soft	—
1st half: Under 0.5 goals	—	5.72 soft	—
1st half: Over 1.5 goals	1.89	1.96	−2.7%
1st half: Under 1.5 goals	1.96	2.04	−11.7%
1st half: Over 2.5 goals	—	4.90 soft	—
1st half: Under 2.5 goals	—	1.26 soft	—
1st half: Over 3.5 goals	—	15.07 soft	—
1st half: Under 3.5 goals	—	1.07 soft	—
1st half: Over 4.5 goals	—	73.77 soft	—
1st half: Under 4.5 goals	—	1.01 soft	—

2nd half winner

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
2nd half: 1899 Hoffenheim to win		2.80 soft
2nd half: draw		3.29 soft
2nd half: VfB Stuttgart to win		2.95 soft

2nd half over/under

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
2nd half: Over 0.5 goals		1.12 soft
2nd half: Under 0.5 goals		9.55 soft
2nd half: Over 1.5 goals		1.61 soft
2nd half: Under 1.5 goals		2.64 soft
2nd half: Over 2.5 goals		2.96 soft
2nd half: Under 2.5 goals		1.51 soft
2nd half: Over 3.5 goals		7.13 soft
2nd half: Under 3.5 goals		1.16 soft
2nd half: Over 4.5 goals		21.74 soft
2nd half: Under 4.5 goals		1.05 soft

Exact score

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Exact score 1:1	9.00	14.16	−32.9%
Exact score 2:2	9.50	15.12	−33.9%
Exact score 2:1	7.50	11.37	−3.2%
Exact score 1:2	11.00	18.04	−39.0%
Exact score 3:1	15.00	26.23	−42.8%
Exact score 3:2	10.50	17.06	−0.4%
Exact score 1:3	11.50	19.04	−10.7%
Exact score 1:0	18.50	33.78	−43.8%
Exact score 2:0	18.50	33.78	−43.8%
Exact score 2:3	17.00	30.51	−37.7%

31 more not shown

Corners over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Bet365	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 10.5 corners		1.93	2.02	−9.5%
Under 10.5 corners		1.89	1.98	−7.5%

Cards over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Bet365	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 3.5 cards		1.97	2.07	−11.6%
Under 3.5 cards		1.85	1.94	−5.4%

Anytime scorer

Bet365 Real
Selection	Bet365
Andrej Kramaric anytime scorer
Deniz Undav anytime scorer
Fisnik Asllani anytime scorer
Adam Hlozek anytime scorer
Dzenan Pejcinovic anytime scorer
Ermedin Demirovic anytime scorer
Tim Lemperle anytime scorer
Max Moerstedt anytime scorer
Tiago Tomas anytime scorer
Jeremy Arevalo anytime scorer
Bambase Conte anytime scorer
Patrick Wimmer anytime scorer

38 more not shown

Total fouls, Goals by 15-minute window

Empty not priced by this bookmaker

15:30

SC Freiburg v Borussia Mönchengladbach

Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3

No bet, prices out of sync

SC Freiburgfair 1.72−1.2%

Drawfair 4.52−11.4%

Borussia Mönchengladbachfair 5.07−6.3%

2.12 – 1.18 implied goals Model

Bet365 1.65 vs Pinnacle fair 1.51 on SC Freiburg -0.5 (AH): EV +9.0%. The two snapshots are too far apart to compare honestly. No bet. Prices imply 2.12 goals for SC Freiburg and 1.18 for Borussia Mönchengladbach.

Risk A one-goal swing inside the handicap.

Bet: No bet — tracked: SC Freiburg -0.5 (AH) @ 1.65

Prices out of sync

All markets, availability and referee

Availability Real

SC Freiburg — out: none listed

Borussia Mönchengladbach — out: J. Castrop (Shoulder Injury), D. Hashioka (Neck Injury), Y. Konoplya (Knee Injury), N. Kuhn (Muscle Injury), E. Leopold (Knee Injury), Z. Uno (Lacking Match Fitness)

Referee: not in feed.

Prices as of Bet365 08:39, Pinnacle 12:36 (Vienna). Bet365 1X2 margin 4.9%, Pinnacle 3.2% Model

Double chance

Bet365 Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Fair	EV
SC Freiburg or draw	1.25	−5.3%
SC Freiburg or Borussia Mönchengladbach	1.28	−5.0%
Borussia Mönchengladbach or draw	2.39	−10.0%

Asian handicap

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Borussia Mönchengladbach 0 (AH)	3.73	4.03	−11.8%
SC Freiburg 0 (AH)	1.31	1.33	−4.5%
Borussia Mönchengladbach +0.25 (AH)	4.25	3.43	+19.7%
Borussia Mönchengladbach -0.25 (AH)	2.77	3.82	−31.9%
SC Freiburg +0.25 (AH)	1.26	1.35	−9.2%
SC Freiburg -0.25 (AH)	1.50	1.41	+4.8%
Borussia Mönchengladbach +0.5 (AH)	3.93	2.95	+52.7%
Borussia Mönchengladbach -0.5 (AH)	2.30	3.44	−36.1%
SC Freiburg +0.5 (AH)	1.26	1.41	−15.6%
SC Freiburg -0.5 (AH)	1.69	1.51	+9.0%
Borussia Mönchengladbach +0.75 (AH)	—	3.07 soft	—
Borussia Mönchengladbach -0.75 (AH)	2.05	4.52 soft	—
SC Freiburg +0.75 (AH)	—	1.28 soft	—
SC Freiburg -0.75 (AH)	1.88	1.48 soft	—
Borussia Mönchengladbach +1 (AH)	—	2.94 soft	—
Borussia Mönchengladbach -1 (AH)	1.79	4.32 soft	—
SC Freiburg +1 (AH)	—	1.30 soft	—
SC Freiburg -1 (AH)	2.15	1.52 soft	—
Borussia Mönchengladbach -1.25 (AH)	1.61	—	—
SC Freiburg -1.25 (AH)	2.46	—	—
Borussia Mönchengladbach +1.5 (AH)	—	2.59 soft	—
Borussia Mönchengladbach -1.5 (AH)	1.50	3.58 soft	—
SC Freiburg +1.5 (AH)	—	1.39 soft	—
SC Freiburg -1.5 (AH)	2.75	1.63 soft	—
Borussia Mönchengladbach -1.75 (AH)	1.37	—	—
SC Freiburg -1.75 (AH)	3.33	—	—
Borussia Mönchengladbach -2 (AH)	—	—	—
SC Freiburg -2 (AH)	—	—	—
Borussia Mönchengladbach -2.25 (AH)	—	—	—
SC Freiburg -2.25 (AH)	—	—	—
Borussia Mönchengladbach -2.5 (AH)	—	—	—
SC Freiburg -2.5 (AH)	—	—	—
Borussia Mönchengladbach -2.75 (AH)	—	—	—
SC Freiburg -2.75 (AH)	—	—	—

Goals over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 0.5 goals	—	1.04 soft	—
Under 0.5 goals	—	28.00 soft	—
Over 1.5 goals	—	1.19 soft	—
Under 1.5 goals	—	6.16 soft	—
Over 2.5 goals	1.52	1.56	−1.9%
Under 2.5 goals	2.63	2.79	−10.3%
Over 3.5 goals	2.30	2.39	−3.7%
Under 3.5 goals	1.68	1.72	−5.8%
Over 4.5 goals	—	4.59 soft	—
Under 4.5 goals	—	1.28 soft	—
Over 5.5 goals	—	11.55 soft	—
Under 5.5 goals	—	1.09 soft	—
Over 6.5 goals	—	28.00 soft	—
Under 6.5 goals	—	1.04 soft	—
Over 7.5 goals	—	78.14 soft	—
Under 7.5 goals	—	1.01 soft	—

Both teams to score

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
Both teams to score: Yes		1.67 soft
Both teams to score: No		2.50 soft

1st half winner

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
1st half: SC Freiburg to win	2.24	2.30	−4.4%
1st half: draw	2.67	2.76	−9.3%
1st half: Borussia Mönchengladbach to win	4.69	4.93	−8.8%

1st half over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
1st half: Over 0.5 goals	—	1.29 soft	—
1st half: Under 0.5 goals	—	4.47 soft	—
1st half: Over 1.5 goals	2.26	2.38	−7.5%
1st half: Under 1.5 goals	1.67	1.73	−6.1%
1st half: Over 2.5 goals	—	6.16 soft	—
1st half: Under 2.5 goals	—	1.19 soft	—
1st half: Over 3.5 goals	—	28.00 soft	—
1st half: Under 3.5 goals	—	1.04 soft	—

2nd half winner

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
2nd half: SC Freiburg to win		2.12 soft
2nd half: draw		3.13 soft
2nd half: Borussia Mönchengladbach to win		4.77 soft

2nd half over/under

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
2nd half: Over 0.5 goals		1.19 soft
2nd half: Under 0.5 goals		6.16 soft
2nd half: Over 1.5 goals		1.85 soft
2nd half: Under 1.5 goals		2.18 soft
2nd half: Over 2.5 goals		3.93 soft
2nd half: Under 2.5 goals		1.34 soft
2nd half: Over 3.5 goals		11.55 soft
2nd half: Under 3.5 goals		1.09 soft
2nd half: Over 4.5 goals		40.64 soft
2nd half: Under 4.5 goals		1.02 soft

Exact score

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Exact score 1:1	7.50	11.76	−36.2%
Exact score 2:1	6.75	10.34	−17.8%
Exact score 1:0	7.50	11.76	−15.0%
Exact score 2:0	7.50	11.76	−15.0%
Exact score 3:1	12.00	20.90	−42.6%
Exact score 2:2	12.00	20.90	−42.6%
Exact score 3:0	14.00	25.24	−40.6%
Exact score 1:2	10.00	16.72	−10.3%
Exact score 0:0	17.00	32.01	−46.9%
Exact score 0:1	11.50	19.84	−14.3%

32 more not shown

Corners over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 8.5 corners	1.56	1.63	+2.4%
Under 8.5 corners	2.37	2.58	−18.7%
Over 9 corners	1.72	1.80	+6.6%
Under 9 corners	2.11	2.25	−16.4%
Over 9.5 corners	1.96	2.05	−6.9%
Under 9.5 corners	1.87	1.95	−7.7%

Cards over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 3.5 cards	1.70	1.78	−6.3%
Under 3.5 cards	2.13	2.28	−7.8%
Over 4.5 cards	2.51	2.73	−23.0%
Under 4.5 cards	1.52	1.58	+5.8%

Anytime scorer

Bet365 Real
Selection	Bet365
Igor Matanovic anytime scorer
Vincenzo Grifo anytime scorer
Yuito Suzuki anytime scorer
Lucas Holer anytime scorer
Derry Scherhant anytime scorer
Keisuke Goto anytime scorer
Jan-Niklas Beste anytime scorer
Tim Kleindienst anytime scorer
Isac Lidberg anytime scorer
Cyriaque Irie anytime scorer
Shuto Machino anytime scorer
Maximilian Eggestein anytime scorer

33 more not shown

Total fouls, Goals by 15-minute window

Empty not priced by this bookmaker

15:30

FC Augsburg v Bayer Leverkusen

Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3

Published pick

FC Augsburgfair 3.89−7.5%

Drawfair 4.26−6.0%

Bayer Leverkusenfair 1.97−3.5%

1.47 – 2.09 implied goals Model

Bet365 3.55 vs Pinnacle fair 2.61 on FC Augsburg -0.5 (AH): EV +36.2%. The gap clears the Value bar and Pinnacle's margin is tight enough to trust the reference. Prices imply 1.47 goals for FC Augsburg and 2.09 for Bayer Leverkusen.

Risk A one-goal swing inside the handicap.

Bet: FC Augsburg -0.5 (AH) @ 3.55

All markets, availability and referee

Availability Real

FC Augsburg — out: T. Breithaupt (Injury), S. Mounie (Injury), F. Sakar (Ankle Injury), S. Suso (Muscle Injury); doubtful: A. Kade (Injury)

Bayer Leverkusen — out: M. Culbreath (Injury), K. Eichhorn (Illness), N. Tella (Injury)

Referee: not in feed.

Prices as of Bet365 12:36, Pinnacle 12:36 (Vienna). Bet365 1X2 margin 5.4%, Pinnacle 3.1% Model

Double chance

Bet365 Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Fair	EV
FC Augsburg or draw	2.03	−6.0%
FC Augsburg or Bayer Leverkusen	1.31	−6.7%
Bayer Leverkusen or draw	1.35	−7.1%

Asian handicap

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Bayer Leverkusen 0 (AH)	1.48	1.50	−5.6%
FC Augsburg 0 (AH)	2.86	2.98	−7.9%
Bayer Leverkusen +0.25 (AH)	1.70	1.57	+5.0%
Bayer Leverkusen -0.25 (AH)	1.38	1.52	−11.2%
FC Augsburg +0.25 (AH)	2.28	2.92	−24.7%
FC Augsburg -0.25 (AH)	3.28	2.75	+12.7%
Bayer Leverkusen +0.5 (AH)	1.94	1.62	+17.1%
Bayer Leverkusen -0.5 (AH)	1.31	1.52	−16.7%
FC Augsburg +0.5 (AH)	1.98	2.91	−32.9%
FC Augsburg -0.5 (AH)	3.71	2.61	+36.2%
Bayer Leverkusen +0.75 (AH)	2.18	1.61 soft	—
Bayer Leverkusen -0.75 (AH)	—	1.47 soft	—
FC Augsburg +0.75 (AH)	1.76	3.13 soft	—
FC Augsburg -0.75 (AH)	—	2.63 soft	—
Bayer Leverkusen +1 (AH)	2.59	1.60 soft	—
Bayer Leverkusen -1 (AH)	—	1.40 soft	—
FC Augsburg +1 (AH)	1.56	3.49 soft	—
FC Augsburg -1 (AH)	—	2.66 soft	—
Bayer Leverkusen +1.25 (AH)	2.91	1.63 soft	—
Bayer Leverkusen -1.25 (AH)	—	1.39 soft	—
FC Augsburg +1.25 (AH)	1.45	3.58 soft	—
FC Augsburg -1.25 (AH)	—	2.59 soft	—
Bayer Leverkusen +1.5 (AH)	3.23	1.67 soft	—
Bayer Leverkusen -1.5 (AH)	—	1.43 soft	—
FC Augsburg +1.5 (AH)	1.38	3.33 soft	—
FC Augsburg -1.5 (AH)	—	2.49 soft	—
Bayer Leverkusen +1.75 (AH)	3.49	—	—
FC Augsburg +1.75 (AH)	1.33	—	—
Bayer Leverkusen +2 (AH)	—	—	—
FC Augsburg +2 (AH)	—	—	—
Bayer Leverkusen +2.25 (AH)	—	—	—
FC Augsburg +2.25 (AH)	—	—	—
Bayer Leverkusen +2.5 (AH)	—	—	—
FC Augsburg +2.5 (AH)	—	—	—
Bayer Leverkusen +2.75 (AH)	—	—	—
FC Augsburg +2.75 (AH)	—	—	—

Goals over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 0.5 goals	—	1.02 soft	—
Under 0.5 goals	—	40.64 soft	—
Over 1.5 goals	—	1.13 soft	—
Under 1.5 goals	—	8.77 soft	—
Over 2.5 goals	1.41	1.45	−3.3%
Under 2.5 goals	2.98	3.24	−7.3%
Over 3.5 goals	2.04	2.09	−4.2%
Under 3.5 goals	1.88	1.92	−6.2%
Over 4.5 goals	3.25	3.55	−9.9%
Under 4.5 goals	1.36	1.39	−2.3%
Over 5.5 goals	—	7.13 soft	—
Under 5.5 goals	—	1.16 soft	—
Over 6.5 goals	—	17.63 soft	—
Under 6.5 goals	—	1.06 soft	—
Over 7.5 goals	—	72.04 soft	—
Under 7.5 goals	—	1.01 soft	—
Over 8.5 goals	—	—	—

Both teams to score

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
Both teams to score: Yes		1.47 soft
Both teams to score: No		3.15 soft

1st half winner

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
1st half: FC Augsburg to win	3.99	4.17	−10.1%
1st half: draw	2.75	2.84	−7.8%
1st half: Bayer Leverkusen to win	2.38	2.45	−6.0%

1st half over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
1st half: Over 0.5 goals	—	1.26 soft	—
1st half: Under 0.5 goals	—	4.90 soft	—
1st half: Over 1.5 goals	2.07	2.16	−7.4%
1st half: Under 1.5 goals	1.80	1.86	−7.1%
1st half: Over 2.5 goals	—	5.32 soft	—
1st half: Under 2.5 goals	—	1.23 soft	—
1st half: Over 3.5 goals	—	17.63 soft	—
1st half: Under 3.5 goals	—	1.06 soft	—
1st half: Over 4.5 goals	—	76.09 soft	—
1st half: Under 4.5 goals	—	1.01 soft	—

2nd half winner

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
2nd half: FC Augsburg to win		3.92 soft
2nd half: draw		3.25 soft
2nd half: Bayer Leverkusen to win		2.29 soft

2nd half over/under

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
2nd half: Over 0.5 goals		1.14 soft
2nd half: Under 0.5 goals		8.08 soft
2nd half: Over 1.5 goals		1.71 soft
2nd half: Under 1.5 goals		2.41 soft
2nd half: Over 2.5 goals		3.15 soft
2nd half: Under 2.5 goals		1.47 soft
2nd half: Over 3.5 goals		8.08 soft
2nd half: Under 3.5 goals		1.14 soft
2nd half: Over 4.5 goals		28.00 soft
2nd half: Under 4.5 goals		1.04 soft

Exact score

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Exact score 1:1	7.00	11.01	−22.8%
Exact score 1:2	8.50	13.99	−35.7%
Exact score 2:2	11.00	19.23	−42.8%
Exact score 2:1	13.00	23.62	−45.0%
Exact score 0:1	9.50	16.05	−19.0%
Exact score 0:2	9.50	16.05	−19.0%
Exact score 1:3	9.00	15.01	−13.4%
Exact score 2:3	17.00	32.89	−48.3%
Exact score 1:0	12.00	21.41	−11.2%
Exact score 0:3	17.00	32.89	−42.2%

32 more not shown

Corners over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 10 corners	1.93	2.01	−5.5%
Under 10 corners	1.91	1.99	−4.5%
Over 10.5 corners	2.13	2.28	−7.8%
Under 10.5 corners	1.70	1.78	−6.3%

Cards over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 3.5 cards	1.88	1.97	−8.7%
Under 3.5 cards	1.93	2.03	−5.9%
Over 4.5 cards	2.82	3.19	−31.0%
Under 4.5 cards	1.40	1.46	+11.2%

Anytime scorer

Bet365 Real
Selection	Bet365
Patrik Schick anytime scorer
Victor Boniface anytime scorer
Christian Kofane anytime scorer
Moussa Diaby anytime scorer
Martin Terrier anytime scorer
Eliesse Ben Seghir anytime scorer
Montrell Culbreath anytime scorer
Nathan Tella anytime scorer
Michael Gregoritsch anytime scorer
Afonso Moreira anytime scorer
Rodrigo Ribeiro anytime scorer
Arijon Ibrahimovic anytime scorer

34 more not shown

Total fouls, Goals by 15-minute window

Empty not priced by this bookmaker

15:30

FSV Mainz 05 v Eintracht Frankfurt

Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3

Published pick

FSV Mainz 05fair 1.87−2.2%

Drawfair 4.28−4.2%

Eintracht Frankfurtfair 4.31−13.0%

2.07 – 1.34 implied goals Model

Bet365 4.25 vs Pinnacle fair 2.60 on Eintracht Frankfurt +0.75 (AH): EV +63.8%. The gap clears the Value bar and Pinnacle's margin is tight enough to trust the reference. Prices imply 2.07 goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.34 for Eintracht Frankfurt.

Risk A one-goal swing inside the handicap.

Bet: Eintracht Frankfurt +0.75 (AH) @ 4.25

All markets, availability and referee

Availability Real

FSV Mainz 05 — out: D. Kohr (Foot Injury), E. Martel (Knee Injury), P. Nebel (Muscle Injury), Silas (Broken shinbone), S. Widmer (Knee Injury)

Eintracht Frankfurt — out: N. Collins (Back Injury), J. Ngankam (Injury); doubtful: F. Chaibi (Illness), A. Knauff (Muscle Injury), M. Pimpong (Illness)

Referee: not in feed.

Prices as of Bet365 08:39, Pinnacle 08:39 (Vienna). Bet365 1X2 margin 5.7%, Pinnacle 3.7% Model

Double chance

Bet365 Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Fair	EV
FSV Mainz 05 or draw	1.30	−1.7%
FSV Mainz 05 or Eintracht Frankfurt	1.30	−6.5%
Eintracht Frankfurt or draw	2.15	−14.8%

Asian handicap

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Eintracht Frankfurt 0 (AH)	3.12	3.34	−19.7%
FSV Mainz 05 0 (AH)	1.40	1.43	+1.5%
Eintracht Frankfurt +0.25 (AH)	3.59	2.97	+4.4%
Eintracht Frankfurt -0.25 (AH)	2.42	3.24	−33.6%
FSV Mainz 05 +0.25 (AH)	1.32	1.45	−6.7%
FSV Mainz 05 -0.25 (AH)	1.62	1.51	+11.4%
Eintracht Frankfurt +0.5 (AH)	3.96	2.77	+24.5%
Eintracht Frankfurt -0.5 (AH)	2.06	3.11	−35.1%
FSV Mainz 05 +0.5 (AH)	1.28	1.47	−11.8%
FSV Mainz 05 -0.5 (AH)	1.83	1.56	+16.3%
Eintracht Frankfurt +0.75 (AH)	4.12	2.60	+63.8%
Eintracht Frankfurt -0.75 (AH)	1.85	2.98	−42.9%
FSV Mainz 05 +0.75 (AH)	1.26	1.51	−19.7%
FSV Mainz 05 -0.75 (AH)	2.06	1.63	+29.1%
Eintracht Frankfurt +1 (AH)	—	2.62 soft	—
Eintracht Frankfurt -1 (AH)	1.62	3.43 soft	—
FSV Mainz 05 +1 (AH)	—	1.41 soft	—
FSV Mainz 05 -1 (AH)	2.42	1.62 soft	—
Eintracht Frankfurt +1.25 (AH)	—	2.50 soft	—
Eintracht Frankfurt -1.25 (AH)	1.50	3.26 soft	—
FSV Mainz 05 +1.25 (AH)	—	1.44 soft	—
FSV Mainz 05 -1.25 (AH)	2.74	1.67 soft	—
Eintracht Frankfurt +1.5 (AH)	—	2.46 soft	—
Eintracht Frankfurt -1.5 (AH)	1.41	3.22 soft	—
FSV Mainz 05 +1.5 (AH)	—	1.45 soft	—
FSV Mainz 05 -1.5 (AH)	3.05	1.69 soft	—
Eintracht Frankfurt +1.75 (AH)	—	2.27 soft	—
Eintracht Frankfurt -1.75 (AH)	1.30	2.76 soft	—
FSV Mainz 05 +1.75 (AH)	—	1.57 soft	—
FSV Mainz 05 -1.75 (AH)	3.74	1.79 soft	—
Eintracht Frankfurt -2 (AH)	—	—	—
FSV Mainz 05 -2 (AH)	—	—	—
Eintracht Frankfurt -2.25 (AH)	—	—	—
FSV Mainz 05 -2.25 (AH)	—	—	—
Eintracht Frankfurt -2.5 (AH)	—	—	—
FSV Mainz 05 -2.5 (AH)	—	—	—

Goals over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 0.5 goals	—	1.03 soft	—
Under 0.5 goals	—	39.44 soft	—
Over 1.5 goals	—	1.16 soft	—
Under 1.5 goals	—	7.13 soft	—
Over 2.5 goals	1.47	1.51	−0.4%
Under 2.5 goals	2.79	2.98	−12.0%
Over 3.5 goals	2.13	2.22	−5.5%
Under 3.5 goals	1.76	1.82	−4.8%
Over 4.5 goals	—	4.23 soft	—
Under 4.5 goals	—	1.31 soft	—
Over 5.5 goals	—	8.77 soft	—
Under 5.5 goals	—	1.13 soft	—
Over 6.5 goals	—	21.74 soft	—
Under 6.5 goals	—	1.05 soft	—
Over 7.5 goals	—	73.77 soft	—
Under 7.5 goals	—	1.01 soft	—
Over 8.5 goals	—	—	—

Both teams to score

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
Both teams to score: Yes		1.51 soft
Both teams to score: No		2.96 soft

1st half winner

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
1st half: FSV Mainz 05 to win	2.32	2.40	+0.2%
1st half: draw	2.69	2.79	−10.5%
1st half: Eintracht Frankfurt to win	4.22	4.46	−15.8%

1st half over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
1st half: Over 0.5 goals	—	1.29 soft	—
1st half: Under 0.5 goals	—	4.47 soft	—
1st half: Over 1.5 goals	2.13	2.26	−7.0%
1st half: Under 1.5 goals	1.72	1.79	−6.9%
1st half: Over 2.5 goals	—	6.16 soft	—
1st half: Under 2.5 goals	—	1.19 soft	—
1st half: Over 3.5 goals	—	21.74 soft	—
1st half: Under 3.5 goals	—	1.05 soft	—

2nd half winner

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
2nd half: FSV Mainz 05 to win		2.46 soft
2nd half: draw		3.08 soft
2nd half: Eintracht Frankfurt to win		3.71 soft

2nd half over/under

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
2nd half: Over 0.5 goals		1.16 soft
2nd half: Under 0.5 goals		7.13 soft
2nd half: Over 1.5 goals		1.77 soft
2nd half: Under 1.5 goals		2.29 soft
2nd half: Over 2.5 goals		3.69 soft
2nd half: Under 2.5 goals		1.37 soft
2nd half: Over 3.5 goals		9.55 soft
2nd half: Under 3.5 goals		1.12 soft
2nd half: Over 4.5 goals		39.44 soft
2nd half: Under 4.5 goals		1.03 soft

Exact score

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Exact score 1:1	6.40	9.67	−17.3%
Exact score 2:1	7.00	10.79	−16.6%
Exact score 2:2	8.50	13.68	−19.6%
Exact score 1:0	9.00	14.67	−18.2%
Exact score 2:0	12.00	20.85	−42.4%
Exact score 3:1	13.00	22.99	−43.5%
Exact score 1:2	8.50	13.68	−5.0%
Exact score 0:1	16.00	29.64	−42.6%
Exact score 3:0	12.00	20.85	−8.9%
Exact score 3:2	18.50	35.39	−46.3%

32 more not shown

Corners over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Bet365	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 9.5 corners		1.76	1.85	−2.6%
Under 9.5 corners		2.05	2.18	−12.4%

Cards over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Bet365	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 4.5 cards		2.40	2.60	−15.4%
Under 4.5 cards		1.56	1.62	−0.3%

Anytime scorer

Bet365 Real
Selection	Bet365
Phillip Tietz anytime scorer
Ransford-Yeboah Konigsdorffer anytime scorer
Benedict Hollerbach anytime scorer
Sheraldo Becker anytime scorer
Jonathan Burkardt anytime scorer
Jae-Sung Lee anytime scorer
Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab anytime scorer
Ritsu Doan anytime scorer
Younes Ebnoutalib anytime scorer
Otto Ruoppi anytime scorer
Can Uzun anytime scorer
Nadiem Amiri anytime scorer

31 more not shown

Total fouls, Goals by 15-minute window

Empty not priced by this bookmaker

17:00

SCR Altach v Grazer AK

Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6

Published pick

SCR Altachfair 2.23−3.4%

Drawfair 3.60−8.4%

Grazer AKfair 3.67−7.2%

1.51 – 1.13 implied goals Model

Bet365 4.00 vs Pinnacle fair 2.39 on Grazer AK +0.75 (AH): EV +67.7%. The gap clears the Value bar and Pinnacle's margin is tight enough to trust the reference. Prices imply 1.51 goals for SCR Altach and 1.13 for Grazer AK.

Risk A one-goal swing inside the handicap.

Bet: Grazer AK +0.75 (AH) @ 4.00

All markets, availability and referee

Availability Real

SCR Altach — out: none listed

Grazer AK — out: none listed

Referee: not in feed.

Prices as of Bet365 12:06, Pinnacle 12:06 (Vienna). Bet365 1X2 margin 6.2%, Pinnacle 3.4% Model

Double chance

Bet365 Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Fair	EV
SCR Altach or draw	1.38	−5.5%
SCR Altach or Grazer AK	1.38	−3.9%
Grazer AK or draw	1.82	−8.1%

Asian handicap

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Grazer AK 0 (AH)	2.56	2.67	−10.7%
SCR Altach 0 (AH)	1.57	1.60	−3.2%
Grazer AK +0.25 (AH)	3.03	2.48	+11.0%
Grazer AK -0.25 (AH)	2.03	2.61	−24.0%
SCR Altach +0.25 (AH)	1.43	1.62	−12.5%
SCR Altach -0.25 (AH)	1.88	1.68	+8.6%
Grazer AK +0.5 (AH)	3.49	2.39	+37.9%
Grazer AK -0.5 (AH)	1.76	2.61	−34.8%
SCR Altach +0.5 (AH)	1.33	1.62	−18.6%
SCR Altach -0.5 (AH)	2.17	1.72	+22.3%
Grazer AK +0.75 (AH)	4.53	2.39	+67.7%
Grazer AK -0.75 (AH)	1.56	2.70	−44.5%
SCR Altach +0.75 (AH)	1.23	1.59	−22.6%
SCR Altach -0.75 (AH)	2.57	1.72	+45.2%
Grazer AK +1 (AH)	—	2.32 soft	—
Grazer AK -1 (AH)	1.36	2.77 soft	—
SCR Altach +1 (AH)	—	1.57 soft	—
SCR Altach -1 (AH)	3.35	1.76 soft	—
Grazer AK +1.25 (AH)	—	2.30 soft	—
Grazer AK -1.25 (AH)	1.29	2.68 soft	—
SCR Altach +1.25 (AH)	—	1.60 soft	—
SCR Altach -1.25 (AH)	3.82	1.77 soft	—
Grazer AK +1.5 (AH)	—	2.27 soft	—
Grazer AK -1.5 (AH)	1.27	2.71 soft	—
SCR Altach +1.5 (AH)	—	1.58 soft	—
SCR Altach -1.5 (AH)	3.99	1.79 soft	—
Grazer AK -1.75 (AH)	—	—	—
SCR Altach -1.75 (AH)	—	—	—

Goals over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 0.5 goals	—	1.06 soft	—
Under 0.5 goals	—	17.63 soft	—
Over 1.5 goals	1.29	1.32	−2.8%
Under 1.5 goals	3.73	4.15	−15.7%
Over 2.5 goals	1.96	2.02	−3.3%
Under 2.5 goals	1.93	1.98	−6.8%
Over 3.5 goals	3.41	3.72	−12.6%
Under 3.5 goals	1.34	1.37	−2.8%
Over 4.5 goals	6.89	8.48	−23.3%
Under 4.5 goals	1.12	1.13	−2.1%
Over 5.5 goals	—	28.00 soft	—
Under 5.5 goals	—	1.04 soft	—
Over 6.5 goals	—	78.14 soft	—
Under 6.5 goals	—	1.01 soft	—
Over 7.5 goals	—	—	—

Both teams to score

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
Both teams to score: Yes		1.77 soft
Both teams to score: No		2.29 soft

1st half winner

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
1st half: SCR Altach to win	2.79	2.90	−5.2%
1st half: draw	2.29	2.36	−6.9%
1st half: Grazer AK to win	4.09	4.31	−13.1%

1st half over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
1st half: Over 0.5 goals	1.38	1.42	−4.1%
1st half: Under 0.5 goals	3.08	3.39	−11.5%
1st half: Over 1.5 goals	2.88	3.16	−12.9%
1st half: Under 1.5 goals	1.42	1.46	−4.4%
1st half: Over 2.5 goals	—	9.55 soft	—
1st half: Under 2.5 goals	—	1.12 soft	—
1st half: Over 3.5 goals	—	72.04 soft	—
1st half: Under 3.5 goals	—	1.01 soft	—

2nd half winner

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
2nd half: SCR Altach to win		2.76 soft
2nd half: draw		2.76 soft
2nd half: Grazer AK to win		3.63 soft

2nd half over/under

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
2nd half: Over 0.5 goals		1.23 soft
2nd half: Under 0.5 goals		5.32 soft
2nd half: Over 1.5 goals		2.18 soft
2nd half: Under 1.5 goals		1.85 soft
2nd half: Over 2.5 goals		4.90 soft
2nd half: Under 2.5 goals		1.26 soft
2nd half: Over 3.5 goals		17.63 soft
2nd half: Under 3.5 goals		1.06 soft
2nd half: Over 4.5 goals		76.09 soft
2nd half: Under 4.5 goals		1.01 soft

Exact score

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
Exact score 1:1		7.42 soft
Exact score 1:0		10.96 soft
Exact score 2:1		11.68 soft
Exact score 2:0		14.62 soft
Exact score 0:0		14.62 soft
Exact score 2:2		16.11 soft
Exact score 0:1		16.11 soft
Exact score 1:2		16.11 soft
Exact score 3:1		23.79 soft
Exact score 3:0		26.94 soft

31 more not shown

Corners over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 9.5 corners	1.94	2.05	−12.3%
Under 9.5 corners	1.85	1.95	−2.0%
Over 10 corners	2.20	2.37	−24.9%
Under 10 corners	1.65	1.73	+16.8%
Over 10.5 corners	2.45	2.68	−21.6%
Under 10.5 corners	1.53	1.60	+4.6%

Cards over/under

Empty not priced by this bookmaker

Anytime scorer

Bet365 Real
Selection	Bet365
Patrick Greil anytime scorer
Ousmane Diawara anytime scorer
Marko Raguz anytime scorer
Srdan Hrstic anytime scorer
Shingo Nakano anytime scorer
Daniel Maderner anytime scorer
Erkin Yalcin anytime scorer
Alexander Hofleitner anytime scorer
Anthony Smits anytime scorer
Denizcan Cosgun anytime scorer
Mark Grosse anytime scorer
Salif Tietietta anytime scorer

38 more not shown

Total fouls, Goals by 15-minute window

Empty not priced by this bookmaker

18:30

1. FC Köln v Werder Bremen

Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3

Published pick

1. FC Kölnfair 2.13−6.3%

Drawfair 3.98−4.5%

Werder Bremenfair 3.57−4.8%

1.83 – 1.39 implied goals Model

Bet365 4.00 vs Pinnacle fair 2.42 on Werder Bremen +0.75 (AH): EV +65.0%. The gap clears the Value bar and Pinnacle's margin is tight enough to trust the reference. Prices imply 1.83 goals for 1. FC Köln and 1.39 for Werder Bremen.

Risk A one-goal swing inside the handicap.

Bet: Werder Bremen +0.75 (AH) @ 4.00

All markets, availability and referee

Availability Real

1. FC Köln — out: T. Hubers (Knee Injury)

Werder Bremen — out: F. Agu (Calf Injury), S. Lynen (Hip Injury), J. Njinmah (Thigh Injury), J. Stage (Muscle Injury), K. Topp (Knee Injury)

Referee: not in feed.

Prices as of Bet365 12:36, Pinnacle 12:36 (Vienna). Bet365 1X2 margin 5.7%, Pinnacle 2.9% Model

Double chance

Bet365 Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Fair	EV
1. FC Köln or draw	1.39	−6.4%
1. FC Köln or Werder Bremen	1.34	−6.4%
Werder Bremen or draw	1.88	−4.4%

Asian handicap

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Werder Bremen 0 (AH)	2.59	2.68	−9.7%
1. FC Köln 0 (AH)	1.57	1.59	−4.7%
Werder Bremen +0.25 (AH)	3.01	2.51	+13.7%
Werder Bremen -0.25 (AH)	2.10	2.64	−23.4%
1. FC Köln +0.25 (AH)	1.44	1.61	−13.1%
1. FC Köln -0.25 (AH)	1.84	1.66	+7.0%
Werder Bremen +0.5 (AH)	3.41	2.42	+36.1%
Werder Bremen -0.5 (AH)	1.83	2.63	−31.4%
1. FC Köln +0.5 (AH)	1.35	1.61	−18.3%
1. FC Köln -0.5 (AH)	2.09	1.70	+20.4%
Werder Bremen +0.75 (AH)	4.33	2.42	+65.0%
Werder Bremen -0.75 (AH)	1.63	2.72	−41.2%
1. FC Köln +0.75 (AH)	1.25	1.58	−22.2%
1. FC Köln -0.75 (AH)	2.41	1.70	+35.1%
Werder Bremen +1 (AH)	—	2.44 soft	—
Werder Bremen -1 (AH)	1.44	3.02 soft	—
1. FC Köln +1 (AH)	—	1.49 soft	—
1. FC Köln -1 (AH)	2.97	1.69 soft	—
Werder Bremen +1.25 (AH)	—	2.40 soft	—
Werder Bremen -1.25 (AH)	1.36	2.97 soft	—
1. FC Köln +1.25 (AH)	—	1.51 soft	—
1. FC Köln -1.25 (AH)	3.36	1.72 soft	—
Werder Bremen +1.5 (AH)	—	2.32 soft	—
Werder Bremen -1.5 (AH)	1.31	2.78 soft	—
1. FC Köln +1.5 (AH)	—	1.56 soft	—
1. FC Köln -1.5 (AH)	3.70	1.76 soft	—
Werder Bremen +1.75 (AH)	—	2.21 soft	—
Werder Bremen -1.75 (AH)	—	2.57 soft	—
1. FC Köln +1.75 (AH)	—	1.64 soft	—
1. FC Köln -1.75 (AH)	—	1.83 soft	—
Werder Bremen -2 (AH)	—	—	—
1. FC Köln -2 (AH)	—	—	—
Werder Bremen -2.25 (AH)	—	—	—
1. FC Köln -2.25 (AH)	—	—	—

Goals over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 0.5 goals	—	1.04 soft	—
Under 0.5 goals	—	28.00 soft	—
Over 1.5 goals	—	1.19 soft	—
Under 1.5 goals	—	6.16 soft	—
Over 2.5 goals	1.56	1.60	−1.7%
Under 2.5 goals	2.55	2.68	−11.1%
Over 3.5 goals	2.37	2.46	−6.5%
Under 3.5 goals	1.65	1.69	−3.9%
Over 4.5 goals	—	5.06 soft	—
Under 4.5 goals	—	1.25 soft	—
Over 5.5 goals	—	11.55 soft	—
Under 5.5 goals	—	1.09 soft	—
Over 6.5 goals	—	28.00 soft	—
Under 6.5 goals	—	1.04 soft	—
Over 7.5 goals	—	78.14 soft	—
Under 7.5 goals	—	1.01 soft	—
Over 8.5 goals	—	—	—

Both teams to score

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
Both teams to score: Yes		1.57 soft
Both teams to score: No		2.76 soft

1st half winner

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
1st half: 1. FC Köln to win	2.56	2.64	−5.2%
1st half: draw	2.62	2.70	−11.1%
1st half: Werder Bremen to win	3.83	3.99	−9.9%

1st half over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
1st half: Over 0.5 goals	—	1.29 soft	—
1st half: Under 0.5 goals	—	4.47 soft	—
1st half: Over 1.5 goals	2.23	2.35	−4.4%
1st half: Under 1.5 goals	1.68	1.74	−9.7%
1st half: Over 2.5 goals	—	7.13 soft	—
1st half: Under 2.5 goals	—	1.16 soft	—
1st half: Over 3.5 goals	—	28.00 soft	—
1st half: Under 3.5 goals	—	1.04 soft	—

2nd half winner

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
2nd half: 1. FC Köln to win		2.46 soft
2nd half: draw		3.08 soft
2nd half: Werder Bremen to win		3.71 soft

2nd half over/under

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
2nd half: Over 0.5 goals		1.19 soft
2nd half: Under 0.5 goals		6.16 soft
2nd half: Over 1.5 goals		1.85 soft
2nd half: Under 1.5 goals		2.18 soft
2nd half: Over 2.5 goals		3.93 soft
2nd half: Under 2.5 goals		1.34 soft
2nd half: Over 3.5 goals		11.55 soft
2nd half: Under 3.5 goals		1.09 soft
2nd half: Over 4.5 goals		40.64 soft
2nd half: Under 4.5 goals		1.02 soft

Exact score

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
Exact score 1:1		9.44 soft
Exact score 2:1		11.57 soft
Exact score 1:0		14.47 soft
Exact score 2:2		14.47 soft
Exact score 2:0		15.95 soft
Exact score 1:2		15.95 soft
Exact score 3:1		20.45 soft
Exact score 0:1		20.45 soft
Exact score 0:0		23.51 soft
Exact score 3:0		26.61 soft

32 more not shown

Corners over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 10 corners	1.92	2.00	−10.0%
Under 10 corners	1.92	2.00	+0.0%
Over 10.5 corners	2.11	2.25	−11.0%
Under 10.5 corners	1.72	1.80	−4.0%

Cards over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Bet365	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 4.5 cards		2.23	2.39	−12.0%
Under 4.5 cards		1.65	1.72	−3.0%

Anytime scorer

Bet365 Real
Selection	Bet365
Ragnar Ache anytime scorer
Said El Mala anytime scorer
Thijs Dallinga anytime scorer
Luca Waldschmidt anytime scorer
Imad Rondic anytime scorer
Cedric Itten anytime scorer
Salim Musah anytime scorer
Niclas Fullkrug anytime scorer
Kenny Quetant anytime scorer
Marius Bulter anytime scorer
Mikey Moore anytime scorer
Marco Grull anytime scorer

36 more not shown

Total fouls, Goals by 15-minute window

Empty not priced by this bookmaker

19:30

Wolfsberger AC v Rapid Vienna

Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6

Published pick

Wolfsberger ACfair 5.64−6.9%

Drawfair 5.07−17.2%

Rapid Viennafair 1.60−1.8%

1.13 – 2.26 implied goals Model

Bet365 4.50 vs Pinnacle fair 3.73 on Wolfsberger AC -0.25 (AH): EV +20.7%. The gap clears the Value bar and Pinnacle's margin is tight enough to trust the reference. Prices imply 1.13 goals for Wolfsberger AC and 2.26 for Rapid Vienna.

Risk A one-goal swing inside the handicap.

Bet: Wolfsberger AC -0.25 (AH) @ 4.50

All markets, availability and referee

Availability Real

Wolfsberger AC — out: none listed

Rapid Vienna — out: none listed

Referee: not in feed.

Prices as of Bet365 12:06, Pinnacle 12:06 (Vienna). Bet365 1X2 margin 6.6%, Pinnacle 3.7% Model

Double chance

Bet365 Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Fair	EV
Wolfsberger AC or draw	2.67	−21.3%
Wolfsberger AC or Rapid Vienna	1.25	+0.4%
Rapid Vienna or draw	1.22	−2.9%

Asian handicap

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Rapid Vienna 0 (AH)	1.25	1.27	−3.2%
Wolfsberger AC 0 (AH)	4.21	4.69	−14.7%
Rapid Vienna +0.25 (AH)	1.40	1.37	+2.5%
Rapid Vienna -0.25 (AH)	1.26	1.33	−10.6%
Wolfsberger AC +0.25 (AH)	3.08	4.02	−29.1%
Wolfsberger AC -0.25 (AH)	4.13	3.73	+20.7%
Rapid Vienna +0.5 (AH)	1.56	1.40 soft	—
Rapid Vienna -0.5 (AH)	—	1.29 soft	—
Wolfsberger AC +0.5 (AH)	2.55	4.44 soft	—
Wolfsberger AC -0.5 (AH)	—	3.53 soft	—
Rapid Vienna +0.75 (AH)	1.71	1.40 soft	—
Rapid Vienna -0.75 (AH)	—	1.23 soft	—
Wolfsberger AC +0.75 (AH)	2.24	5.32 soft	—
Wolfsberger AC -0.75 (AH)	—	3.49 soft	—
Rapid Vienna +1 (AH)	1.96	—	—
Wolfsberger AC +1 (AH)	1.94	—	—
Rapid Vienna +1.25 (AH)	2.27	—	—
Wolfsberger AC +1.25 (AH)	1.70	—	—
Rapid Vienna +1.5 (AH)	2.58	—	—
Wolfsberger AC +1.5 (AH)	1.55	—	—
Rapid Vienna +1.75 (AH)	3.07	—	—
Wolfsberger AC +1.75 (AH)	1.41	—	—
Rapid Vienna +2 (AH)	4.04	—	—
Wolfsberger AC +2 (AH)	1.27	—	—
Rapid Vienna +2.25 (AH)	—	—	—
Wolfsberger AC +2.25 (AH)	—	—	—
Rapid Vienna +2.5 (AH)	—	—	—
Wolfsberger AC +2.5 (AH)	—	—	—
Rapid Vienna +2.75 (AH)	—	—	—
Wolfsberger AC +2.75 (AH)	—	—	—

Goals over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 0.5 goals	—	1.02 soft	—
Under 0.5 goals	—	40.64 soft	—
Over 1.5 goals	1.17	1.19	−5.6%
Under 1.5 goals	5.50	6.38	−5.9%
Over 2.5 goals	1.48	1.52	−2.5%
Under 2.5 goals	2.74	2.93	−11.2%
Over 3.5 goals	2.25	2.34	−10.3%
Under 3.5 goals	1.70	1.75	−4.3%
Over 4.5 goals	3.99	4.42	−20.8%
Under 4.5 goals	1.27	1.29	−1.0%
Over 5.5 goals	—	8.77 soft	—
Under 5.5 goals	—	1.13 soft	—
Over 6.5 goals	—	28.00 soft	—
Under 6.5 goals	—	1.04 soft	—
Over 7.5 goals	—	76.09 soft	—
Under 7.5 goals	—	1.01 soft	—
Over 8.5 goals	—	—	—

Both teams to score

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
Both teams to score: Yes		1.61 soft
Both teams to score: No		2.64 soft

1st half winner

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
1st half: Wolfsberger AC to win	5.25	5.61	−10.8%
1st half: draw	2.71	2.82	−11.3%
1st half: Rapid Vienna to win	2.08	2.14	−4.3%

1st half over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
1st half: Over 0.5 goals	—	1.29 soft	—
1st half: Under 0.5 goals	—	4.47 soft	—
1st half: Over 1.5 goals	2.24	2.38	−7.6%
1st half: Under 1.5 goals	1.66	1.73	−6.1%
1st half: Over 2.5 goals	—	6.16 soft	—
1st half: Under 2.5 goals	—	1.19 soft	—
1st half: Over 3.5 goals	—	28.00 soft	—
1st half: Under 3.5 goals	—	1.04 soft	—

2nd half winner

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
2nd half: Wolfsberger AC to win		5.08 soft
2nd half: draw		3.07 soft
2nd half: Rapid Vienna to win		2.10 soft

2nd half over/under

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
2nd half: Over 0.5 goals		1.19 soft
2nd half: Under 0.5 goals		6.16 soft
2nd half: Over 1.5 goals		1.94 soft
2nd half: Under 1.5 goals		2.07 soft
2nd half: Over 2.5 goals		4.11 soft
2nd half: Under 2.5 goals		1.32 soft
2nd half: Over 3.5 goals		11.55 soft
2nd half: Under 3.5 goals		1.09 soft
2nd half: Over 4.5 goals		40.64 soft
2nd half: Under 4.5 goals		1.02 soft

Exact score

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
Exact score 1:1		10.16 soft
Exact score 1:2		10.88 soft
Exact score 0:2		12.31 soft
Exact score 0:1		13.04 soft
Exact score 1:3		15.97 soft
Exact score 2:2		17.47 soft
Exact score 0:3		17.47 soft
Exact score 2:1		23.56 soft
Exact score 0:0		23.56 soft
Exact score 1:0		26.67 soft

31 more not shown

Corners over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 9.5 corners	1.68	1.76	+3.8%
Under 9.5 corners	2.15	2.31	−20.8%
Over 10 corners	1.87	1.97	−4.4%
Under 10 corners	1.93	2.04	−5.6%
Over 10.5 corners	2.08	2.23	−5.9%
Under 10.5 corners	1.72	1.81	−7.8%

Cards over/under

Empty not priced by this bookmaker

Anytime scorer

Bet365 Real
Selection	Bet365
Tonni Adamsen anytime scorer
Ercan Kara anytime scorer
Nicolas Jozepovic anytime scorer
Giacomo Vrioni anytime scorer
Andrija Radulovic anytime scorer
Claudy Mbuyi anytime scorer
Nikolaus Wurmbrand anytime scorer
Tobias Gulliksen anytime scorer
Phillip Verhounig anytime scorer
Yusuf Demir anytime scorer
Marco Tilio anytime scorer
Louis Schaub anytime scorer

43 more not shown

Total fouls, Goals by 15-minute window

Empty not priced by this bookmaker

Premier League6 matches

16:00

Bournemouth v Brentford

Premier League, Regular Season - 4

Published pick

Bournemouthfair 2.54−3.5%

Drawfair 3.81−5.5%

Brentfordfair 2.91−3.7%

1.59 – 1.48 implied goals Model

Bet365 4.25 vs Pinnacle fair 2.09 on Brentford +1 (AH): EV +103.3%. The gap clears the Value bar and Pinnacle's margin is tight enough to trust the reference. Prices imply 1.59 goals for Bournemouth and 1.48 for Brentford.

Risk A one-goal swing inside the handicap.

Bet: Brentford +1 (AH) @ 4.25

All markets, availability and referee

Availability Real

Bournemouth — out: A. Adli (Calf Injury), J. Araujo (Thigh Injury), E. J. Kroupi (Foot Injury), V. Milosavljevic (Injury)

Brentford — out: N. Collins (Injury), J. Dasilva (Injury), M. Jensen (Muscle Injury), A. Milambo (Knee Injury), S. van den Berg (Injury)

Referee: not in feed.

Prices as of Bet365 11:52, Pinnacle 11:52 (Vienna). Bet365 1X2 margin 4.3%, Pinnacle 2.8% Model

Double chance

Bet365 Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Fair	EV
Bournemouth or draw	1.52	−8.1%
Bournemouth or Brentford	1.36	−5.6%
Brentford or draw	1.65	−9.0%

Asian handicap

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Brentford 0 (AH)	2.10	2.15	−4.5%
Bournemouth 0 (AH)	1.84	1.87	−3.9%
Brentford +0.25 (AH)	2.46	2.11	+8.8%
Brentford -0.25 (AH)	1.78	2.13	−20.2%
Bournemouth +0.25 (AH)	1.62	1.88	−15.1%
Bournemouth -0.25 (AH)	2.16	1.90	+10.7%
Brentford +0.5 (AH)	2.82	2.10	+27.9%
Brentford -0.5 (AH)	1.61	2.13	−27.3%
Bournemouth +0.5 (AH)	1.49	1.88	−23.0%
Bournemouth -0.5 (AH)	2.48	1.91	+24.4%
Brentford +0.75 (AH)	3.44	2.09	+57.6%
Brentford -0.75 (AH)	1.44	2.15	−34.7%
Bournemouth +0.75 (AH)	1.35	1.87	−29.5%
Bournemouth -0.75 (AH)	2.96	1.91	+48.9%
Brentford +1 (AH)	4.72	2.09	+103.3%
Brentford -1 (AH)	1.29	2.19	−42.4%
Bournemouth +1 (AH)	1.22	1.84	−34.3%
Bournemouth -1 (AH)	3.93	1.92	+93.0%
Brentford +1.25 (AH)	—	2.06 soft	—
Brentford -1.25 (AH)	—	2.14 soft	—
Bournemouth +1.25 (AH)	—	1.88 soft	—
Bournemouth -1.25 (AH)	—	1.95 soft	—
Brentford +1.5 (AH)	—	2.07 soft	—
Brentford -1.5 (AH)	—	2.12 soft	—
Bournemouth +1.5 (AH)	—	1.90 soft	—
Bournemouth -1.5 (AH)	—	1.94 soft	—
Brentford +1.75 (AH)	—	2.06 soft	—
Brentford -1.75 (AH)	—	2.19 soft	—
Bournemouth +1.75 (AH)	—	1.84 soft	—
Bournemouth -1.75 (AH)	—	1.95 soft	—

Goals over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 0.5 goals	—	1.04 soft	—
Under 0.5 goals	—	28.00 soft	—
Over 1.5 goals	—	1.23 soft	—
Under 1.5 goals	—	5.41 soft	—
Over 2.5 goals	1.64	1.68	−3.4%
Under 2.5 goals	2.38	2.48	−7.1%
Over 3.5 goals	2.54	2.65	−5.9%
Under 3.5 goals	1.57	1.60	−4.6%
Over 4.5 goals	—	5.41 soft	—
Under 4.5 goals	—	1.23 soft	—
Over 5.5 goals	—	11.55 soft	—
Under 5.5 goals	—	1.09 soft	—
Over 6.5 goals	—	39.44 soft	—
Under 6.5 goals	—	1.03 soft	—
Over 7.5 goals	—	78.14 soft	—
Under 7.5 goals	—	1.01 soft	—

Both teams to score

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
Both teams to score: Yes		1.57 soft
Both teams to score: No		2.76 soft

1st half winner

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
1st half: Bournemouth to win	3.00	3.10	−7.2%
1st half: draw	2.50	2.57	−7.5%
1st half: Brentford to win	3.33	3.46	−10.3%

1st half over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
1st half: Over 0.5 goals	1.33	1.37	−6.8%
1st half: Under 0.5 goals	3.23	3.68	−4.9%
1st half: Over 1.5 goals	2.41	2.56	−12.1%
1st half: Under 1.5 goals	1.59	1.64	−4.3%
1st half: Over 2.5 goals	—	7.13 soft	—
1st half: Under 2.5 goals	—	1.16 soft	—
1st half: Over 3.5 goals	—	28.00 soft	—
1st half: Under 3.5 goals	—	1.04 soft	—

2nd half winner

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
2nd half: Bournemouth to win		2.95 soft
2nd half: draw		2.95 soft
2nd half: Brentford to win		3.11 soft

2nd half over/under

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
2nd half: Over 0.5 goals		1.19 soft
2nd half: Under 0.5 goals		6.16 soft
2nd half: Over 1.5 goals		1.94 soft
2nd half: Under 1.5 goals		2.07 soft
2nd half: Over 2.5 goals		4.47 soft
2nd half: Under 2.5 goals		1.29 soft
2nd half: Over 3.5 goals		13.12 soft
2nd half: Under 3.5 goals		1.08 soft
2nd half: Over 4.5 goals		72.04 soft
2nd half: Under 4.5 goals		1.01 soft

Exact score

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Exact score 1:1	5.75	9.94	−24.6%
Exact score 2:1	7.00	12.87	−14.5%
Exact score 2:2	8.00	15.34	−21.8%
Exact score 1:2	7.00	12.87	−6.8%
Exact score 1:0	8.00	15.34	−15.2%
Exact score 0:0	10.00	20.56	−27.0%
Exact score 0:1	8.50	16.61	−9.7%
Exact score 2:0	9.50	19.22	−11.6%
Exact score 3:1	11.00	23.30	−18.5%
Exact score 0:2	9.50	19.22	−1.1%

31 more not shown

Corners over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Bet365	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 10.5 corners		1.88	1.96	−2.9%
Under 10.5 corners		1.96	2.04	−7.1%

Cards over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Bet365	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 3.5 cards		1.63	1.70	−1.8%
Under 3.5 cards		2.26	2.43	−13.5%

Anytime scorer

Bet365 Real
Selection	Bet365
Igor Thiago anytime scorer
Evanilson anytime scorer
Daniel Jebbison anytime scorer
Callum Wilson anytime scorer
Alvaro Rodriguez anytime scorer
Kevin Schade anytime scorer
Rayan Vitor anytime scorer
Justin Kluivert anytime scorer
David Brooks anytime scorer
Jaidon Anthony anytime scorer
Dango Ouattara anytime scorer
Fabio Carvalho anytime scorer

32 more not shown

Total fouls, Goals by 15-minute window

Empty not priced by this bookmaker

16:00

Chelsea v Hull City

Premier League, Regular Season - 4

No bet, lean tracked

Chelseafair 1.23−2.7%

Drawfair 7.96−18.3%

Hull Cityfair 15.67−23.4%

2.83 – 0.70 implied goals Model

Bet365 1.83 vs Pinnacle fair 1.70 on Under 3.5 cards: EV +7.6%. Flat to slightly positive but under the Value bar: tracked, not sold. Prices imply 2.83 goals for Chelsea and 0.70 for Hull City.

Risk Single-match variance.

Bet: No bet — tracked: Under 3.5 cards @ 1.83

All markets, availability and referee

Availability Real

Chelsea — out: M. Caicedo (Injury), E. Emegha (Injury), J. Henderson (Wrist Injury), M. Palestra (Injury)

Hull City — out: I. Ansah (Back Injury), J. Butland (Arm Injury), D. Gyabi (Groin Injury), C. Hughes (Groin Injury), E. Matazo (Knee Injury), H. Morita (Calf Injury)

Referee: not in feed.

Prices as of Bet365 11:52, Pinnacle 11:52 (Vienna). Bet365 1X2 margin 7.0%, Pinnacle 3.4% Model

Double chance

Bet365 Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Fair	EV
Chelsea or draw	1.07	−1.7%
Chelsea or Hull City	1.14	−2.9%
Hull City or draw	5.28	−24.2%

Asian handicap

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real
Selection	Bet365	Pinnacle
Hull City -0.25 (AH)		—
Chelsea -0.25 (AH)		—
Hull City -0.5 (AH)		—
Chelsea -0.5 (AH)		—
Hull City -0.75 (AH)		3.89
Chelsea -0.75 (AH)		1.27
Hull City -1 (AH)		3.83
Chelsea -1 (AH)		1.28
Hull City -1.25 (AH)		2.86
Chelsea -1.25 (AH)		1.44
Hull City -1.5 (AH)		2.38
Chelsea -1.5 (AH)		1.60
Hull City -1.75 (AH)		2.14
Chelsea -1.75 (AH)		1.76
Hull City -2 (AH)		1.89
Chelsea -2 (AH)		2.02
Hull City -2.25 (AH)		1.68
Chelsea -2.25 (AH)		2.28
Hull City -2.5 (AH)		1.54
Chelsea -2.5 (AH)		2.54
Hull City -2.75 (AH)		1.40
Chelsea -2.75 (AH)		3.02
Hull City -3 (AH)		1.27
Chelsea -3 (AH)		3.89
Hull City -3.25 (AH)		—
Chelsea -3.25 (AH)		—
Hull City -3.5 (AH)		—
Chelsea -3.5 (AH)		—
Hull City -3.75 (AH)		—
Chelsea -3.75 (AH)		—

Goals over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 0.5 goals	—	1.02 soft	—
Under 0.5 goals	—	40.64 soft	—
Over 1.5 goals	—	1.14 soft	—
Under 1.5 goals	—	8.08 soft	—
Over 2.5 goals	1.42	1.46	−4.1%
Under 2.5 goals	2.92	3.18	−5.5%
Over 3.5 goals	2.10	2.17	−7.7%
Under 3.5 goals	1.81	1.86	−3.0%
Over 4.5 goals	3.48	3.85	−11.8%
Under 4.5 goals	1.32	1.35	−1.5%
Over 5.5 goals	—	7.13 soft	—
Under 5.5 goals	—	1.16 soft	—
Over 6.5 goals	—	17.63 soft	—
Under 6.5 goals	—	1.06 soft	—
Over 7.5 goals	—	72.04 soft	—
Under 7.5 goals	—	1.01 soft	—
Over 8.5 goals	—	—	—

Both teams to score

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
Both teams to score: Yes		2.00 soft
Both teams to score: No		2.00 soft

1st half winner

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
1st half: Chelsea to win	1.56	1.60	−1.7%
1st half: draw	3.23	3.44	−12.8%
1st half: Hull City to win	10.58	12.01	−25.0%

1st half over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
1st half: Over 0.5 goals	—	1.23 soft	—
1st half: Under 0.5 goals	—	5.32 soft	—
1st half: Over 1.5 goals	2.11	2.21	−9.6%
1st half: Under 1.5 goals	1.76	1.82	−5.2%
1st half: Over 2.5 goals	—	5.32 soft	—
1st half: Under 2.5 goals	—	1.23 soft	—
1st half: Over 3.5 goals	—	17.63 soft	—
1st half: Under 3.5 goals	—	1.06 soft	—
1st half: Over 4.5 goals	—	76.09 soft	—
1st half: Under 4.5 goals	—	1.01 soft	—

2nd half winner

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
2nd half: Chelsea to win		1.53 soft
2nd half: draw		3.97 soft
2nd half: Hull City to win		10.54 soft

2nd half over/under

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
2nd half: Over 0.5 goals		1.14 soft
2nd half: Under 0.5 goals		8.08 soft
2nd half: Over 1.5 goals		1.71 soft
2nd half: Under 1.5 goals		2.41 soft
2nd half: Over 2.5 goals		3.43 soft
2nd half: Under 2.5 goals		1.41 soft
2nd half: Over 3.5 goals		8.77 soft
2nd half: Under 3.5 goals		1.13 soft
2nd half: Over 4.5 goals		28.00 soft
2nd half: Under 4.5 goals		1.04 soft

Exact score

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
Exact score 2:0		9.46 soft
Exact score 3:0		10.74 soft
Exact score 2:1		12.04 soft
Exact score 1:0		13.35 soft
Exact score 3:1		13.35 soft
Exact score 4:0		15.98 soft
Exact score 1:1		15.98 soft
Exact score 4:1		21.36 soft
Exact score 0:0		26.84 soft
Exact score 5:0		26.84 soft

31 more not shown

Corners over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Bet365	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 9.5 corners		1.89	1.97	+1.7%
Under 9.5 corners		1.95	2.03	−11.5%

Cards over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Bet365	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 3.5 cards		2.26	2.43	−24.6%
Under 3.5 cards		1.63	1.70	+7.6%

Anytime scorer

Bet365 Real
Selection	Bet365
Joao Pedro anytime scorer
Cole Palmer anytime scorer
Danny Welbeck anytime scorer
Emanuel Emegha anytime scorer
Morgan Rogers anytime scorer
Estevao anytime scorer
Pedro Neto anytime scorer
Jamie Bynoe-Gittens anytime scorer
Geovany Quenda anytime scorer
Tyrell Sellars-Fleming anytime scorer
Valentin Barco anytime scorer
Oliver McBurnie anytime scorer

40 more not shown

Total fouls, Goals by 15-minute window

Empty not priced by this bookmaker

16:00

Crystal Palace v Ipswich

Premier League, Regular Season - 4

Published pick

Crystal Palacefair 1.95−4.9%

Drawfair 4.01−5.2%

Ipswichfair 4.23−10.2%

1.77 – 1.14 implied goals Model

Bet365 3.70 vs Pinnacle fair 2.69 on Ipswich +0.5 (AH): EV +37.4%. The gap clears the Value bar and Pinnacle's margin is tight enough to trust the reference. Prices imply 1.77 goals for Crystal Palace and 1.14 for Ipswich.

Risk A one-goal swing inside the handicap.

Bet: Ipswich +0.5 (AH) @ 3.70

All markets, availability and referee

Availability Real

Crystal Palace — out: J. Mateta (Hamstring Injury), C. Riad (Knee Injury), I. Sarr (Groin Injury); doubtful: E. Nketiah (Injury)

Ipswich — out: J. Taylor (Knee Injury)

Referee: not in feed.

Prices as of Bet365 11:52, Pinnacle 11:52 (Vienna). Bet365 1X2 margin 6.7%, Pinnacle 2.8% Model

Double chance

Bet365 Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Fair	EV
Crystal Palace or draw	1.31	−4.5%
Crystal Palace or Ipswich	1.33	−6.2%
Ipswich or draw	2.06	−7.2%

Asian handicap

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Ipswich 0 (AH)	3.06	3.21	−11.2%
Crystal Palace 0 (AH)	1.43	1.45	−3.6%
Ipswich +0.25 (AH)	3.54	2.87	+14.9%
Ipswich -0.25 (AH)	2.35	3.11	−29.2%
Crystal Palace +0.25 (AH)	1.34	1.48	−10.5%
Crystal Palace -0.25 (AH)	1.67	1.53	+7.5%
Ipswich +0.5 (AH)	4.02	2.69	+37.4%
Ipswich -0.5 (AH)	2.01	3.06	−35.3%
Crystal Palace +0.5 (AH)	1.28	1.49	−15.2%
Crystal Palace -0.5 (AH)	1.92	1.59	+18.2%
Ipswich +0.75 (AH)	—	2.68 soft	—
Ipswich -0.75 (AH)	1.77	3.25 soft	—
Crystal Palace +0.75 (AH)	—	1.44 soft	—
Crystal Palace -0.75 (AH)	2.18	1.59 soft	—
Ipswich -1 (AH)	1.54	—	—
Crystal Palace -1 (AH)	2.65	—	—
Ipswich -1.25 (AH)	1.43	—	—
Crystal Palace -1.25 (AH)	3.02	—	—
Ipswich -1.5 (AH)	1.36	—	—
Crystal Palace -1.5 (AH)	3.40	—	—
Ipswich -1.75 (AH)	—	—	—
Crystal Palace -1.75 (AH)	—	—	—
Ipswich -2 (AH)	—	—	—
Crystal Palace -2 (AH)	—	—	—
Ipswich -2.25 (AH)	—	—	—
Crystal Palace -2.25 (AH)	—	—	—
Ipswich -2.5 (AH)	—	—	—
Crystal Palace -2.5 (AH)	—	—	—

Goals over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 0.5 goals	—	1.05 soft	—
Under 0.5 goals	—	21.74 soft	—
Over 1.5 goals	1.26	1.28	−4.7%
Under 1.5 goals	4.13	4.56	−5.1%
Over 2.5 goals	1.75	1.79	−3.4%
Under 2.5 goals	2.19	2.26	−7.2%
Over 3.5 goals	2.82	2.99	−8.0%
Under 3.5 goals	1.47	1.50	−4.2%
Over 4.5 goals	—	6.16 soft	—
Under 4.5 goals	—	1.19 soft	—
Over 5.5 goals	—	15.07 soft	—
Under 5.5 goals	—	1.07 soft	—
Over 6.5 goals	—	72.04 soft	—
Under 6.5 goals	—	1.01 soft	—
Over 7.5 goals	—	—	—

Both teams to score

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
Both teams to score: Yes		1.81 soft
Both teams to score: No		2.23 soft

1st half winner

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
1st half: Crystal Palace to win	2.47	2.54	−1.7%
1st half: draw	2.46	2.53	−11.2%
1st half: Ipswich to win	4.49	4.71	−8.2%

1st half over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
1st half: Over 0.5 goals	1.35	1.38	−3.7%
1st half: Under 0.5 goals	3.31	3.62	−10.3%
1st half: Over 1.5 goals	2.59	2.77	−5.4%
1st half: Under 1.5 goals	1.52	1.56	−8.0%
1st half: Over 2.5 goals	—	9.55 soft	—
1st half: Under 2.5 goals	—	1.12 soft	—
1st half: Over 3.5 goals	—	40.64 soft	—
1st half: Under 3.5 goals	—	1.02 soft	—

2nd half winner

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
2nd half: Crystal Palace to win		2.39 soft
2nd half: draw		2.87 soft
2nd half: Ipswich to win		4.30 soft

2nd half over/under

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
2nd half: Over 0.5 goals		1.23 soft
2nd half: Under 0.5 goals		5.32 soft
2nd half: Over 1.5 goals		2.18 soft
2nd half: Under 1.5 goals		1.85 soft
2nd half: Over 2.5 goals		4.90 soft
2nd half: Under 2.5 goals		1.26 soft
2nd half: Over 3.5 goals		17.63 soft
2nd half: Under 3.5 goals		1.06 soft
2nd half: Over 4.5 goals		76.09 soft
2nd half: Under 4.5 goals		1.01 soft

Exact score

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Exact score 1:1	6.75	9.88	−24.1%
Exact score 1:0	7.50	11.21	−19.7%
Exact score 2:1	8.00	12.11	−21.6%
Exact score 2:0	8.50	13.03	−23.2%
Exact score 0:0	11.50	18.72	−35.9%
Exact score 0:1	10.50	16.78	−22.5%
Exact score 2:2	13.00	21.68	−30.8%
Exact score 1:2	11.50	18.72	−19.9%
Exact score 3:1	12.00	19.70	−13.7%
Exact score 3:0	13.00	21.68	−12.4%

28 more not shown

Corners over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 9.5 corners	1.92	2.00	−9.8%
Under 9.5 corners	1.93	2.01	−4.8%
Over 10 corners	2.10	2.23	−9.2%
Under 10 corners	1.74	1.82	−2.0%

Cards over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Bet365	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 3.5 cards		1.56	1.62	−0.2%
Under 3.5 cards		2.41	2.61	−15.6%

Anytime scorer

Bet365 Real
Selection	Bet365
Jorgen Larsen anytime scorer
Eddie Nketiah anytime scorer
Ismaila Sarr anytime scorer
Evann Guessand anytime scorer
Anis Mehmeti anytime scorer
Jesurun Rak-Sakyi anytime scorer
Zian Flemming anytime scorer
Emersonn Silva anytime scorer
Zavier Gozo anytime scorer
Dario Osorio anytime scorer
Chuba Akpom anytime scorer
Daizen Maeda anytime scorer

36 more not shown

Total fouls, Goals by 15-minute window

Empty not priced by this bookmaker

16:00

Liverpool v Fulham

Premier League, Regular Season - 4

No bet, prices out of sync

Liverpoolfair 1.54−2.4%

Drawfair 4.99−4.9%

Fulhamfair 6.70−17.9%

2.33 – 1.06 implied goals Model

Bet365 2.00 vs Pinnacle fair 1.99 on Under 3.5 cards: EV +0.6%. The two snapshots are too far apart to compare honestly. No bet. Prices imply 2.33 goals for Liverpool and 1.06 for Fulham.

Risk Single-match variance.

Bet: No bet — tracked: Under 3.5 cards @ 2.00

Prices out of sync

All markets, availability and referee

Availability Real

Liverpool — out: C. Bradley (Knee Injury), F. Chiesa (Back Injury), H. Ekitike (Achilles Tendon Injury), G. Leoni (Knee Injury); doubtful: C. Gakpo (Muscle Injury), J. Gomez (Muscle Injury)

Fulham — out: T. Cairney (Knee Injury)

Referee: not in feed.

Prices as of Bet365 11:52, Pinnacle 07:55 (Vienna). Bet365 1X2 margin 5.9%, Pinnacle 3.8% Model

Double chance

Bet365 Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Fair	EV
Liverpool or draw	1.18	−4.7%
Liverpool or Fulham	1.25	−5.6%
Fulham or draw	2.86	−8.4%

Asian handicap

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair
Fulham 0 (AH)	—	4.98 soft
Liverpool 0 (AH)	—	1.25 soft
Fulham +0.25 (AH)	—	3.93 soft
Fulham -0.25 (AH)	3.38	4.64 soft
Liverpool +0.25 (AH)	—	1.27 soft
Liverpool -0.25 (AH)	1.35	1.34 soft
Fulham +0.5 (AH)	—	3.67 soft
Fulham -0.5 (AH)	2.70	4.58 soft
Liverpool +0.5 (AH)	—	1.28 soft
Liverpool -0.5 (AH)	1.50	1.37 soft
Fulham +0.75 (AH)	—	3.62 soft
Fulham -0.75 (AH)	2.41	5.50 soft
Liverpool +0.75 (AH)	—	1.22 soft
Liverpool -0.75 (AH)	1.62	1.38 soft
Fulham -1 (AH)	2.10	—
Liverpool -1 (AH)	1.80	—
Fulham -1.25 (AH)	1.83	—
Liverpool -1.25 (AH)	2.09	—
Fulham -1.5 (AH)	1.65	—
Liverpool -1.5 (AH)	2.34	—
Fulham -1.75 (AH)	1.50	—
Liverpool -1.75 (AH)	2.75	—
Fulham -2 (AH)	1.34	—
Liverpool -2 (AH)	3.48	—
Fulham -2.25 (AH)	1.29	—
Liverpool -2.25 (AH)	3.87	—
Fulham -2.5 (AH)	—	—
Liverpool -2.5 (AH)	—	—
Fulham -2.75 (AH)	—	—
Liverpool -2.75 (AH)	—	—
Fulham -3 (AH)	—	—
Liverpool -3 (AH)	—	—
Fulham -3.25 (AH)	—	—
Liverpool -3.25 (AH)	—	—
Fulham -3.5 (AH)	—	—
Liverpool -3.5 (AH)	—	—

Goals over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 0.5 goals	—	1.02 soft	—
Under 0.5 goals	—	40.64 soft	—
Over 1.5 goals	—	1.16 soft	—
Under 1.5 goals	—	7.13 soft	—
Over 2.5 goals	1.47	1.51	−4.8%
Under 2.5 goals	2.74	2.95	−6.8%
Over 3.5 goals	2.18	2.28	−7.8%
Under 3.5 goals	1.73	1.78	−3.0%
Over 4.5 goals	—	3.98 soft	—
Under 4.5 goals	—	1.34 soft	—
Over 5.5 goals	—	8.08 soft	—
Under 5.5 goals	—	1.14 soft	—
Over 6.5 goals	—	21.74 soft	—
Under 6.5 goals	—	1.05 soft	—
Over 7.5 goals	—	73.77 soft	—
Under 7.5 goals	—	1.01 soft	—
Over 8.5 goals	—	—	—

Both teams to score

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
Both teams to score: Yes		1.67 soft
Both teams to score: No		2.50 soft

1st half winner

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
1st half: Liverpool to win	1.93	1.99	−1.8%
1st half: draw	2.81	2.94	−10.9%
1st half: Fulham to win	5.92	6.40	−14.0%

1st half over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
1st half: Over 0.5 goals	—	1.26 soft	—
1st half: Under 0.5 goals	—	4.90 soft	—
1st half: Over 1.5 goals	2.16	2.29	−8.5%
1st half: Under 1.5 goals	1.70	1.77	−5.8%
1st half: Over 2.5 goals	—	5.72 soft	—
1st half: Under 2.5 goals	—	1.21 soft	—
1st half: Over 3.5 goals	—	21.74 soft	—
1st half: Under 3.5 goals	—	1.05 soft	—

2nd half winner

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
2nd half: Liverpool to win		1.85 soft
2nd half: draw		3.42 soft
2nd half: Fulham to win		6.05 soft

2nd half over/under

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
2nd half: Over 0.5 goals		1.16 soft
2nd half: Under 0.5 goals		7.13 soft
2nd half: Over 1.5 goals		1.77 soft
2nd half: Under 1.5 goals		2.29 soft
2nd half: Over 2.5 goals		3.69 soft
2nd half: Under 2.5 goals		1.37 soft
2nd half: Over 3.5 goals		9.55 soft
2nd half: Under 3.5 goals		1.12 soft
2nd half: Over 4.5 goals		39.44 soft
2nd half: Under 4.5 goals		1.03 soft

Exact score

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Exact score 2:1	7.50	11.32	−20.5%
Exact score 2:0	8.00	12.23	−18.2%
Exact score 1:1	9.00	14.10	−29.1%
Exact score 1:0	9.50	15.04	−20.2%
Exact score 3:1	9.50	15.04	−20.2%
Exact score 3:0	10.00	16.00	−18.8%
Exact score 2:2	12.50	20.94	−28.4%
Exact score 1:2	16.00	28.18	−32.6%
Exact score 3:2	15.00	26.08	−19.5%
Exact score 4:0	14.00	24.00	−12.5%

32 more not shown

Corners over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Bet365	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 10.5 corners		1.93	2.01	−9.0%
Under 10.5 corners		1.91	1.99	−8.0%

Cards over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Bet365	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 3.5 cards		1.92	2.01	−14.0%
Under 3.5 cards		1.90	1.99	+0.6%

Anytime scorer

Bet365 Real
Selection	Bet365
Alexander Isak anytime scorer
Bradley Barcola anytime scorer
Cody Gakpo anytime scorer
Federico Chiesa anytime scorer
Jayden Danns anytime scorer
Florian Wirtz anytime scorer
Lewis Koumas anytime scorer
Dominik Szoboszlai anytime scorer
Rodrigo Muniz anytime scorer
Victor Munoz anytime scorer
Rio Ngumoha anytime scorer
Gonzalo Garcia anytime scorer

34 more not shown

Total fouls, Goals by 15-minute window

Empty not priced by this bookmaker

18:30

Tottenham v Everton

Premier League, Regular Season - 4

Published pick

Tottenhamfair 2.05−2.4%

Drawfair 3.93−3.4%

Evertonfair 3.88−9.8%

1.74 – 1.22 implied goals Model

Bet365 3.45 vs Pinnacle fair 2.54 on Everton +0.5 (AH): EV +35.9%. The gap clears the Value bar and Pinnacle's margin is tight enough to trust the reference. Prices imply 1.74 goals for Tottenham and 1.22 for Everton.

Risk A one-goal swing inside the handicap.

Bet: Everton +0.5 (AH) @ 3.45

All markets, availability and referee

Availability Real

Tottenham — out: D. Kulusevski (Knee Injury), M. Mudryk (Ankle Injury), W. Odobert (Knee Injury), Richarlison (Transfer negotiations), X. Simons (Knee Injury); doubtful: J. Maddison (Knock)

Everton — out: C. Norgaard (Injury)

Referee: not in feed.

Prices as of Bet365 11:52, Pinnacle 11:52 (Vienna). Bet365 1X2 margin 4.9%, Pinnacle 2.9% Model

Double chance

Bet365 Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Fair	EV
Tottenham or draw	1.35	−5.0%
Tottenham or Everton	1.34	−6.8%
Everton or draw	1.95	−7.8%

Asian handicap

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Everton 0 (AH)	2.78	2.92	−8.3%
Tottenham 0 (AH)	1.49	1.52	−4.6%
Everton +0.25 (AH)	3.24	2.67	+15.9%
Everton -0.25 (AH)	2.20	2.86	−26.7%
Tottenham +0.25 (AH)	1.38	1.54	−12.2%
Tottenham -0.25 (AH)	1.75	1.60	+6.4%
Everton +0.5 (AH)	3.70	2.54	+35.9%
Everton -0.5 (AH)	1.91	2.83	−34.8%
Tottenham +0.5 (AH)	1.31	1.54	−15.8%
Tottenham -0.5 (AH)	2.02	1.65	+21.2%
Everton +0.75 (AH)	—	2.55 soft	—
Everton -0.75 (AH)	1.68	3.02 soft	—
Tottenham +0.75 (AH)	—	1.50 soft	—
Tottenham -0.75 (AH)	2.32	1.65 soft	—
Everton +1 (AH)	—	2.59 soft	—
Everton -1 (AH)	1.46	3.58 soft	—
Tottenham +1 (AH)	—	1.39 soft	—
Tottenham -1 (AH)	2.87	1.63 soft	—
Everton +1.25 (AH)	—	2.44 soft	—
Everton -1.25 (AH)	1.37	3.22 soft	—
Tottenham +1.25 (AH)	—	1.45 soft	—
Tottenham -1.25 (AH)	3.27	1.69 soft	—
Everton -1.5 (AH)	1.31	—	—
Tottenham -1.5 (AH)	3.67	—	—
Everton -1.75 (AH)	—	—	—
Tottenham -1.75 (AH)	—	—	—
Everton -2 (AH)	—	—	—
Tottenham -2 (AH)	—	—	—
Everton -2.25 (AH)	—	—	—
Tottenham -2.25 (AH)	—	—	—

Goals over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 0.5 goals	—	1.05 soft	—
Under 0.5 goals	—	21.74 soft	—
Over 1.5 goals	1.28	1.31	−6.6%
Under 1.5 goals	3.83	4.27	+1.4%
Over 2.5 goals	1.72	1.76	−1.7%
Under 2.5 goals	2.24	2.32	−9.4%
Over 3.5 goals	2.78	2.95	−6.7%
Under 3.5 goals	1.48	1.51	−4.9%
Over 4.5 goals	—	6.16 soft	—
Under 4.5 goals	—	1.19 soft	—
Over 5.5 goals	—	15.07 soft	—
Under 5.5 goals	—	1.07 soft	—
Over 6.5 goals	—	40.64 soft	—
Under 6.5 goals	—	1.02 soft	—
Over 7.5 goals	—	—	—

Both teams to score

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
Both teams to score: Yes		1.71 soft
Both teams to score: No		2.41 soft

1st half winner

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
1st half: Tottenham to win	2.57	2.65	−5.6%
1st half: draw	2.44	2.51	−8.3%
1st half: Everton to win	4.27	4.47	−10.5%

1st half over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
1st half: Over 0.5 goals	1.34	1.37	−0.9%
1st half: Under 0.5 goals	3.35	3.69	−18.7%
1st half: Over 1.5 goals	2.60	2.77	−0.9%
1st half: Under 1.5 goals	1.52	1.56	−10.5%
1st half: Over 2.5 goals	—	9.55 soft	—
1st half: Under 2.5 goals	—	1.12 soft	—
1st half: Over 3.5 goals	—	72.04 soft	—
1st half: Under 3.5 goals	—	1.01 soft	—

2nd half winner

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
2nd half: Tottenham to win		2.52 soft
2nd half: draw		2.76 soft
2nd half: Everton to win		4.14 soft

2nd half over/under

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
2nd half: Over 0.5 goals		1.26 soft
2nd half: Under 0.5 goals		4.90 soft
2nd half: Over 1.5 goals		2.18 soft
2nd half: Under 1.5 goals		1.85 soft
2nd half: Over 2.5 goals		5.32 soft
2nd half: Under 2.5 goals		1.23 soft
2nd half: Over 3.5 goals		17.63 soft
2nd half: Under 3.5 goals		1.06 soft

Exact score

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Exact score 1:1	7.00	10.17	−26.2%
Exact score 2:1	8.00	11.92	−20.3%
Exact score 1:0	8.50	12.82	−22.0%
Exact score 2:0	9.50	14.63	−18.0%
Exact score 0:0	13.00	21.27	−38.9%
Exact score 1:2	11.00	17.43	−25.4%
Exact score 2:2	11.50	18.38	−18.4%
Exact score 0:1	12.00	19.33	−22.4%
Exact score 3:1	12.50	20.30	−16.2%
Exact score 3:0	15.00	25.22	−16.7%

29 more not shown

Corners over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Bet365	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 10.5 corners		1.91	1.98	−7.8%
Under 10.5 corners		1.94	2.02	−9.2%

Cards over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Bet365	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 4.5 cards		2.12	2.26	−11.6%
Under 4.5 cards		1.71	1.79	−3.4%

Anytime scorer

Bet365 Real
Selection	Bet365
Dominic Solanke anytime scorer
Omar Marmoush anytime scorer
Mykhailo Mudryk anytime scorer
Thierno Barry anytime scorer
Mohammed Kudus anytime scorer
Mathys Tel anytime scorer
James Maddison anytime scorer
Tyrique George anytime scorer
Braiden Graham anytime scorer
Luca Williams-Barnet anytime scorer
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall anytime scorer
Conor Gallagher anytime scorer

31 more not shown

Total fouls, Goals by 15-minute window

Empty not priced by this bookmaker

21:00

Sunderland v Arsenal

Premier League, Regular Season - 4

No bet, prices out of sync

Sunderlandfair 7.93−24.4%

Drawfair 4.16−8.5%

Arsenalfair 1.58+1.3%

0.67 – 1.78 implied goals Model

Bet365 1.62 vs Pinnacle fair 1.53 on Under 4.5 cards: EV +5.8%. The two snapshots are too far apart to compare honestly. No bet. Prices imply 0.67 goals for Sunderland and 1.78 for Arsenal.

Risk Single-match variance.

Bet: No bet — tracked: Under 4.5 cards @ 1.62

Prices out of sync

All markets, availability and referee

Availability Real

Sunderland — out: H. Diarra (Hamstring Injury), R. Mundle (Knee Injury)

Arsenal — out: W. Saliba (Back Injury); doubtful: C. Mosquera (Muscle Injury), J. Timber (Ankle Injury)

Referee: not in feed.

Prices as of Bet365 11:52, Pinnacle 07:55 (Vienna). Bet365 1X2 margin 5.5%, Pinnacle 3.7% Model

Double chance

Bet365 Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Fair	EV
Sunderland or draw	2.73	−12.7%
Sunderland or Arsenal	1.32	−5.1%
Arsenal or draw	1.14	−3.0%

Asian handicap

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Arsenal 0 (AH)	1.17	1.19	+1.1%
Sunderland 0 (AH)	5.45	6.36	−30.8%
Arsenal +0.25 (AH)	1.35	1.32 soft	—
Arsenal -0.25 (AH)	—	1.25 soft	—
Sunderland +0.25 (AH)	3.33	5.08 soft	—
Sunderland -0.25 (AH)	—	4.14 soft	—
Arsenal +0.5 (AH)	1.53	1.39 soft	—
Arsenal -0.5 (AH)	—	1.26 soft	—
Sunderland +0.5 (AH)	2.57	4.91 soft	—
Sunderland -0.5 (AH)	—	3.57 soft	—
Arsenal +0.75 (AH)	1.70	—	—
Sunderland +0.75 (AH)	2.25	—	—
Arsenal +1 (AH)	1.99	—	—
Sunderland +1 (AH)	1.92	—	—
Arsenal +1.25 (AH)	2.33	—	—
Sunderland +1.25 (AH)	1.65	—	—
Arsenal +1.5 (AH)	2.67	—	—
Sunderland +1.5 (AH)	1.50	—	—
Arsenal +1.75 (AH)	3.29	—	—
Sunderland +1.75 (AH)	1.35	—	—
Arsenal +2 (AH)	4.61	—	—
Sunderland +2 (AH)	1.21	—	—
Arsenal +2.25 (AH)	—	—	—
Sunderland +2.25 (AH)	—	—	—
Arsenal +2.5 (AH)	—	—	—
Sunderland +2.5 (AH)	—	—	—
Arsenal +2.75 (AH)	—	—	—
Sunderland +2.75 (AH)	—	—	—

Goals over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 0.5 goals	—	1.08 soft	—
Under 0.5 goals	—	13.12 soft	—
Over 1.5 goals	1.36	1.40	−2.7%
Under 1.5 goals	3.17	3.51	−8.9%
Over 2.5 goals	2.14	2.24	−6.1%
Under 2.5 goals	1.75	1.81	−4.3%
Over 3.5 goals	3.72	4.15	−9.6%
Under 3.5 goals	1.29	1.32	−2.9%
Over 4.5 goals	—	11.55 soft	—
Under 4.5 goals	—	1.09 soft	—
Over 5.5 goals	—	39.44 soft	—
Under 5.5 goals	—	1.03 soft	—
Over 6.5 goals	—	78.14 soft	—
Under 6.5 goals	—	1.01 soft	—

Both teams to score

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
Both teams to score: Yes		2.23 soft
Both teams to score: No		1.81 soft

1st half winner

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
1st half: Sunderland to win	7.32	7.97	−18.4%
1st half: draw	2.31	2.39	−8.1%
1st half: Arsenal to win	2.12	2.19	+0.5%

1st half over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
1st half: Over 0.5 goals	1.42	1.47	−5.0%
1st half: Under 0.5 goals	2.79	3.11	−11.6%
1st half: Over 1.5 goals	3.13	3.54	−15.2%
1st half: Under 1.5 goals	1.35	1.39	−2.5%
1st half: Over 2.5 goals	—	11.55 soft	—
1st half: Under 2.5 goals	—	1.09 soft	—
1st half: Over 3.5 goals	—	73.77 soft	—
1st half: Under 3.5 goals	—	1.01 soft	—

2nd half winner

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
2nd half: Sunderland to win		6.71 soft
2nd half: draw		2.66 soft
2nd half: Arsenal to win		2.11 soft

2nd half over/under

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
2nd half: Over 0.5 goals		1.29 soft
2nd half: Under 0.5 goals		4.47 soft
2nd half: Over 1.5 goals		2.41 soft
2nd half: Under 1.5 goals		1.71 soft
2nd half: Over 2.5 goals		6.16 soft
2nd half: Under 2.5 goals		1.19 soft
2nd half: Over 3.5 goals		21.74 soft
2nd half: Under 3.5 goals		1.05 soft

Exact score

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
Exact score 0:1		7.60 soft
Exact score 1:1		8.88 soft
Exact score 0:2		8.88 soft
Exact score 0:0		10.81 soft
Exact score 1:2		11.46 soft
Exact score 0:3		16.11 soft
Exact score 1:0		18.81 soft
Exact score 1:3		18.81 soft
Exact score 2:1		27.08 soft
Exact score 2:2		27.08 soft

24 more not shown

Corners over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Bet365	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 9.5 corners		2.03	2.14	−7.4%
Under 9.5 corners		1.80	1.88	−3.1%

Cards over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Bet365	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 4.5 cards		2.60	2.88	−23.6%
Under 4.5 cards		1.47	1.53	+5.8%

Anytime scorer

Bet365 Real
Selection	Bet365
Viktor Gyokeres anytime scorer
Kai Havertz anytime scorer
Bukayo Saka anytime scorer
Christos Tzolis anytime scorer
Mikel Merino anytime scorer
Max Dowman anytime scorer
Noni Madueke anytime scorer
Eberechi Eze anytime scorer
Martin Odegaard anytime scorer
Brian Brobbey anytime scorer
Wilson Isidor anytime scorer
Juan Angulo anytime scorer

36 more not shown

Total fouls, Goals by 15-minute window

Empty not priced by this bookmaker

La Liga3 matches

16:15

Osasuna v Espanyol

La Liga, Regular Season - 5

Published pick

Osasunafair 2.42−7.1%

Drawfair 3.22−3.7%

Espanyolfair 3.62−5.9%

1.28 – 1.01 implied goals Model

Bet365 4.25 vs Pinnacle fair 2.29 on Espanyol +0.75 (AH): EV +86.0%. The gap clears the Value bar and Pinnacle's margin is tight enough to trust the reference. Prices imply 1.28 goals for Osasuna and 1.01 for Espanyol.

Risk A one-goal swing inside the handicap.

Bet: Espanyol +0.75 (AH) @ 4.25

All markets, availability and referee

Availability Real

Osasuna — out: M. Gomez (Hamstring Injury), J. Herrando (Muscle Injury), A. Oroz (Muscle Injury), V. Rosier (Hamstring Injury)

Espanyol — out: K. Garcia (Hamstring Injury), A. Gorosabel (Injury), J. Puado (Knee Injury)

Referee: not in feed.

Prices as of Bet365 08:30, Pinnacle 08:30 (Vienna). Bet365 1X2 margin 6.1%, Pinnacle 3.3% Model

Double chance

Bet365 Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Fair	EV
Osasuna or draw	1.38	−6.0%
Osasuna or Espanyol	1.45	−6.2%
Espanyol or draw	1.70	−4.9%

Asian handicap

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Espanyol 0 (AH)	2.41	2.52	−5.5%
Osasuna 0 (AH)	1.62	1.66	−6.6%
Espanyol +0.25 (AH)	2.94	2.36	+20.8%
Espanyol -0.25 (AH)	1.91	2.47	−22.2%
Osasuna +0.25 (AH)	1.45	1.68	−16.7%
Osasuna -0.25 (AH)	2.00	1.74	+10.6%
Espanyol +0.5 (AH)	3.44	2.29	+44.3%
Espanyol -0.5 (AH)	1.65	2.45	−31.5%
Osasuna +0.5 (AH)	1.34	1.69	−21.8%
Osasuna -0.5 (AH)	2.36	1.78	+21.0%
Espanyol +0.75 (AH)	4.52	2.29	+86.0%
Osasuna +0.75 (AH)	1.23	1.65	−26.7%
Espanyol +1 (AH)	—	2.35 soft	—
Espanyol -1 (AH)	1.28	3.02 soft	—
Osasuna +1 (AH)	—	1.49 soft	—
Osasuna -1 (AH)	3.91	1.74 soft	—
Espanyol -1.25 (AH)	1.23	—	—
Osasuna -1.25 (AH)	4.45	—	—
Espanyol -1.5 (AH)	1.28	—	—
Osasuna -1.5 (AH)	3.93	—	—
Espanyol -1.75 (AH)	1.26	—	—
Osasuna -1.75 (AH)	3.96	—	—
Espanyol -2 (AH)	—	—	—
Osasuna -2 (AH)	—	—	—
Espanyol -2.25 (AH)	—	—	—
Osasuna -2.25 (AH)	—	—	—

Goals over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 0.5 goals	—	1.09 soft	—
Under 0.5 goals	—	11.55 soft	—
Over 1.5 goals	1.42	1.45	−3.7%
Under 1.5 goals	2.98	3.21	−6.4%
Over 2.5 goals	2.35	2.46	−6.5%
Under 2.5 goals	1.64	1.68	−3.8%
Over 3.5 goals	—	5.06 soft	—
Under 3.5 goals	—	1.25 soft	—
Over 4.5 goals	—	13.12 soft	—
Under 4.5 goals	—	1.08 soft	—
Over 5.5 goals	—	40.64 soft	—
Under 5.5 goals	—	1.02 soft	—
Over 6.5 goals	—	—	—

Both teams to score

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
Both teams to score: Yes		2.09 soft
Both teams to score: No		1.92 soft

1st half winner

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
1st half: Osasuna to win	3.04	3.17	−9.2%
1st half: draw	2.12	2.18	−6.0%
1st half: Espanyol to win	4.19	4.42	−9.6%

1st half over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
1st half: Over 0.5 goals	1.49	1.53	−6.2%
1st half: Under 0.5 goals	2.67	2.87	−8.7%
1st half: Over 1.5 goals	3.40	3.82	−14.8%
1st half: Under 1.5 goals	1.32	1.35	−1.8%
1st half: Over 2.5 goals	—	15.07 soft	—
1st half: Under 2.5 goals	—	1.07 soft	—
1st half: Over 3.5 goals	—	76.09 soft	—
1st half: Under 3.5 goals	—	1.01 soft	—

2nd half winner

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
2nd half: Osasuna to win		2.87 soft
2nd half: draw		2.50 soft
2nd half: Espanyol to win		3.98 soft

2nd half over/under

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
2nd half: Over 0.5 goals		1.32 soft
2nd half: Under 0.5 goals		4.11 soft
2nd half: Over 1.5 goals		2.64 soft
2nd half: Under 1.5 goals		1.61 soft
2nd half: Over 2.5 goals		7.13 soft
2nd half: Under 2.5 goals		1.16 soft
2nd half: Over 3.5 goals		28.00 soft
2nd half: Under 3.5 goals		1.04 soft

Exact score

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Exact score 1:1	6.00	8.42	−28.7%
Exact score 1:0	6.50	9.26	−24.4%
Exact score 0:0	8.50	12.74	−37.2%
Exact score 0:1	9.00	13.63	−34.0%
Exact score 2:0	9.00	13.63	−30.3%
Exact score 2:1	8.50	12.74	−25.4%
Exact score 1:2	11.00	17.31	−24.9%
Exact score 2:2	13.00	21.11	−28.9%
Exact score 0:2	14.00	23.05	−26.3%
Exact score 3:1	16.00	27.02	−29.7%

26 more not shown

Corners over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 8.5 corners	1.77	1.85	−6.5%
Under 8.5 corners	2.06	2.18	−8.2%
Over 9 corners	2.02	2.11	−5.2%
Under 9 corners	1.83	1.90	−5.3%

Cards over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 4.5 cards	1.52	1.59	+2.1%
Under 4.5 cards	2.47	2.71	−18.7%
Over 5.5 cards	2.08	2.20	−18.1%
Under 5.5 cards	1.76	1.84	+4.0%

Anytime scorer

Bet365 Real
Selection	Bet365
Ante Budimir anytime scorer
Raul Garcia anytime scorer
Asier Bonel anytime scorer
Javi Puado anytime scorer
Garcia Kike anytime scorer
Javier Hernandez anytime scorer
Jonathan Dubasin anytime scorer
Romain Del Castillo anytime scorer
Roberto Fernandez anytime scorer
Marcos Fernandez anytime scorer
Pere Milla anytime scorer
Alex Calatrava anytime scorer

38 more not shown

Total fouls, Goals by 15-minute window

Empty not priced by this bookmaker

18:30

Athletic Club v Elche

La Liga, Regular Season - 5

Published pick

Athletic Clubfair 1.45−1.7%

Drawfair 5.24−9.3%

Elchefair 8.54−12.2%

2.19 – 0.79 implied goals Model

Bet365 6.25 vs Pinnacle fair 4.51 on Elche +0.25 (AH): EV +38.4%. The gap clears the Value bar and Pinnacle's margin is tight enough to trust the reference. Prices imply 2.19 goals for Athletic Club and 0.79 for Elche.

Risk A one-goal swing inside the handicap.

Bet: Elche +0.25 (AH) @ 6.25

All markets, availability and referee

Availability Real

Athletic Club — out: P. Canales (Muscle Injury), U. Egiluz (Knee Injury), G. Guruzeta (Hamstring Injury), D. Vivian (Hamstring Injury)

Elche — out: Y. Santiago (Knee Injury)

Referee: not in feed.

Prices as of Bet365 08:30, Pinnacle 08:30 (Vienna). Bet365 1X2 margin 4.8%, Pinnacle 4.0% Model

Double chance

Bet365 Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Fair	EV
Athletic Club or draw	1.13	−2.9%
Athletic Club or Elche	1.24	−4.5%
Elche or draw	3.25	−15.3%

Asian handicap

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Elche 0 (AH)	5.19	5.87	−2.0%
Athletic Club 0 (AH)	1.19	1.21	−5.4%
Elche +0.25 (AH)	4.42	4.51	+38.4%
Elche -0.25 (AH)	3.93	4.87	−27.1%
Athletic Club +0.25 (AH)	1.22	1.26	−11.0%
Athletic Club -0.25 (AH)	1.28	1.28	−1.1%
Elche +0.5 (AH)	—	4.38 soft	—
Elche -0.5 (AH)	3.03	6.42 soft	—
Athletic Club +0.5 (AH)	—	1.18 soft	—
Athletic Club -0.5 (AH)	1.41	1.30 soft	—
Elche +0.75 (AH)	—	3.99 soft	—
Elche -0.75 (AH)	2.69	5.92 soft	—
Athletic Club +0.75 (AH)	—	1.20 soft	—
Athletic Club -0.75 (AH)	1.52	1.33 soft	—
Elche -1 (AH)	2.32	—	—
Athletic Club -1 (AH)	1.66	—	—
Elche -1.25 (AH)	1.96	—	—
Athletic Club -1.25 (AH)	1.94	—	—
Elche -1.5 (AH)	1.74	—	—
Athletic Club -1.5 (AH)	2.19	—	—
Elche -1.75 (AH)	1.56	—	—
Athletic Club -1.75 (AH)	2.56	—	—
Elche -2 (AH)	1.37	—	—
Athletic Club -2 (AH)	3.24	—	—
Elche -2.25 (AH)	1.31	—	—
Athletic Club -2.25 (AH)	3.65	—	—
Elche -2.5 (AH)	—	—	—
Athletic Club -2.5 (AH)	—	—	—
Elche -2.75 (AH)	—	—	—
Athletic Club -2.75 (AH)	—	—	—
Elche -3 (AH)	—	—	—
Athletic Club -3 (AH)	—	—	—
Elche -3.25 (AH)	—	—	—
Athletic Club -3.25 (AH)	—	—	—

Goals over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 0.5 goals	—	1.05 soft	—
Under 0.5 goals	—	21.74 soft	—
Over 1.5 goals	1.27	1.29	−7.3%
Under 1.5 goals	3.95	4.40	+2.3%
Over 2.5 goals	1.69	1.74	−4.2%
Under 2.5 goals	2.24	2.35	−6.3%
Over 3.5 goals	2.72	2.90	−9.5%
Under 3.5 goals	1.49	1.53	−1.8%
Over 4.5 goals	—	5.41 soft	—
Under 4.5 goals	—	1.23 soft	—
Over 5.5 goals	—	15.07 soft	—
Under 5.5 goals	—	1.07 soft	—
Over 6.5 goals	—	40.64 soft	—
Under 6.5 goals	—	1.02 soft	—
Over 7.5 goals	—	—	—

Both teams to score

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
Both teams to score: Yes		2.09 soft
Both teams to score: No		1.92 soft

1st half winner

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
1st half: Athletic Club to win	1.88	1.93	−1.2%
1st half: draw	2.66	2.78	−10.0%
1st half: Elche to win	7.48	8.17	−14.3%

1st half over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
1st half: Over 0.5 goals	1.33	1.36	−4.8%
1st half: Under 0.5 goals	3.35	3.74	−9.1%
1st half: Over 1.5 goals	2.52	2.71	−7.9%
1st half: Under 1.5 goals	1.53	1.58	−5.3%
1st half: Over 2.5 goals	—	8.08 soft	—
1st half: Under 2.5 goals	—	1.14 soft	—
1st half: Over 3.5 goals	—	39.44 soft	—
1st half: Under 3.5 goals	—	1.03 soft	—

2nd half winner

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
2nd half: Athletic Club to win		1.84 soft
2nd half: draw		3.10 soft
2nd half: Elche to win		7.40 soft

2nd half over/under

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
2nd half: Over 0.5 goals		1.23 soft
2nd half: Under 0.5 goals		5.32 soft
2nd half: Over 1.5 goals		2.07 soft
2nd half: Under 1.5 goals		1.94 soft
2nd half: Over 2.5 goals		4.90 soft
2nd half: Under 2.5 goals		1.26 soft
2nd half: Over 3.5 goals		15.07 soft
2nd half: Under 3.5 goals		1.07 soft
2nd half: Over 4.5 goals		73.77 soft
2nd half: Under 4.5 goals		1.01 soft

Exact score

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
Exact score 2:0		8.79 soft
Exact score 1:0		9.50 soft
Exact score 2:1		10.92 soft
Exact score 1:1		11.64 soft
Exact score 3:0		12.37 soft
Exact score 3:1		14.57 soft
Exact score 0:0		17.56 soft
Exact score 4:0		23.69 soft
Exact score 4:1		26.82 soft
Exact score 2:2		26.82 soft

30 more not shown

Corners over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Bet365	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 9.5 corners		1.93	2.01	−9.0%
Under 9.5 corners		1.91	1.99	−8.0%

Cards over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Bet365	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 4.5 cards		2.02	2.12	−13.9%
Under 4.5 cards		1.81	1.89	−3.1%

Anytime scorer

Bet365 Real
Selection	Bet365
Gorka Guruzeta anytime scorer
Robert Navarro anytime scorer
Inaki Williams anytime scorer
Oihan Sancet anytime scorer
Nico Williams anytime scorer
Nico Serrano anytime scorer
Maroan Sannadi anytime scorer
Alvaro Djalo anytime scorer
Alex Berenguer anytime scorer
Alejandro Rego anytime scorer
Peio Canales anytime scorer
Fernando Nino anytime scorer

49 more not shown

Total fouls, Goals by 15-minute window

Empty not priced by this bookmaker

21:00

Real Madrid v Rayo Vallecano

La Liga, Regular Season - 5

No bet, lean tracked

Real Madridfair 1.15−2.7%

Drawfair 11.27−24.6%

Rayo Vallecanofair 23.40−27.4%

3.26 – 0.64 implied goals Model

Bet365 1.62 vs Pinnacle fair 1.50 on Under 4.5 cards: EV +7.9%. Flat to slightly positive but under the Value bar: tracked, not sold. Prices imply 3.26 goals for Real Madrid and 0.64 for Rayo Vallecano.

Risk Single-match variance.

Bet: No bet — tracked: Under 4.5 cards @ 1.62

All markets, availability and referee

Availability Real

Real Madrid — out: Eder Militao (Hamstring Injury), F. Mendy (Hip Injury), Rodrygo (Knee Injury)

Rayo Vallecano — out: A. Batalla (Broken calfbone), Luiz Felipe (Hamstring Injury), R. Nteka (Muscle Injury), I. Palazon (Muscle Injury), F. Perez (Red Card), J. Vertrouwd (Muscle Injury), J. de Frutos (Red Card); doubtful: I. Balliu (Ankle Injury), M. Kumbulla (Muscle Injury)

Referee: not in feed.

Prices as of Bet365 12:27, Pinnacle 12:27 (Vienna). Bet365 1X2 margin 6.9%, Pinnacle 3.6% Model

Double chance

Bet365 Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Fair	EV
Real Madrid or draw	1.04	−2.4%
Real Madrid or Rayo Vallecano	1.10	−1.6%
Rayo Vallecano or draw	7.61	−21.1%

Asian handicap

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real
Selection	Bet365	Pinnacle
Rayo Vallecano -0.25 (AH)		—
Real Madrid -0.25 (AH)		—
Rayo Vallecano -0.5 (AH)		—
Real Madrid -0.5 (AH)		—
Rayo Vallecano -0.75 (AH)		—
Real Madrid -0.75 (AH)		—
Rayo Vallecano -1 (AH)		—
Real Madrid -1 (AH)		—
Rayo Vallecano -1.25 (AH)		3.63
Real Madrid -1.25 (AH)		1.28
Rayo Vallecano -1.5 (AH)		2.99
Real Madrid -1.5 (AH)		1.39
Rayo Vallecano -1.75 (AH)		2.68
Real Madrid -1.75 (AH)		1.47
Rayo Vallecano -2 (AH)		2.39
Real Madrid -2 (AH)		1.60
Rayo Vallecano -2.25 (AH)		2.05
Real Madrid -2.25 (AH)		1.83
Rayo Vallecano -2.5 (AH)		1.85
Real Madrid -2.5 (AH)		2.06
Rayo Vallecano -2.75 (AH)		1.66
Real Madrid -2.75 (AH)		2.32
Rayo Vallecano -3 (AH)		1.47
Real Madrid -3 (AH)		2.74
Rayo Vallecano -3.25 (AH)		1.39
Real Madrid -3.25 (AH)		3.02
Rayo Vallecano -3.5 (AH)		1.33
Real Madrid -3.5 (AH)		3.33
Rayo Vallecano -3.75 (AH)		—
Real Madrid -3.75 (AH)		—
Rayo Vallecano -4 (AH)		—
Real Madrid -4 (AH)		—
Rayo Vallecano -4.25 (AH)		—
Real Madrid -4.25 (AH)		—
Rayo Vallecano -4.5 (AH)		—
Real Madrid -4.5 (AH)		—

Goals over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 0.5 goals	—	1.01 soft	—
Under 0.5 goals	—	76.09 soft	—
Over 1.5 goals	—	1.09 soft	—
Under 1.5 goals	—	11.55 soft	—
Over 2.5 goals	1.29	1.34	−4.3%
Under 2.5 goals	3.34	3.96	−5.4%
Over 3.5 goals	1.68	1.73	−0.2%
Under 3.5 goals	2.25	2.36	−11.1%
Over 4.5 goals	2.56	2.79	−6.2%
Under 4.5 goals	1.50	1.56	−3.7%
Over 5.5 goals	—	5.06 soft	—
Under 5.5 goals	—	1.25 soft	—
Over 6.5 goals	—	11.55 soft	—
Under 6.5 goals	—	1.09 soft	—
Over 7.5 goals	—	28.00 soft	—
Under 7.5 goals	—	1.04 soft	—
Over 8.5 goals	—	76.09 soft	—
Under 8.5 goals	—	1.01 soft	—
Over 9.5 goals	—	—	—

Both teams to score

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
Both teams to score: Yes		2.09 soft
Both teams to score: No		1.92 soft

1st half winner

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
1st half: Real Madrid to win	1.45	1.48	−5.4%
1st half: draw	3.73	4.01	−12.8%
1st half: Rayo Vallecano to win	11.61	13.30	−9.8%

1st half over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
1st half: Over 0.5 goals	—	1.16 soft	—
1st half: Under 0.5 goals	—	7.13 soft	—
1st half: Over 1.5 goals	1.82	1.89	−8.5%
1st half: Under 1.5 goals	2.03	2.12	−5.8%
1st half: Over 2.5 goals	—	3.93 soft	—
1st half: Under 2.5 goals	—	1.34 soft	—
1st half: Over 3.5 goals	—	11.55 soft	—
1st half: Under 3.5 goals	—	1.09 soft	—
1st half: Over 4.5 goals	—	40.64 soft	—
1st half: Under 4.5 goals	—	1.02 soft	—

2nd half winner

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
2nd half: Real Madrid to win		1.36 soft
2nd half: draw		4.99 soft
2nd half: Rayo Vallecano to win		16.13 soft

2nd half over/under

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
2nd half: Over 0.5 goals		1.09 soft
2nd half: Under 0.5 goals		11.55 soft
2nd half: Over 1.5 goals		1.51 soft
2nd half: Under 1.5 goals		2.96 soft
2nd half: Over 2.5 goals		2.76 soft
2nd half: Under 2.5 goals		1.57 soft
2nd half: Over 3.5 goals		6.16 soft
2nd half: Under 3.5 goals		1.19 soft
2nd half: Over 4.5 goals		17.63 soft
2nd half: Under 4.5 goals		1.06 soft
2nd half: Over 5.5 goals		76.09 soft
2nd half: Under 5.5 goals		1.01 soft

Exact score

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Exact score 3:0	7.00	10.42	−28.0%
Exact score 2:0	7.50	11.32	−24.9%
Exact score 4:0	8.00	12.24	−22.4%
Exact score 2:1	11.00	17.96	−38.7%
Exact score 3:1	9.50	15.05	−26.9%
Exact score 1:0	11.00	17.96	−27.6%
Exact score 4:1	11.00	17.96	−27.6%
Exact score 5:0	11.50	18.94	−31.4%
Exact score 1:1	15.00	26.09	−34.8%
Exact score 5:1	16.00	28.20	−32.6%

32 more not shown

Corners over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 9.5 corners	1.62	1.72	+0.8%
Under 9.5 corners	2.18	2.40	−16.5%
Over 10 corners	1.83	1.91	+5.8%
Under 10 corners	2.00	2.10	−15.2%
Over 10.5 corners	2.01	2.17	−12.2%
Under 10.5 corners	1.74	1.85	−2.8%

Cards over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 3.5 cards	1.84	1.92	−6.5%
Under 3.5 cards	1.98	2.08	−8.3%
Over 4.5 cards	2.68	3.00	−26.6%
Under 4.5 cards	1.44	1.50	+7.9%

Anytime scorer

Bet365 Real
Selection	Bet365
Kylian Mbappe anytime scorer
Carlos Espi anytime scorer
Vinicius Jr. anytime scorer
Endrick anytime scorer
Yan Diomande anytime scorer
Alexis Ciria anytime scorer
Jude Bellingham anytime scorer
Rodrygo anytime scorer
Arda Guler anytime scorer
Brahim Diaz anytime scorer
Thiago Pitarch anytime scorer
Denzel Dumfries anytime scorer

48 more not shown

Total fouls, Goals by 15-minute window

Empty not priced by this bookmaker

Eredivisie1 match

16:30

Twente v ADO Den Haag

Eredivisie, Regular Season - 6

No bet, tracked

Twentefair 1.27−1.6%

Drawfair 7.93−18.1%

ADO Den Haagfair 11.54−17.7%

2.99 – 0.93 implied goals Model

Bet365 1.62 vs Pinnacle fair 1.62 on 1st half: Twente to win: EV −0.2%. Bet365 sits under the sharp fair price on every market checked. No bet. Prices imply 2.99 goals for Twente and 0.93 for ADO Den Haag.

Risk A draw, the result that beats most single-side bets.

Bet: No bet — tracked: 1st half: Twente to win @ 1.62

All markets, availability and referee

Availability Real

Twente — out: K. Hlynsson (Inactive), S. Lemkin (Injury)

ADO Den Haag — out: D. Barany (Knee Injury), C. Peupion (Knee Injury); doubtful: M. Jimenez (Injury)

Referee: J. van der Laan Real

Prices as of Bet365 11:33, Pinnacle 11:33 (Vienna). Bet365 1X2 margin 5.9%, Pinnacle 4.7% Model

Double chance

Bet365 Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Fair	EV
Twente or draw	1.09	−3.2%
Twente or ADO Den Haag	1.14	−3.9%
ADO Den Haag or draw	4.70	−20.2%

Asian handicap

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real
Selection	Bet365	Pinnacle
ADO Den Haag -0.25 (AH)		—
Twente -0.25 (AH)		—
ADO Den Haag -0.5 (AH)		—
Twente -0.5 (AH)		—
ADO Den Haag -0.75 (AH)		3.76
Twente -0.75 (AH)		1.28
ADO Den Haag -1 (AH)		3.36
Twente -1 (AH)		1.33
ADO Den Haag -1.25 (AH)		2.64
Twente -1.25 (AH)		1.50
ADO Den Haag -1.5 (AH)		2.27
Twente -1.5 (AH)		1.68
ADO Den Haag -1.75 (AH)		2.06
Twente -1.75 (AH)		1.84
ADO Den Haag -2 (AH)		1.81
Twente -2 (AH)		2.06
ADO Den Haag -2.25 (AH)		1.63
Twente -2.25 (AH)		2.30
ADO Den Haag -2.5 (AH)		1.52
Twente -2.5 (AH)		2.55
ADO Den Haag -2.75 (AH)		1.40
Twente -2.75 (AH)		3.02
ADO Den Haag -3 (AH)		1.27
Twente -3 (AH)		3.81
ADO Den Haag -3.25 (AH)		—
Twente -3.25 (AH)		—
ADO Den Haag -3.5 (AH)		—
Twente -3.5 (AH)		—
ADO Den Haag -3.75 (AH)		—
Twente -3.75 (AH)		—
ADO Den Haag -4 (AH)		—
Twente -4 (AH)		—

Goals over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 0.5 goals	—	1.01 soft	—
Under 0.5 goals	—	78.14 soft	—
Over 1.5 goals	1.11	1.12	−4.0%
Under 1.5 goals	6.96	8.98	−10.9%
Over 2.5 goals	1.30	1.33	−2.6%
Under 2.5 goals	3.51	3.98	−12.2%
Over 3.5 goals	1.81	1.88	−4.3%
Under 3.5 goals	2.04	2.14	−10.6%
Over 4.5 goals	2.87	3.15	−12.7%
Under 4.5 goals	1.42	1.47	−4.4%
Over 5.5 goals	5.06	6.18	−27.2%
Under 5.5 goals	1.17	1.19	−1.1%
Over 6.5 goals	—	15.07 soft	—
Under 6.5 goals	—	1.07 soft	—
Over 7.5 goals	—	40.64 soft	—
Under 7.5 goals	—	1.02 soft	—
Over 8.5 goals	—	—	—

Both teams to score

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
Both teams to score: Yes		1.77 soft
Both teams to score: No		2.29 soft

1st half winner

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
1st half: Twente to win	1.58	1.62	−0.2%
1st half: draw	3.33	3.57	−13.2%
1st half: ADO Den Haag to win	8.51	9.64	−17.0%

1st half over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
1st half: Over 0.5 goals	—	1.21 soft	—
1st half: Under 0.5 goals	—	5.72 soft	—
1st half: Over 1.5 goals	1.89	1.98	−7.5%
1st half: Under 1.5 goals	1.93	2.02	−9.5%
1st half: Over 2.5 goals	—	4.47 soft	—
1st half: Under 2.5 goals	—	1.29 soft	—
1st half: Over 3.5 goals	—	13.12 soft	—
1st half: Under 3.5 goals	—	1.08 soft	—
1st half: Over 4.5 goals	—	72.04 soft	—
1st half: Under 4.5 goals	—	1.01 soft	—

2nd half winner

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
2nd half: Twente to win		1.52 soft
2nd half: draw		4.23 soft
2nd half: ADO Den Haag to win		9.40 soft

2nd half over/under

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
2nd half: Over 0.5 goals		1.12 soft
2nd half: Under 0.5 goals		9.55 soft
2nd half: Over 1.5 goals		1.61 soft
2nd half: Under 1.5 goals		2.64 soft
2nd half: Over 2.5 goals		2.96 soft
2nd half: Under 2.5 goals		1.51 soft
2nd half: Over 3.5 goals		7.13 soft
2nd half: Under 3.5 goals		1.16 soft
2nd half: Over 4.5 goals		21.74 soft
2nd half: Under 4.5 goals		1.05 soft
2nd half: Over 5.5 goals		76.09 soft
2nd half: Under 5.5 goals		1.01 soft

Exact score

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
Exact score 2:0		11.66 soft
Exact score 2:1		12.39 soft
Exact score 3:0		12.39 soft
Exact score 3:1		13.12 soft
Exact score 1:0		16.08 soft
Exact score 4:0		17.59 soft
Exact score 4:1		17.59 soft
Exact score 1:1		17.59 soft
Exact score 2:2		26.88 soft
Exact score 3:2		30.06 soft

32 more not shown

Corners over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 10 corners	1.81	1.90	−4.3%
Under 10 corners	1.99	2.11	−6.1%
Over 10.5 corners	2.03	2.18	−8.1%
Under 10.5 corners	1.75	1.85	−6.5%

Cards over/under

Empty not priced by this bookmaker

Anytime scorer

Bet365 Real
Selection	Bet365
Sam Lammers anytime scorer
Wout Weghorst anytime scorer
Lucas Vennegoor of Hesselink anytime scorer
Marko Pjaca anytime scorer
Kristian Hlynsson anytime scorer
Naci Unuvar anytime scorer
Filip Thorvaldsen anytime scorer
Younes Taha anytime scorer
Sayfallah Ltaief anytime scorer
Arno Verschueren anytime scorer
Taylor Booth anytime scorer
Daan Rots anytime scorer

43 more not shown

Total fouls, Goals by 15-minute window

Empty not priced by this bookmaker

Ligue 15 matches

17:15

Strasbourg v Monaco

Ligue 1, Regular Season - 4

Published pick

Strasbourgfair 3.48−2.3%

Drawfair 4.03−3.3%

Monacofair 2.15−7.1%

1.40 – 1.82 implied goals Model

Bet365 4.10 vs Pinnacle fair 2.40 on Strasbourg -0.75 (AH): EV +71.0%. The gap clears the Value bar and Pinnacle's margin is tight enough to trust the reference. Prices imply 1.40 goals for Strasbourg and 1.82 for Monaco.

Risk A one-goal swing inside the handicap.

Bet: Strasbourg -0.75 (AH) @ 4.10

All markets, availability and referee

Availability Real

Strasbourg — out: M. Godo (Muscle Injury), J. Panichelli (Knee Injury)

Monaco — out: F. Balogun (Injury), M. Coulibaly (Muscle Injury), A. Fati (Calf Injury), T. Minamino (Inactive), J. Teze (Injury)

Referee: Eric Wattellier Real

Prices as of Bet365 11:35, Pinnacle 11:35 (Vienna). Bet365 1X2 margin 5.1%, Pinnacle 2.8% Model

Double chance

Bet365 Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Fair	EV
Strasbourg or draw	1.87	−9.0%
Strasbourg or Monaco	1.33	−6.0%
Monaco or draw	1.40	−3.1%

Asian handicap

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Monaco 0 (AH)	1.58	1.61	−6.7%
Strasbourg 0 (AH)	2.55	2.64	−5.5%
Monaco +0.25 (AH)	1.85	1.68	+4.4%
Monaco -0.25 (AH)	1.45	1.62	−13.8%
Strasbourg +0.25 (AH)	2.08	2.60	−21.2%
Strasbourg -0.25 (AH)	2.95	2.48	+14.9%
Monaco +0.5 (AH)	2.11	1.72	+19.5%
Monaco -0.5 (AH)	1.36	1.63	−19.0%
Strasbourg +0.5 (AH)	1.82	2.59	−30.5%
Strasbourg -0.5 (AH)	3.35	2.40	+37.7%
Monaco +0.75 (AH)	2.43	1.72	+31.2%
Monaco -0.75 (AH)	1.26	1.60	−23.1%
Strasbourg +0.75 (AH)	1.62	2.67	−39.3%
Strasbourg -0.75 (AH)	4.22	2.40	+71.0%
Monaco +1 (AH)	3.00	1.68 soft	—
Monaco -1 (AH)	—	1.48 soft	—
Strasbourg +1 (AH)	1.43	3.08 soft	—
Strasbourg -1 (AH)	—	2.48 soft	—
Monaco +1.25 (AH)	3.39	1.72 soft	—
Monaco -1.25 (AH)	—	1.51 soft	—
Strasbourg +1.25 (AH)	1.36	2.97 soft	—
Strasbourg -1.25 (AH)	—	2.40 soft	—
Monaco +1.5 (AH)	—	1.74 soft	—
Monaco -1.5 (AH)	—	1.49 soft	—
Strasbourg +1.5 (AH)	—	3.02 soft	—
Strasbourg -1.5 (AH)	—	2.35 soft	—
Monaco +1.75 (AH)	—	—	—
Strasbourg +1.75 (AH)	—	—	—
Monaco +2 (AH)	—	—	—
Strasbourg +2 (AH)	—	—	—
Monaco +2.25 (AH)	—	—	—
Strasbourg +2.25 (AH)	—	—	—
Monaco +2.5 (AH)	—	—	—
Strasbourg +2.5 (AH)	—	—	—

Goals over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 0.5 goals	—	1.04 soft	—
Under 0.5 goals	—	28.00 soft	—
Over 1.5 goals	—	1.19 soft	—
Under 1.5 goals	—	6.16 soft	—
Over 2.5 goals	1.56	1.60	−4.2%
Under 2.5 goals	2.55	2.68	−6.6%
Over 3.5 goals	2.37	2.47	−6.9%
Under 3.5 goals	1.64	1.68	−3.6%
Over 4.5 goals	—	4.59 soft	—
Under 4.5 goals	—	1.28 soft	—
Over 5.5 goals	—	9.55 soft	—
Under 5.5 goals	—	1.12 soft	—
Over 6.5 goals	—	28.00 soft	—
Under 6.5 goals	—	1.04 soft	—
Over 7.5 goals	—	76.09 soft	—
Under 7.5 goals	—	1.01 soft	—
Over 8.5 goals	—	—	—

Both teams to score

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
Both teams to score: Yes		1.57 soft
Both teams to score: No		2.76 soft

1st half winner

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
1st half: Strasbourg to win	3.79	3.95	−8.8%
1st half: draw	2.60	2.68	−6.7%
1st half: Monaco to win	2.60	2.68	−6.7%

1st half over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
1st half: Over 0.5 goals	—	1.29 soft	—
1st half: Under 0.5 goals	—	4.47 soft	—
1st half: Over 1.5 goals	2.26	2.39	−5.9%
1st half: Under 1.5 goals	1.66	1.72	−8.7%
1st half: Over 2.5 goals	—	7.13 soft	—
1st half: Under 2.5 goals	—	1.16 soft	—
1st half: Over 3.5 goals	—	28.00 soft	—
1st half: Under 3.5 goals	—	1.04 soft	—

2nd half winner

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
2nd half: Strasbourg to win		3.48 soft
2nd half: draw		3.05 soft
2nd half: Monaco to win		2.60 soft

2nd half over/under

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
2nd half: Over 0.5 goals		1.19 soft
2nd half: Under 0.5 goals		6.16 soft
2nd half: Over 1.5 goals		1.85 soft
2nd half: Under 1.5 goals		2.18 soft
2nd half: Over 2.5 goals		3.93 soft
2nd half: Under 2.5 goals		1.34 soft
2nd half: Over 3.5 goals		11.55 soft
2nd half: Under 3.5 goals		1.09 soft
2nd half: Over 4.5 goals		40.64 soft
2nd half: Under 4.5 goals		1.02 soft

Exact score

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
Exact score 1:1		9.42 soft
Exact score 1:2		11.54 soft
Exact score 2:2		14.43 soft
Exact score 0:1		14.43 soft
Exact score 2:1		15.90 soft
Exact score 0:2		17.38 soft
Exact score 1:0		20.38 soft
Exact score 1:3		20.38 soft
Exact score 0:0		23.42 soft
Exact score 2:0		26.51 soft

31 more not shown

Corners over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 9 corners	1.72	1.80	−1.4%
Under 9 corners	2.10	2.24	−9.9%
Over 9.5 corners	1.97	2.06	−3.1%
Under 9.5 corners	1.86	1.94	−10.8%

Cards over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Bet365	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 3.5 cards		2.15	2.27	−15.9%
Under 3.5 cards		1.72	1.79	+0.7%

Anytime scorer

Bet365 Real
Selection	Bet365
Matthis Abline anytime scorer
Paris Brunner anytime scorer
Oumar Konate anytime scorer
Folarin Balogun anytime scorer
Joaquin Panichelli anytime scorer
Mika Biereth anytime scorer
Deivid Washington anytime scorer
Jacobo Ortega anytime scorer
Ansu Fati anytime scorer
Milos Lukovic anytime scorer
Ghianny Kodia anytime scorer
Conrad Harder anytime scorer

52 more not shown

Total fouls, Goals by 15-minute window

Empty not priced by this bookmaker

20:45

Auxerre v Nice

Ligue 1, Regular Season - 4

No bet, prices out of sync

Auxerrefair 2.94−10.8%

Drawfair 3.56−7.3%

Nicefair 2.64+4.1%

1.28 – 1.36 implied goals Model

Bet365 3.30 vs Pinnacle fair 1.93 on Nice +0.75 (AH): EV +70.9%. The two snapshots are too far apart to compare honestly. No bet. Prices imply 1.28 goals for Auxerre and 1.36 for Nice.

Risk A one-goal swing inside the handicap.

Bet: No bet — tracked: Nice +0.75 (AH) @ 3.30

Prices out of sync

All markets, availability and referee

Availability Real

Auxerre — out: A. Diousse (Knee Injury), S. Fofana (Groin Injury), B. Okoh (Knee Injury), M. Senaya (Injury), T. Siwe (Muscle Injury)

Nice — out: L. Abergel (Knee Injury), M. Bombito (Leg Injury), A. Mendy (Knee Injury), M. Sanson (Surgery)

Referee: Francois Letexier Real

Prices as of Bet365 07:38, Pinnacle 11:35 (Vienna). Bet365 1X2 margin 4.8%, Pinnacle 2.7% Model

Double chance

Bet365 Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Fair	EV
Auxerre or draw	1.61	−13.0%
Auxerre or Nice	1.39	−4.4%
Nice or draw	1.52	−5.0%

Asian handicap

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Nice 0 (AH)	1.86	1.90	+4.5%
Auxerre 0 (AH)	2.07	2.12	−11.2%
Nice +0.25 (AH)	2.22	1.92	+19.8%
Nice -0.25 (AH)	1.62	1.90	−13.3%
Auxerre +0.25 (AH)	1.75	2.11	−24.1%
Auxerre -0.25 (AH)	2.46	2.09	+5.4%
Nice +0.5 (AH)	2.57	1.93	+38.8%
Nice -0.5 (AH)	1.48	1.91	−21.4%
Auxerre +0.5 (AH)	1.57	2.10	−31.0%
Auxerre -0.5 (AH)	2.85	2.08	+20.5%
Nice +0.75 (AH)	3.13	1.93	+70.9%
Nice -0.75 (AH)	1.34	1.91	−29.2%
Auxerre +0.75 (AH)	1.40	2.10	−37.2%
Auxerre -0.75 (AH)	3.54	2.07	+49.5%
Nice +1 (AH)	4.32	1.93	+133.2%
Nice -1 (AH)	1.20	1.87	−35.3%
Auxerre +1 (AH)	1.25	2.15	−44.7%
Auxerre -1 (AH)	5.08	2.08	+104.8%
Nice +1.25 (AH)	—	2.03 soft	—
Nice -1.25 (AH)	—	2.04 soft	—
Auxerre +1.25 (AH)	—	1.96 soft	—
Auxerre -1.25 (AH)	—	1.97 soft	—
Nice +1.5 (AH)	—	2.04 soft	—
Nice -1.5 (AH)	—	2.09 soft	—
Auxerre +1.5 (AH)	—	1.92 soft	—
Auxerre -1.5 (AH)	—	1.96 soft	—
Nice -1.75 (AH)	—	—	—
Auxerre -1.75 (AH)	—	—	—

Goals over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 0.5 goals	—	1.07 soft	—
Under 0.5 goals	—	15.07 soft	—
Over 1.5 goals	1.30	1.32	−3.2%
Under 1.5 goals	3.75	4.10	−8.5%
Over 2.5 goals	1.98	2.03	−5.8%
Under 2.5 goals	1.93	1.97	−3.2%
Over 3.5 goals	3.38	3.66	−7.0%
Under 3.5 goals	1.35	1.38	−3.4%
Over 4.5 goals	—	8.77 soft	—
Under 4.5 goals	—	1.13 soft	—
Over 5.5 goals	—	21.74 soft	—
Under 5.5 goals	—	1.05 soft	—
Over 6.5 goals	—	76.09 soft	—
Under 6.5 goals	—	1.01 soft	—
Over 7.5 goals	—	—	—

Both teams to score

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
Both teams to score: Yes		1.81 soft
Both teams to score: No		2.23 soft

1st half winner

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
1st half: Auxerre to win	3.42	3.55	−9.9%
1st half: draw	2.29	2.35	−6.4%
1st half: Nice to win	3.29	3.41	−4.8%

1st half over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
1st half: Over 0.5 goals	1.38	1.42	−1.2%
1st half: Under 0.5 goals	3.09	3.40	−19.0%
1st half: Over 1.5 goals	2.89	3.13	−12.2%
1st half: Under 1.5 goals	1.43	1.47	−4.7%
1st half: Over 2.5 goals	—	11.55 soft	—
1st half: Under 2.5 goals	—	1.09 soft	—
1st half: Over 3.5 goals	—	72.04 soft	—
1st half: Under 3.5 goals	—	1.01 soft	—

2nd half winner

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
2nd half: Auxerre to win		3.22 soft
2nd half: draw		2.63 soft
2nd half: Nice to win		3.22 soft

2nd half over/under

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
2nd half: Over 0.5 goals		1.26 soft
2nd half: Under 0.5 goals		4.90 soft
2nd half: Over 1.5 goals		2.29 soft
2nd half: Under 1.5 goals		1.77 soft
2nd half: Over 2.5 goals		5.72 soft
2nd half: Under 2.5 goals		1.21 soft
2nd half: Over 3.5 goals		21.74 soft
2nd half: Under 3.5 goals		1.05 soft

Exact score

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
Exact score 1:1		7.49 soft
Exact score 1:0		11.82 soft
Exact score 0:1		12.56 soft
Exact score 2:1		13.30 soft
Exact score 0:0		13.30 soft
Exact score 1:2		13.30 soft
Exact score 2:0		17.87 soft
Exact score 2:2		17.87 soft
Exact score 0:2		17.87 soft
Exact score 3:1		30.63 soft

29 more not shown

Corners over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 10 corners	1.96	2.06	−11.8%
Under 10 corners	1.85	1.94	+2.1%
Over 10.5 corners	2.17	2.33	−14.2%
Under 10.5 corners	1.67	1.75	−1.2%

Cards over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 3.5 cards	1.57	1.64	+5.8%
Under 3.5 cards	2.38	2.57	−22.3%
Over 4.5 cards	2.24	2.40	−8.5%
Under 4.5 cards	1.64	1.71	−5.4%

Anytime scorer

Bet365 Real
Selection	Bet365
Ryan Rodin anytime scorer
Victor Orakpo anytime scorer
Djelan Morana anytime scorer
Cameron Archer anytime scorer
Xiangxin Wei anytime scorer
Mohamed Amoura anytime scorer
Elye Wahi anytime scorer
Gauthier Hein anytime scorer
Sofiane Diop anytime scorer
Lasso Coulibaly anytime scorer
Danny Namaso anytime scorer
Eros Maddy anytime scorer

47 more not shown

Total fouls, Goals by 15-minute window

Empty not priced by this bookmaker

20:45

Le Havre v Angers

Ligue 1, Regular Season - 4

No bet, prices out of sync

Le Havrefair 2.88−6.1%

Drawfair 3.37−2.1%

Angersfair 2.81−6.8%

1.30 – 1.32 implied goals Model

Bet365 3.30 vs Pinnacle fair 1.99 on Angers +0.75 (AH): EV +66.1%. The two snapshots are too far apart to compare honestly. No bet. Prices imply 1.30 goals for Le Havre and 1.32 for Angers.

Risk A one-goal swing inside the handicap.

Bet: No bet — tracked: Angers +0.75 (AH) @ 3.30

Prices out of sync

All markets, availability and referee

Availability Real

Le Havre — out: P. Argney (Injury), F. Mambimbi (Injury), L. Mpasi-Nzau (Injury), J. Mwanga (Red Card), R. Ndiaye (Groin Injury), T. Pembele (Inactive), A. Toure (Knee Injury), S. Zagadou (Injury)

Angers — out: H. Belkebla (Thigh Injury)

Referee: Ruddy Buquet Real

Prices as of Bet365 07:38, Pinnacle 11:35 (Vienna). Bet365 1X2 margin 5.5%, Pinnacle 2.8% Model

Double chance

Bet365 Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Fair	EV
Le Havre or draw	1.55	−9.8%
Le Havre or Angers	1.42	−4.3%
Angers or draw	1.53	−6.1%

Asian handicap

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Angers 0 (AH)	1.94	1.98	−5.0%
Le Havre 0 (AH)	1.98	2.02	−2.0%
Angers +0.25 (AH)	2.34	1.98	+16.0%
Angers -0.25 (AH)	1.65	1.98	−18.0%
Le Havre +0.25 (AH)	1.68	2.02	−21.0%
Le Havre -0.25 (AH)	2.39	2.02	+11.5%
Angers +0.5 (AH)	2.74	1.99	+34.8%
Angers -0.5 (AH)	1.50	1.99	−25.6%
Le Havre +0.5 (AH)	1.51	2.01	−27.9%
Le Havre -0.5 (AH)	2.79	2.01	+29.2%
Angers +0.75 (AH)	3.37	1.99	+66.1%
Angers -0.75 (AH)	1.35	1.98	−33.4%
Le Havre +0.75 (AH)	1.36	2.02	−34.6%
Le Havre -0.75 (AH)	3.45	2.01	+63.9%
Angers +1 (AH)	4.77	1.99	+134.0%
Angers -1 (AH)	1.21	1.97	−39.6%
Le Havre +1 (AH)	1.22	2.03	−41.9%
Le Havre -1 (AH)	4.91	2.01	+123.6%
Angers +1.25 (AH)	—	2.00 soft	—
Angers -1.25 (AH)	1.24	2.00 soft	—
Le Havre +1.25 (AH)	—	2.00 soft	—
Le Havre -1.25 (AH)	4.40	2.00 soft	—
Angers +1.5 (AH)	—	2.00 soft	—
Angers -1.5 (AH)	—	2.00 soft	—
Le Havre +1.5 (AH)	—	2.00 soft	—
Le Havre -1.5 (AH)	—	2.00 soft	—
Angers -1.75 (AH)	—	—	—
Le Havre -1.75 (AH)	—	—	—

Goals over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 0.5 goals	—	1.08 soft	—
Under 0.5 goals	—	13.12 soft	—
Over 1.5 goals	1.30	1.32	+0.6%
Under 1.5 goals	3.76	4.10	−17.1%
Over 2.5 goals	1.99	2.04	+3.1%
Under 2.5 goals	1.92	1.96	−11.9%
Over 3.5 goals	3.38	3.66	+2.5%
Under 3.5 goals	1.35	1.38	−7.0%
Over 4.5 goals	—	9.55 soft	—
Under 4.5 goals	—	1.12 soft	—
Over 5.5 goals	—	39.44 soft	—
Under 5.5 goals	—	1.03 soft	—
Over 6.5 goals	—	78.14 soft	—
Under 6.5 goals	—	1.01 soft	—

Both teams to score

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
Both teams to score: Yes		1.92 soft
Both teams to score: No		2.09 soft

1st half winner

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
1st half: Le Havre to win	3.36	3.50	−7.0%
1st half: draw	2.28	2.34	−10.3%
1st half: Angers to win	3.35	3.48	−2.4%

1st half over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
1st half: Over 0.5 goals	1.39	1.43	+1.1%
1st half: Under 0.5 goals	3.08	3.35	−21.9%
1st half: Over 1.5 goals	2.90	3.14	+3.6%
1st half: Under 1.5 goals	1.43	1.47	−9.4%
1st half: Over 2.5 goals	—	13.12 soft	—
1st half: Under 2.5 goals	—	1.08 soft	—
1st half: Over 3.5 goals	—	76.09 soft	—
1st half: Under 3.5 goals	—	1.01 soft	—

2nd half winner

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
2nd half: Le Havre to win		3.29 soft
2nd half: draw		2.55 soft
2nd half: Angers to win		3.29 soft

2nd half over/under

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
2nd half: Over 0.5 goals		1.32 soft
2nd half: Under 0.5 goals		4.11 soft
2nd half: Over 1.5 goals		2.50 soft
2nd half: Under 1.5 goals		1.67 soft
2nd half: Over 2.5 goals		7.13 soft
2nd half: Under 2.5 goals		1.16 soft
2nd half: Over 3.5 goals		28.00 soft
2nd half: Under 3.5 goals		1.04 soft

Exact score

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
Exact score 1:1		7.38 soft
Exact score 1:0		10.17 soft
Exact score 0:0		10.88 soft
Exact score 0:1		10.88 soft
Exact score 2:1		13.04 soft
Exact score 1:2		14.50 soft
Exact score 2:0		17.47 soft
Exact score 0:2		17.47 soft
Exact score 2:2		20.50 soft
Exact score 3:1		33.02 soft

28 more not shown

Corners over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 8.5 corners	1.59	1.67	+3.8%
Under 8.5 corners	2.30	2.50	−20.0%
Over 9 corners	1.78	1.87	−3.6%
Under 9 corners	2.03	2.15	−7.1%
Over 9.5 corners	2.03	2.16	−7.4%
Under 9.5 corners	1.77	1.86	−7.1%

Cards over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Bet365	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 3.5 cards		1.94	2.04	−6.4%
Under 3.5 cards		1.87	1.96	−8.2%

Anytime scorer

Bet365 Real
Selection	Bet365
Mamadou Simbakoli anytime scorer
Prosper Peter anytime scorer
Josh Maja anytime scorer
Joan Tincres anytime scorer
Ally Samatta anytime scorer
Amine El Ouazzani anytime scorer
Rayan Fofana anytime scorer
Andy Logbo anytime scorer
Sota Nakamura anytime scorer
Harouna Djibirin anytime scorer
Amine Sbai anytime scorer
Enzo Koffi anytime scorer

33 more not shown

Total fouls, Goals by 15-minute window

Empty not priced by this bookmaker

20:45

Lorient v Toulouse

Ligue 1, Regular Season - 4

Published pick

Lorientfair 2.58−7.1%

Drawfair 3.54−6.9%

Toulousefair 3.02−0.8%

1.43 – 1.31 implied goals Model

Bet365 5.25 vs Pinnacle fair 2.11 on Toulouse +1 (AH): EV +148.7%. The gap clears the Value bar and Pinnacle's margin is tight enough to trust the reference. Prices imply 1.43 goals for Lorient and 1.31 for Toulouse.

Risk A one-goal swing inside the handicap.

Bet: Toulouse +1 (AH) @ 5.25

All markets, availability and referee

Availability Real

Lorient — out: B. Fadiga (Injury)

Toulouse — out: A. Donnum (Personal Reasons), A. Francis (Muscle Injury), R. Nicolaisen (Inactive), G. Restes (Injury)

Referee: Aurelien Petit Real

Prices as of Bet365 11:35, Pinnacle 11:35 (Vienna). Bet365 1X2 margin 5.3%, Pinnacle 2.9% Model

Double chance

Bet365 Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Fair	EV
Lorient or draw	1.49	−6.3%
Lorient or Toulouse	1.39	−2.4%
Toulouse or draw	1.63	−8.1%

Asian handicap

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Toulouse 0 (AH)	2.13	2.17	−3.5%
Lorient 0 (AH)	1.82	1.85	−8.1%
Toulouse +0.25 (AH)	2.53	2.13	+17.2%
Toulouse -0.25 (AH)	1.78	2.16	−17.7%
Lorient +0.25 (AH)	1.59	1.86	−19.4%
Lorient -0.25 (AH)	2.17	1.88	+11.6%
Toulouse +0.5 (AH)	2.93	2.11	+35.0%
Toulouse -0.5 (AH)	1.59	2.15	−26.6%
Lorient +0.5 (AH)	1.46	1.87	−25.1%
Lorient -0.5 (AH)	2.52	1.90	+23.6%
Toulouse +0.75 (AH)	3.65	2.11	+68.3%
Toulouse -0.75 (AH)	1.42	2.18	−35.6%
Lorient +0.75 (AH)	1.32	1.85	−31.4%
Lorient -0.75 (AH)	3.05	1.90	+49.9%
Toulouse +1 (AH)	5.26	2.11	+148.7%
Toulouse -1 (AH)	1.27	2.25	−44.4%
Lorient +1 (AH)	1.19	1.80	−35.6%
Lorient -1 (AH)	4.16	1.90	+100.0%
Toulouse +1.25 (AH)	—	2.14 soft	—
Toulouse -1.25 (AH)	—	2.30 soft	—
Lorient +1.25 (AH)	—	1.77 soft	—
Lorient -1.25 (AH)	—	1.88 soft	—
Toulouse +1.5 (AH)	—	2.13 soft	—
Toulouse -1.5 (AH)	—	2.30 soft	—
Lorient +1.5 (AH)	—	1.77 soft	—
Lorient -1.5 (AH)	—	1.89 soft	—
Toulouse -1.75 (AH)	—	—	—
Lorient -1.75 (AH)	—	—	—

Goals over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 0.5 goals	—	1.07 soft	—
Under 0.5 goals	—	15.07 soft	—
Over 1.5 goals	1.27	1.29	−0.9%
Under 1.5 goals	4.02	4.43	−15.4%
Over 2.5 goals	1.88	1.93	−0.9%
Under 2.5 goals	2.02	2.08	−8.1%
Over 3.5 goals	3.16	3.39	+0.3%
Under 3.5 goals	1.39	1.42	−6.2%
Over 4.5 goals	—	8.08 soft	—
Under 4.5 goals	—	1.14 soft	—
Over 5.5 goals	—	21.74 soft	—
Under 5.5 goals	—	1.05 soft	—
Over 6.5 goals	—	76.09 soft	—
Under 6.5 goals	—	1.01 soft	—
Over 7.5 goals	—	—	—

Both teams to score

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
Both teams to score: Yes		1.81 soft
Both teams to score: No		2.23 soft

1st half winner

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
1st half: Lorient to win	3.13	3.25	−4.5%
1st half: draw	2.31	2.37	−7.3%
1st half: Toulouse to win	3.55	3.70	−8.0%

1st half over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
1st half: Over 0.5 goals	1.37	1.41	−0.4%
1st half: Under 0.5 goals	3.16	3.47	−20.7%
1st half: Over 1.5 goals	2.82	3.04	−9.6%
1st half: Under 1.5 goals	1.45	1.49	−6.0%
1st half: Over 2.5 goals	—	11.55 soft	—
1st half: Under 2.5 goals	—	1.09 soft	—
1st half: Over 3.5 goals	—	72.04 soft	—
1st half: Under 3.5 goals	—	1.01 soft	—

2nd half winner

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
2nd half: Lorient to win		3.12 soft
2nd half: draw		2.67 soft
2nd half: Toulouse to win		3.28 soft

2nd half over/under

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
2nd half: Over 0.5 goals		1.26 soft
2nd half: Under 0.5 goals		4.90 soft
2nd half: Over 1.5 goals		2.29 soft
2nd half: Under 1.5 goals		1.77 soft
2nd half: Over 2.5 goals		5.72 soft
2nd half: Under 2.5 goals		1.21 soft
2nd half: Over 3.5 goals		17.63 soft
2nd half: Under 3.5 goals		1.06 soft

Exact score

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
Exact score 1:1		7.43 soft
Exact score 1:0		11.70 soft
Exact score 2:1		13.16 soft
Exact score 0:0		13.16 soft
Exact score 0:1		13.16 soft
Exact score 1:2		14.65 soft
Exact score 2:2		16.14 soft
Exact score 2:0		17.66 soft
Exact score 0:2		20.73 soft
Exact score 3:1		27.00 soft

29 more not shown

Corners over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 9 corners	1.69	1.77	+2.7%
Under 9 corners	2.14	2.29	−13.7%
Over 9.5 corners	1.93	2.03	−1.4%
Under 9.5 corners	1.88	1.97	−12.3%

Cards over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 3.5 cards	1.82	1.90	−8.9%
Under 3.5 cards	2.01	2.11	−5.3%
Over 4.5 cards	2.66	2.96	−25.7%
Under 4.5 cards	1.45	1.51	+7.3%

Anytime scorer

Bet365 Real
Selection	Bet365
Ibrahima Balde anytime scorer
Julien Vignolo anytime scorer
Casper Tengstedt anytime scorer
Mohamed Bamba anytime scorer
Tosin Aiyegun anytime scorer
Yann Gboho anytime scorer
Santiago Hidalgo anytime scorer
Isak Jensen anytime scorer
Jacen Russell-Rowe anytime scorer
Ilyas Azizi anytime scorer
Abu Francis anytime scorer
Souleymane Faye anytime scorer

38 more not shown

Total fouls, Goals by 15-minute window

Empty not priced by this bookmaker

20:45

Paris FC v Lyon

Ligue 1, Regular Season - 4

Published pick

Paris FCfair 2.65−4.0%

Drawfair 3.89−4.9%

Lyonfair 2.73−6.6%

1.58 – 1.56 implied goals Model

Bet365 4.10 vs Pinnacle fair 1.99 on Paris FC -1 (AH): EV +106.5%. The gap clears the Value bar and Pinnacle's margin is tight enough to trust the reference. Prices imply 1.58 goals for Paris FC and 1.56 for Lyon.

Risk A one-goal swing inside the handicap.

Bet: Paris FC -1 (AH) @ 4.10

All markets, availability and referee

Availability Real

Paris FC — out: T. De Smet (Inactive), E. Mbemba (Inactive), Otavio (Injury), N. Sangui (Injury); doubtful: J. Ikone (Hamstring Injury)

Lyon — out: J. Duranville (Muscle Injury), A. Hamdani (Inactive), R. Himbert (Inactive), M. Ouedraogo (Inactive)

Referee: Jerome Brisard Real

Prices as of Bet365 11:35, Pinnacle 11:35 (Vienna). Bet365 1X2 margin 5.5%, Pinnacle 2.8% Model

Double chance

Bet365 Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Fair	EV
Paris FC or draw	1.58	−5.0%
Paris FC or Lyon	1.35	−4.9%
Lyon or draw	1.60	−6.5%

Asian handicap

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Lyon 0 (AH)	1.98	2.03	−3.8%
Paris FC 0 (AH)	1.93	1.97	−3.7%
Lyon +0.25 (AH)	2.32	2.02	+8.8%
Lyon -0.25 (AH)	1.71	2.02	−18.5%
Paris FC +0.25 (AH)	1.68	1.98	−16.5%
Paris FC -0.25 (AH)	2.26	1.98	+11.2%
Lyon +0.5 (AH)	2.65	2.02	+24.0%
Lyon -0.5 (AH)	1.56	2.02	−25.8%
Paris FC +0.5 (AH)	1.54	1.98	−24.2%
Paris FC -0.5 (AH)	2.59	1.98	+26.0%
Lyon +0.75 (AH)	3.19	2.02	+48.9%
Lyon -0.75 (AH)	1.41	2.03	−32.0%
Paris FC +0.75 (AH)	1.39	1.97	−30.0%
Paris FC -0.75 (AH)	3.11	1.99	+51.1%
Lyon +1 (AH)	4.28	2.02	+103.5%
Lyon -1 (AH)	1.27	2.05	−40.0%
Paris FC +1 (AH)	1.25	1.95	−37.0%
Paris FC -1 (AH)	4.15	1.99	+106.5%
Lyon +1.25 (AH)	—	2.00 soft	—
Lyon -1.25 (AH)	—	2.00 soft	—
Paris FC +1.25 (AH)	—	2.00 soft	—
Paris FC -1.25 (AH)	—	2.00 soft	—
Lyon +1.5 (AH)	—	2.00 soft	—
Lyon -1.5 (AH)	—	2.00 soft	—
Paris FC +1.5 (AH)	—	2.00 soft	—
Paris FC -1.5 (AH)	—	2.00 soft	—
Lyon +1.75 (AH)	—	2.00 soft	—
Lyon -1.75 (AH)	—	2.00 soft	—
Paris FC +1.75 (AH)	—	2.00 soft	—
Paris FC -1.75 (AH)	—	2.00 soft	—

Goals over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 0.5 goals	—	1.04 soft	—
Under 0.5 goals	—	28.00 soft	—
Over 1.5 goals	—	1.19 soft	—
Under 1.5 goals	—	6.16 soft	—
Over 2.5 goals	1.60	1.64	−4.2%
Under 2.5 goals	2.45	2.56	−7.2%
Over 3.5 goals	2.47	2.58	−7.6%
Under 3.5 goals	1.60	1.64	−4.0%
Over 4.5 goals	—	5.06 soft	—
Under 4.5 goals	—	1.25 soft	—
Over 5.5 goals	—	11.55 soft	—
Under 5.5 goals	—	1.09 soft	—
Over 6.5 goals	—	39.44 soft	—
Under 6.5 goals	—	1.03 soft	—
Over 7.5 goals	—	78.14 soft	—
Under 7.5 goals	—	1.01 soft	—

Both teams to score

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
Both teams to score: Yes		1.57 soft
Both teams to score: No		2.76 soft

1st half winner

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
1st half: Paris FC to win	3.14	3.25	−4.6%
1st half: draw	2.53	2.60	−11.6%
1st half: Lyon to win	3.14	3.25	−4.6%

1st half over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
1st half: Over 0.5 goals	—	1.34 soft	—
1st half: Under 0.5 goals	—	3.93 soft	—
1st half: Over 1.5 goals	2.35	2.49	+0.5%
1st half: Under 1.5 goals	1.62	1.67	−10.3%
1st half: Over 2.5 goals	—	8.08 soft	—
1st half: Under 2.5 goals	—	1.14 soft	—
1st half: Over 3.5 goals	—	39.44 soft	—
1st half: Under 3.5 goals	—	1.03 soft	—

2nd half winner

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
2nd half: Paris FC to win		3.06 soft
2nd half: draw		2.88 soft
2nd half: Lyon to win		3.06 soft

2nd half over/under

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
2nd half: Over 0.5 goals		1.21 soft
2nd half: Under 0.5 goals		5.72 soft
2nd half: Over 1.5 goals		2.00 soft
2nd half: Under 1.5 goals		2.00 soft
2nd half: Over 2.5 goals		4.47 soft
2nd half: Under 2.5 goals		1.29 soft
2nd half: Over 3.5 goals		13.12 soft
2nd half: Under 3.5 goals		1.08 soft
2nd half: Over 4.5 goals		72.04 soft
2nd half: Under 4.5 goals		1.01 soft

Exact score

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
Exact score 1:1		9.38 soft
Exact score 2:1		12.92 soft
Exact score 1:2		12.92 soft
Exact score 2:2		14.36 soft
Exact score 1:0		17.29 soft
Exact score 0:1		17.29 soft
Exact score 2:0		20.27 soft
Exact score 0:2		20.27 soft
Exact score 0:0		23.30 soft
Exact score 3:1		26.36 soft

33 more not shown

Corners over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 9.5 corners	1.83	1.92	−6.2%
Under 9.5 corners	1.98	2.09	−8.6%
Over 10 corners	2.03	2.17	−16.1%
Under 10 corners	1.76	1.86	+6.7%
Over 10.5 corners	2.25	2.45	−18.3%
Under 10.5 corners	1.61	1.69	+2.3%

Cards over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Bet365	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 4.5 cards		2.10	2.24	−18.4%
Under 4.5 cards		1.72	1.80	+1.4%

Anytime scorer

Bet365 Real
Selection	Bet365
Jean-Philippe Krasso anytime scorer
Ciro Immobile anytime scorer
Lois Openda anytime scorer
Lassine Sinayoko anytime scorer
Pavel Sulc anytime scorer
Pablo Pagis anytime scorer
Alejandro Gomes anytime scorer
Ilan Kebbal anytime scorer
Moses Simon anytime scorer
Remi Himbert anytime scorer
Omar Sissoko anytime scorer
Ernest Nuamah anytime scorer

37 more not shown

Total fouls, Goals by 15-minute window

Empty not priced by this bookmaker

Primera División3 matches

17:30

Club Deportivo Los Chankas v FC Cajamarca

Primera División, Clausura - 9

Published pick

Club Deportivo Los Chankasfair 1.97−6.3%

Drawfair 4.02−13.0%

FC Cajamarcafair 4.08−4.5%

1.79 – 1.19 implied goals Model

Bet365 3.45 vs Pinnacle fair 2.80 on FC Cajamarca +0.25 (AH): EV +23.4%. The gap clears the Value bar and Pinnacle's margin is tight enough to trust the reference. Prices imply 1.79 goals for Club Deportivo Los Chankas and 1.19 for FC Cajamarca.

Risk A one-goal swing inside the handicap.

Bet: FC Cajamarca +0.25 (AH) @ 3.45

All markets, availability and referee

Availability Real

Club Deportivo Los Chankas — out: none listed

FC Cajamarca — out: none listed

Referee: not in feed.

Prices as of Bet365 10:25, Pinnacle 10:25 (Vienna). Bet365 1X2 margin 8.3%, Pinnacle 7.8% Model

Double chance

Bet365 Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Fair	EV
Club Deportivo Los Chankas or draw	1.32	−7.9%
Club Deportivo Los Chankas or FC Cajamarca	1.33	−3.8%
FC Cajamarca or draw	2.03	−3.8%

Asian handicap

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
FC Cajamarca 0 (AH)	2.79	3.14	−4.5%
Club Deportivo Los Chankas 0 (AH)	1.41	1.47	−5.9%
FC Cajamarca +0.25 (AH)	3.20	2.80	+23.4%
FC Cajamarca -0.25 (AH)	2.22	3.04	−26.1%
Club Deportivo Los Chankas +0.25 (AH)	1.33	1.49	−12.7%
Club Deportivo Los Chankas -0.25 (AH)	1.65	1.56	+4.1%
FC Cajamarca +0.5 (AH)	—	2.71 soft	—
FC Cajamarca -0.5 (AH)	1.93	3.14 soft	—
Club Deportivo Los Chankas +0.5 (AH)	—	1.47 soft	—
Club Deportivo Los Chankas -0.5 (AH)	1.88	1.58 soft	—
FC Cajamarca +0.75 (AH)	—	2.73 soft	—
FC Cajamarca -0.75 (AH)	1.71	3.37 soft	—
Club Deportivo Los Chankas +0.75 (AH)	—	1.42 soft	—
Club Deportivo Los Chankas -0.75 (AH)	2.12	1.58 soft	—
FC Cajamarca -1 (AH)	1.50	—	—
Club Deportivo Los Chankas -1 (AH)	2.53	—	—
FC Cajamarca -1.25 (AH)	1.40	—	—
Club Deportivo Los Chankas -1.25 (AH)	2.86	—	—
FC Cajamarca -1.5 (AH)	1.36	—	—
Club Deportivo Los Chankas -1.5 (AH)	3.00	—	—
FC Cajamarca -1.75 (AH)	—	—	—
Club Deportivo Los Chankas -1.75 (AH)	—	—	—
FC Cajamarca -2 (AH)	—	—	—
Club Deportivo Los Chankas -2 (AH)	—	—	—
FC Cajamarca -2.25 (AH)	—	—	—
Club Deportivo Los Chankas -2.25 (AH)	—	—	—
FC Cajamarca -2.5 (AH)	—	—	—
Club Deportivo Los Chankas -2.5 (AH)	—	—	—

Goals over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 0.5 goals	—	1.05 soft	—
Under 0.5 goals	—	21.74 soft	—
Over 1.5 goals	—	1.23 soft	—
Under 1.5 goals	—	5.32 soft	—
Over 2.5 goals	1.66	1.74	−2.4%
Under 2.5 goals	2.18	2.35	−10.5%
Over 3.5 goals	2.61	2.93	−10.7%
Under 3.5 goals	1.45	1.52	−5.1%
Over 4.5 goals	—	6.16 soft	—
Under 4.5 goals	—	1.19 soft	—
Over 5.5 goals	—	15.07 soft	—
Under 5.5 goals	—	1.07 soft	—
Over 6.5 goals	—	72.04 soft	—
Under 6.5 goals	—	1.01 soft	—
Over 7.5 goals	—	—	—

Both teams to score

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
Both teams to score: Yes		1.71 soft
Both teams to score: No		2.41 soft

1st half winner

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
1st half: Club Deportivo Los Chankas to win	2.31	2.55	−5.7%
1st half: draw	2.33	2.57	−7.4%
1st half: FC Cajamarca to win	3.91	4.58	−12.7%

1st half over/under

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
1st half: Over 0.5 goals		1.34 soft
1st half: Under 0.5 goals		3.93 soft
1st half: Over 1.5 goals		2.76 soft
1st half: Under 1.5 goals		1.57 soft
1st half: Over 2.5 goals		8.08 soft
1st half: Under 2.5 goals		1.14 soft
1st half: Over 3.5 goals		39.44 soft
1st half: Under 3.5 goals		1.03 soft

2nd half winner

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
2nd half: Club Deportivo Los Chankas to win		2.31 soft
2nd half: draw		2.93 soft
2nd half: FC Cajamarca to win		4.43 soft

2nd half over/under

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
2nd half: Over 0.5 goals		1.23 soft
2nd half: Under 0.5 goals		5.32 soft
2nd half: Over 1.5 goals		2.00 soft
2nd half: Under 1.5 goals		2.00 soft
2nd half: Over 2.5 goals		4.47 soft
2nd half: Under 2.5 goals		1.29 soft
2nd half: Over 3.5 goals		15.07 soft
2nd half: Under 3.5 goals		1.07 soft
2nd half: Over 4.5 goals		73.77 soft
2nd half: Under 4.5 goals		1.01 soft

Exact score

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
Exact score 1:1		8.78 soft
Exact score 2:1		10.90 soft
Exact score 1:0		11.62 soft
Exact score 2:0		13.07 soft
Exact score 2:2		16.02 soft
Exact score 0:0		17.52 soft
Exact score 1:2		17.52 soft
Exact score 3:1		20.55 soft
Exact score 0:1		20.55 soft
Exact score 3:0		23.64 soft

29 more not shown

Corners over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 8.5 corners	1.59	1.70	+2.1%
Under 8.5 corners	2.19	2.44	−18.0%
Over 9 corners	1.76	1.89	+5.8%
Under 9 corners	1.95	2.12	−15.2%

Cards over/under

Empty not priced by this bookmaker

Anytime scorer

Bet365 Real
Selection	Bet365
Franco Torres anytime scorer
Jarlin Quintero anytime scorer
Oshiro Takeuchi anytime scorer
Kenyi Barrios anytime scorer
Juan Diego Ospina anytime scorer
Jose Lugo anytime scorer
Marlon Torres anytime scorer
Accel Campos anytime scorer
Felix Espinoza anytime scorer
Michael Rasmussen anytime scorer
Pedro Cejas anytime scorer
Andre Vasquez anytime scorer

43 more not shown

Total fouls, Goals by 15-minute window

Empty not priced by this bookmaker

20:00

Comerciantes Unidos v Sport Huancayo

Primera División, Clausura - 9

Published pick

Comerciantes Unidosfair 2.33−7.9%

Drawfair 3.74−13.0%

Sport Huancayofair 3.29+0.3%

1.48 – 1.21 implied goals Model

Bet365 3.70 vs Pinnacle fair 2.17 on Sport Huancayo +0.75 (AH): EV +70.1%. The gap clears the Value bar and Pinnacle's margin is tight enough to trust the reference. Prices imply 1.48 goals for Comerciantes Unidos and 1.21 for Sport Huancayo.

Risk A one-goal swing inside the handicap.

Bet: Sport Huancayo +0.75 (AH) @ 3.70

All markets, availability and referee

Availability Real

Comerciantes Unidos — out: none listed

Sport Huancayo — out: none listed

Referee: not in feed.

Prices as of Bet365 10:25, Pinnacle 10:25 (Vienna). Bet365 1X2 margin 7.6%, Pinnacle 7.8% Model

Double chance

Bet365 Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Fair	EV
Comerciantes Unidos or draw	1.44	−5.3%
Comerciantes Unidos or Sport Huancayo	1.36	−0.4%
Sport Huancayo or draw	1.75	−10.3%

Asian handicap

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Sport Huancayo 0 (AH)	2.26	2.43	−11.4%
Comerciantes Unidos 0 (AH)	1.63	1.70	−1.2%
Sport Huancayo +0.25 (AH)	2.61	2.30	+13.1%
Sport Huancayo -0.25 (AH)	1.89	2.42	−19.3%
Comerciantes Unidos +0.25 (AH)	1.47	1.71	−13.2%
Comerciantes Unidos -0.25 (AH)	1.93	1.77	+4.5%
Sport Huancayo +0.5 (AH)	2.97	2.26	+33.0%
Sport Huancayo -0.5 (AH)	1.67	2.40	−33.4%
Comerciantes Unidos +0.5 (AH)	1.37	1.71	−19.4%
Comerciantes Unidos -0.5 (AH)	2.19	1.80	+28.0%
Sport Huancayo +0.75 (AH)	3.29	2.17	+70.1%
Sport Huancayo -0.75 (AH)	1.48	2.29	−36.8%
Comerciantes Unidos +0.75 (AH)	1.31	1.77	−28.9%
Comerciantes Unidos -0.75 (AH)	2.57	1.85	+44.8%
Sport Huancayo +1 (AH)	—	2.23 soft	—
Sport Huancayo -1 (AH)	1.30	2.45 soft	—
Comerciantes Unidos +1 (AH)	—	1.69 soft	—
Comerciantes Unidos -1 (AH)	3.39	1.81 soft	—
Sport Huancayo +1.25 (AH)	—	2.19 soft	—
Sport Huancayo -1.25 (AH)	—	2.44 soft	—
Comerciantes Unidos +1.25 (AH)	—	1.69 soft	—
Comerciantes Unidos -1.25 (AH)	—	1.84 soft	—
Sport Huancayo +1.5 (AH)	—	2.16 soft	—
Sport Huancayo -1.5 (AH)	—	2.39 soft	—
Comerciantes Unidos +1.5 (AH)	—	1.72 soft	—
Comerciantes Unidos -1.5 (AH)	—	1.86 soft	—
Sport Huancayo -1.75 (AH)	—	—	—
Comerciantes Unidos -1.75 (AH)	—	—	—

Goals over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 0.5 goals	—	1.06 soft	—
Under 0.5 goals	—	17.63 soft	—
Over 1.5 goals	—	1.29 soft	—
Under 1.5 goals	—	4.47 soft	—
Over 2.5 goals	1.89	1.99	−4.5%
Under 2.5 goals	1.91	2.01	−5.5%
Over 3.5 goals	2.87	3.28	−1.0%
Under 3.5 goals	1.38	1.44	−7.5%
Over 4.5 goals	—	8.77 soft	—
Under 4.5 goals	—	1.13 soft	—
Over 5.5 goals	—	21.74 soft	—
Under 5.5 goals	—	1.05 soft	—
Over 6.5 goals	—	76.09 soft	—
Under 6.5 goals	—	1.01 soft	—
Over 7.5 goals	—	—	—

Both teams to score

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
Both teams to score: Yes		1.77 soft
Both teams to score: No		2.29 soft

1st half winner

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
1st half: Comerciantes Unidos to win	2.73	3.07	−2.2%
1st half: draw	2.17	2.37	−7.3%
1st half: Sport Huancayo to win	3.43	3.96	−11.6%

1st half over/under

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
1st half: Over 0.5 goals		1.41 soft
1st half: Under 0.5 goals		3.43 soft
1st half: Over 1.5 goals		3.15 soft
1st half: Under 1.5 goals		1.47 soft
1st half: Over 2.5 goals		9.55 soft
1st half: Under 2.5 goals		1.12 soft
1st half: Over 3.5 goals		72.04 soft
1st half: Under 3.5 goals		1.01 soft

2nd half winner

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
2nd half: Comerciantes Unidos to win		2.88 soft
2nd half: draw		2.74 soft
2nd half: Sport Huancayo to win		3.47 soft

2nd half over/under

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
2nd half: Over 0.5 goals		1.26 soft
2nd half: Under 0.5 goals		4.90 soft
2nd half: Over 1.5 goals		2.18 soft
2nd half: Under 1.5 goals		1.85 soft
2nd half: Over 2.5 goals		5.32 soft
2nd half: Under 2.5 goals		1.23 soft
2nd half: Over 3.5 goals		17.63 soft
2nd half: Under 3.5 goals		1.06 soft
2nd half: Over 4.5 goals		76.09 soft
2nd half: Under 4.5 goals		1.01 soft

Exact score

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
Exact score 1:1		8.17 soft
Exact score 1:0		11.03 soft
Exact score 2:1		12.50 soft
Exact score 0:0		13.24 soft
Exact score 0:1		13.24 soft
Exact score 1:2		14.73 soft
Exact score 2:0		16.25 soft
Exact score 2:2		17.77 soft
Exact score 0:2		20.87 soft
Exact score 3:1		27.20 soft

27 more not shown

Corners over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 8.5 corners	1.68	1.80	−3.8%
Under 8.5 corners	2.05	2.25	−11.2%
Over 9 corners	1.89	2.04	−1.8%
Under 9 corners	1.83	1.97	−8.4%

Cards over/under

Empty not priced by this bookmaker

Anytime scorer

Bet365 Real
Selection	Bet365
Matias Sen anytime scorer
Wilter Ayovi anytime scorer
Oscar Pinto anytime scorer
Elbio Perez anytime scorer
Daniel Porozo anytime scorer
Franco Caballero anytime scorer
Piero Magallanes anytime scorer
Ronal Huaccha anytime scorer
Jhon Sanchez anytime scorer
Nahuel Lujan anytime scorer
Hideyoshi Arakaki anytime scorer
Fabricio Cubas anytime scorer

45 more not shown

Total fouls, Goals by 15-minute window

Empty not priced by this bookmaker

22:15

UCV Moquegua v Sporting Cristal

Primera División, Clausura - 9

Published pick

UCV Moqueguafair 4.40−14.7%

Drawfair 3.80−7.9%

Sporting Cristalfair 1.96−3.2%

1.07 – 1.69 implied goals Model

Bet365 4.10 vs Pinnacle fair 2.89 on UCV Moquegua -0.25 (AH): EV +41.9%. The gap clears the Value bar and Pinnacle's margin is tight enough to trust the reference. Prices imply 1.07 goals for UCV Moquegua and 1.69 for Sporting Cristal.

Risk A one-goal swing inside the handicap.

Bet: UCV Moquegua -0.25 (AH) @ 4.10

All markets, availability and referee

Availability Real

UCV Moquegua — out: none listed

Sporting Cristal — out: none listed

Referee: not in feed.

Prices as of Bet365 10:25, Pinnacle 10:25 (Vienna). Bet365 1X2 margin 7.9%, Pinnacle 7.8% Model

Double chance

Bet365 Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Fair	EV
UCV Moquegua or draw	2.04	+5.5%
UCV Moquegua or Sporting Cristal	1.36	−7.9%
Sporting Cristal or draw	1.29	−8.8%

Asian handicap

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Sporting Cristal 0 (AH)	1.38	1.43	−11.3%
UCV Moquegua 0 (AH)	2.93	3.31	+7.1%
Sporting Cristal +0.25 (AH)	1.63	1.53	−3.2%
Sporting Cristal -0.25 (AH)	1.30	1.45	−15.4%
UCV Moquegua +0.25 (AH)	2.26	3.20	−18.8%
UCV Moquegua -0.25 (AH)	3.39	2.89	+41.9%
Sporting Cristal +0.5 (AH)	1.88	1.55 soft	—
Sporting Cristal -0.5 (AH)	—	1.40 soft	—
UCV Moquegua +0.5 (AH)	1.94	3.48 soft	—
UCV Moquegua -0.5 (AH)	—	2.81 soft	—
Sporting Cristal +0.75 (AH)	2.14	1.48 soft	—
Sporting Cristal -0.75 (AH)	—	1.29 soft	—
UCV Moquegua +0.75 (AH)	1.70	4.40 soft	—
UCV Moquegua -0.75 (AH)	—	3.07 soft	—
Sporting Cristal +1 (AH)	2.62	—	—
UCV Moquegua +1 (AH)	1.46	—	—
Sporting Cristal +1.25 (AH)	3.01	—	—
UCV Moquegua +1.25 (AH)	1.36	—	—
Sporting Cristal +1.5 (AH)	2.88	—	—
UCV Moquegua +1.5 (AH)	1.39	—	—
Sporting Cristal +1.75 (AH)	—	—	—
UCV Moquegua +1.75 (AH)	—	—	—
Sporting Cristal +2 (AH)	—	—	—
UCV Moquegua +2 (AH)	—	—	—
Sporting Cristal +2.25 (AH)	—	—	—
UCV Moquegua +2.25 (AH)	—	—	—
Sporting Cristal +2.5 (AH)	—	—	—
UCV Moquegua +2.5 (AH)	—	—	—
Sporting Cristal +2.75 (AH)	—	—	—
UCV Moquegua +2.75 (AH)	—	—	—

Goals over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 0.5 goals	—	1.05 soft	—
Under 0.5 goals	—	21.24 soft	—
Over 1.5 goals	—	1.26 soft	—
Under 1.5 goals	—	4.90 soft	—
Over 2.5 goals	1.82	1.91	−5.7%
Under 2.5 goals	1.99	2.10	−4.8%
Over 3.5 goals	2.89	3.29	−16.5%
Under 3.5 goals	1.38	1.44	−2.5%
Over 4.5 goals	—	7.13 soft	—
Under 4.5 goals	—	1.16 soft	—
Over 5.5 goals	—	17.63 soft	—
Under 5.5 goals	—	1.06 soft	—
Over 6.5 goals	—	73.77 soft	—
Under 6.5 goals	—	1.01 soft	—
Over 7.5 goals	—	—	—

Both teams to score

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
Both teams to score: Yes		1.77 soft
Both teams to score: No		2.29 soft

1st half winner

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
1st half: UCV Moquegua to win	4.08	4.80	−9.9%
1st half: draw	2.23	2.45	−6.0%
1st half: Sporting Cristal to win	2.36	2.61	−4.1%

1st half over/under

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
1st half: Over 0.5 goals		1.37 soft
1st half: Under 0.5 goals		3.69 soft
1st half: Over 1.5 goals		2.76 soft
1st half: Under 1.5 goals		1.57 soft
1st half: Over 2.5 goals		8.77 soft
1st half: Under 2.5 goals		1.13 soft
1st half: Over 3.5 goals		39.44 soft
1st half: Under 3.5 goals		1.03 soft

2nd half winner

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
2nd half: UCV Moquegua to win		5.22 soft
2nd half: draw		2.96 soft
2nd half: Sporting Cristal to win		2.12 soft

2nd half over/under

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
2nd half: Over 0.5 goals		1.23 soft
2nd half: Under 0.5 goals		5.32 soft
2nd half: Over 1.5 goals		2.07 soft
2nd half: Under 1.5 goals		1.94 soft
2nd half: Over 2.5 goals		4.90 soft
2nd half: Under 2.5 goals		1.26 soft
2nd half: Over 3.5 goals		15.07 soft
2nd half: Under 3.5 goals		1.07 soft
2nd half: Over 4.5 goals		76.09 soft
2nd half: Under 4.5 goals		1.01 soft

Exact score

Bet365 Real fair Model
Selection	Bet365	Fair
Exact score 1:1		8.80 soft
Exact score 0:1		10.94 soft
Exact score 1:2		10.94 soft
Exact score 0:2		12.38 soft
Exact score 0:0		16.08 soft
Exact score 1:0		17.58 soft
Exact score 2:1		17.58 soft
Exact score 2:2		17.58 soft
Exact score 1:3		20.63 soft
Exact score 0:3		23.73 soft

29 more not shown

Corners over/under

Bet365 and Pinnacle Real fair and EV Model
Selection	Bet365	Pinnacle	Fair	EV
Over 9.5 corners		1.98	2.16	−11.4%
Under 9.5 corners		1.74	1.86	−3.5%

Cards over/under

Empty not priced by this bookmaker

Anytime scorer

Bet365 Real
Selection	Bet365
Michael Hoyos anytime scorer
Hernan Barcos anytime scorer
Felipe Vizeu anytime scorer
Santiago Gonzalez anytime scorer
Mateo Rodriguez anytime scorer
Gabriel Pinto anytime scorer
Irven Avila anytime scorer
Luis Iberico anytime scorer
Juan Manuel Cuesta anytime scorer
Christofer Gonzales anytime scorer
Carlos Del Valle anytime scorer
Jose Mellan anytime scorer

49 more not shown

Total fouls, Goals by 15-minute window

Empty not priced by this bookmaker

Track record

Published picks small sample

Settled: 0
Avg CLV: —
ROI, flat stake: —
Hit rate: —

Tracked, not sold small sample

Settled: 0
Avg CLV: —
ROI, flat stake: —
Hit rate: —

Closing-line value (CLV) against Pinnacle is the signal; hit rate on a small sample is noise. Record is display-only and never used to pick. Model

Combos

Built from match, handicap, totals, halves, corners, cards and both-teams-to-score legs, one leg per match. The numbers show what the bookmaker keeps.

Target odds

Today at a glance

Published picks

Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest

Bournemouth vs Brentford

Crystal Palace vs Ipswich

Tottenham vs Everton

1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart

FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen

FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt

1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen

Osasuna vs Espanyol

Athletic Club vs Elche

Genoa vs Frosinone

Lazio vs AC Milan

Atalanta vs Cagliari

Strasbourg vs Monaco

Lorient vs Toulouse

Paris FC vs Lyon

SCR Altach vs Grazer AK

Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna

Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs FC Cajamarca

Comerciantes Unidos vs Sport Huancayo

UCV Moquegua vs Sporting Cristal

Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest

Head to head Real

1X2

Double chance

Asian handicap

Goals over/under

Both teams to score

1st half winner

1st half over/under

2nd half winner

2nd half over/under

Exact score

Corners over/under

Cards over/under

Anytime scorer

Total fouls, Goals by 15-minute window

The board

Serie A3 matches

Availability Real

Double chance

Asian handicap

Goals over/under

Both teams to score

1st half winner

1st half over/under

2nd half winner

2nd half over/under

Exact score

Corners over/under

Cards over/under

Anytime scorer

Total fouls, Goals by 15-minute window

Availability Real

Double chance

Asian handicap

Goals over/under

Both teams to score

1st half winner

1st half over/under

2nd half winner

2nd half over/under

Exact score

Corners over/under

Cards over/under

Anytime scorer

Total fouls, Goals by 15-minute window

Availability Real

Double chance

Asian handicap

Goals over/under

Both teams to score

1st half winner

1st half over/under

2nd half winner

2nd half over/under

Exact score

Corners over/under